ORANGE, ROCKLAND, DUTCHESS, ULSTER, SULLIVAN PUTNAM NEW CASES RISE TO 40 A DAY A COUNTY FOUR TIMES 10 AND UNDER OVER THE SUMMER
NASSAU, SUFFOLK NEW YORK CITY UP TO 2,257 NEW CASES AS OF 3 DAYS AGO
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey September 16, 2023:
Westchester County leads the Mid Hudson Valley with 172 new cases as of September 12, based on the three-day lag in new case reporting by the CoNew York State Covid Tracker.
This gives Westchester 548 new cases, Sunday through Tuesday, 182 cases a day, on track for 1,278 new cases for the week ending today.
This extends the steady rise in persons testing positive in the hundreds a day since the Labor Day Weekend.
The pace is very close to the 3,740 new cases Westchester County saw last September this week, two weeks after 4-day weekend. That new wave of cases last September resulted in 7,136 cases in January.
The actual numbers since September now reflect antigen tests positives lab verified, included with PCR tests verified by the state. This appears to confirm there are a lot more positives out there walking around spreading the disease. Actual case numbers reported by the Covid Tracker since a year ago did not include verifications of persons verified positive by antigen tests. Those key antigen numbers are now included in the figures the Covid Tracker data is now openly sharing that I am using in downloaded data from the New York State Health Department,
The other 6 Mid Hudson counties on Tuesday show what appears a steady increase in the disease being spread in the rest of the Mid Hudson Counties averaging 40 new cases a day, the first time all summer I have seen counties other than Westchester in the region, have more than 10 cases a day.
Westchester County was reported to have 172 new covid cases Tuesday, 113 PCR verified and 59 Antigen Test Lab verified tested, indicating 34% of the positives were antigen verified and giving you a yardstick by how much previous cases growth was understated.
The last 7 days dating back from September 12, Westchester County averaged 16.8 new daily positives per 100,000 of population (Westchester has 10.04 100,000 segments in its 1,004,000 population. This means in the last 7 days Westchester averaged 169 cases a day, 1,183 cases a week, or possibly 5,540 for the month of September..
That number is chilling.
The midweek numbers of the 7-county and Westchester county positives are in the hundreds the last three weeks.
Folks are socializing giving the disease to other people who are getting sick within 2 days EARLIER in the week.
The 946 positives in Westchester from August 27 through Septermber 2, spread the covid to a possible 1,180 by today, Saturday means each person of those 946 infected 2 other persons.
With the possibility of 1,180 positive covid cases reported this week spreading only to 2 other people, this would mean we would have 2,360 new covid infections the next week.
Those positives would add to the 3,307 cases we already have this month meaning 3,540 more new cases added to the 3,307 we have as of September 12 for a total of approximately 6,847. That is amazingly the exact number Westchester had last September! (6,847)
How are the other Mid-Hudson region counties doing? They’re in trouble. The other Mid-Hudson 6 are spreading at an average of 41 new infections a day per county.
Last Tuesday, September 12, Orange County reported 84 new covid cases.
Rockland reported 58
Dutchess had 52.
Ulster had 24
All summer long the 6 counties other than Westchester, reporting under the old system prior to September 1, averaged under 10 new infections a day. Now they are at 40 a day.
New York City Tuesday the 12th reported 1,512 new cases:
THE BRONX 295
RICHMOND, S.i. 80
NASSAU AND SUFFOLK BOTH LEAD WESTCHESTER WITH 745 NEW CASES ON TUESDAY THE 12TH