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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY State Covid Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. November 22, 2022:

Ending Saturday, Westchester recorded its 37th consecutive week (going back to March 1 , 2022 of 1,000 new covid cases in a week with 1,339 last week.

THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF NOVEMBER 2022 IN COVID: 1,339 cases last week, with vaccines! Last week ended Saturday was the 37th consecutive week of 1,000 new covid cases a week

In  the week of November 14 to 20,  2021, when there were no vaccines available the total infections for the week was 1,041–298 persons less than last week in Westchester County– 1,339 infections last week.

 The average number of cases last Nov 14-20 was 148 a day, (with no vaccines in any arms).

Last week in Westchester the infections of 1,339 mean 192 persons a day were  testing positive (lab-verified).

The infection rate of Westchester residents testing positive last week was 6% compared to a 2% infection rate the month of November 2021. Why is the infection rate more now with vaccines?

Persons are not getting vaccinated fully. They are not going in for boosters. And most of all society has gone back normal. Few wear masks. Masks are not required wearing in school, or restaurants. Socialization is burgeoning.

It would do well to remember that we were feeling very good about covid in November 2021. However, the 1,041 cases one year ago, were the first over 1,000 cases numhers turned in by Westchester County since the third week in September. Infections stayed under 1,000 for the full month of October, averaging around 500. Then on the week of November 14-20 , with a 2% infection rate the number hit 1,041 for the week

After that November infections built over Thanksgiving, and the first 3 weeks of December to 12,063 infections the week before Christmas, December 19 to 25:

Sunday: 957; Monday: 825; Tuesday: 1,400; Wednesday:1,800; Thursday: 2,400; Friday: 2,900; Saturday, Christmas Day: 1,900 : 12,063 infections. As you may recall, this set the stage for 26,000 infections in mid January as socializing spread the disease.

Schools spread it too even though we were on a combination of remote and class learning.

Today Westchester is infecting at 192 persons a day. However there is thanks to all of those of you who have completed their full vaccinations and boosters, Westchesterites infected with covid two weeks ago only infected  1 other person. This keeps the spread even. This infection or spread rate as I call it, is derived by dividing 1,339 infections ended last Saturday by the 1,356 infections the week of October 30 through November 5.

This 1 new infection spreading Covid to  1 other person is the positive we take away from this analysis.

My concern though is the the 6% positive rate of lab-certified positives afflicting Westchester. Why? Because there is a difference between the average number of daily new cases in Westchester by population and the number of cases that should produce. If people are not testing or worse not quarantining and socializing when they ignore an antigen self test positive. You could expect the 6% positive going ahead to apply across the board of test quantities.

Last week Westchester averaged 13.2 new daily cases per 100,000 of population. Westchester has 1,004,457 according to the 2020 census.  Multiply 10.04 times 13.2 and you get 1,325 daily cases in Westchester a day, multiply that by 10.4  times and you get 137 cases a day in Westchester County multiply it by 7 times that is  959 a week a little less than the rate we are now at 1,339 a week. You are running  380 above the average number of daily cases a week. Multiply that by 4 weeks from now and you reach 5,356 cases a week by the week before Christmas at the 1 to 1 infection rate.

If the socialization factor goes out of control due to uncaccinated, or not fully vaccinated people stronger covid variants. You are conservatively guessing as low as 5,000 spreading the disease the week before Christmas;

The concern I have, and that is just my opinion, is that the 6% positive rate on lab-certified tests is a possible hidden covid spread.

Here’s why last week’s testing averaged 6% positive a day in Westchester County, but that was based on 3,000 Lab-verified tests a day. That yielded 180 new positives a day 1,260 new positives a day (a 100 less than the actual total of 1,339, which I attribute to persons infected towards the end of previous weeks. Just a note here: infections have been coming faster and higher in the middle of week again for the first three weeks in November, again a commingling factor is at work here.

Suppose we tested 6,000 instead of  2,912 average tests per day last week. Six percent of 6,000 a day is 360 positives a day or 2,520 a week, resulting in 10,080 infections the week before Christmas even the infected new cases continued to spread to only one person;

Make out that we test 10,000, the figure we used to do at the heights of the disease last January, If 6% of Westchester residents testing in a 10,000 universe you get that is 600 a day, 4,200 infections a week, or over 4 weeks,  that is 16,800 new covid cases by Christmas

Now 6% positives on lab-verified tests may go down. It had better;

Remember, socialization with care, masking, and getting shots those of you who have ignored them is essential in keeping that ability to spread only to 1 person or less.

If the unknown gap of how the current 6% positive rate the county is sustaining compares whether spreads at 6% across a whole quantity of tests, is looming big;

Because when persons infected last number were spreading at 2% we produced 12,000 new cases by December 25.

Shots, please. Masks for your own safety. Self test with antigens as Dr. JetelIna advises.

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