332 A DAY. NEW CASES SOAR IN MIDWEEK AFTER WEEKEND.
CASES RISE 3 OF LAST 4 WEEKS. JULY: 10, 292 POSITIVES IF CURRENT 300 PLUS A DAY AVERAGE SUSTAINS THE SPREADING.
5TH SUMMER WAVE LOOMS AND HAS ALREADY STARTED.
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. July 4, 2022:
The New York Times ran a feature Sunday, on page 14 of the first section, a pictorial “What’s the vibe right now?” with interviews with persons in the five boroughs who gave answers such as “You Still Live, you still enjoy,” “We’re getting through with smiles,” and “They’re ready to get out and live their life,” “People are more careful,” and “Things are slightly getting back to normal.”
In Westchester people are getting back to normal and they are spreading covid 230 times more than they did last June. The 5 Boroughs of New York since last Tuesday reported 16,492 new positives, 3,298 a day.
The Mid-Hudson region on Saturday reported 549 positives with Westchester reporting 247 of those. Nassau and Suffolk counties reported 961 positives.
The 9 counties surrounding New York City totaled 1,510 positive cases , running at an infection rate of a disturbing 10% positives a day, and the 9 counties have new positives that are 50% of what New York City with 8 million people compared the 5 million of the 9 counties is a pattern that is not going away any time soon;
Last June after the state legislature took away Governor Cuomo’s emergency powers over covid policy, restrictions were lifted people went back to restaurants but still were careful enough so that there were only 450 new positive cases in June. New positives were only 15 a day throughout the county.
Yet still that 450 positives last June jump-started a second wave of covid by August 1st. That sustained itself to a third wave by mid-December that turned into a massive wave in January, the fourth wave— then along came the vaccines to cut that growth by the end of April.
Now the last 30 days the county is spreading the disease at 300 new positives a day.
If this keeps up, July will see 9,300 – person to person. But wait it could be a lot more if the spread rate of the B.A. variants take hold.
What is happening?
People are not taking precautions, not getting vaccinated and not vaccinating their children. Young people may be spreading the disease. But, we do not know. We are not getting demographics steadily on who is getting the disease. We need those to make vaccination decisions.
The other phenomenon that is sustaining more spread this year is people are testing themselves at home.
If they are positive they I believe are not reporting it. Or they go for a PRC lab test and then they are reported positive. This indicates to me that there are a lot more persons positive out there who have not been reported.
The social scene, the shopping scene the entertainment scene the massive fireworks displays around the county are going to give covid another chance to spread.
If you look at the last month covid log below for Tuesdays through Fridays, positive have jacked up consistenly the last 4 weeks of June…this indicates that people go out on the weekend or social get symptoms then go for tests and since they get infected more quickly with the disease variants circulating now, they get positive results Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday and Friday the mid-week surge which has shown up every week like clockwork. You can depend on it.
On the numbers, Westchester County is doing very badly we lead all 7 counties in infections because we are largest in population. We are testing very little.
We tested 18,669 persons the last week June 26 to July 2 and 2,077 tested positive an average of 9.29% positive tests on 18,669 tested. That is a big spread rate considering we are testing an average 2,667 persons a day with Lab reported test results.
I hate to think how many persons are walking around that have not tested .
Looking at June infection rates in Westchester County, this confidence with almost no one masking, and heavy socializing, has resulted in 10, 292 new positives in 32 days (June has two split weeks, May June and June into July).
Last week with graduations hot weather, beach weather, was the first time since the second week in June that Westchester returned to 2,077 new positives between June 26 and July 2, that is 297 a day.
A pattern ahead at 300 infections a day could produce 9,300 in July in 31 days or more the spread rates of the new variants are as volatile as predicted.
Locally Westchester has 22 communities that have averaged over 100 cases over the last two weeks. Here they are: