WPCNR COVID MONITOR. From NY Covid Tracker. Observations by John F. Bailey. November 30, 2021:
There is no doubt that the Fourth Wave of Covid misery is gaining momentum.
In Thanksgiving week between Sunday November 21 and Saturday, November 27, 1,086 Westchester residents tested positive for covid out of 45,729 tested, a positive infection rate of 2.4%
That percentage of spread is 2,000 persons less than the expected number of increased infections from two weeks ago ended November 13.
Those 751 persons tested positive in 50,248 tests ended November 13–1 person infected 5 persons during that week, when the average infection rate was 1.5. At the end of Saturday, November 27, 14 days later those 751 infections from November 13 had resulted in 1,086 new cases, indicating by dividing 1,086 by 751 an infection rate of 1 new infected person 2 weeks spreading the disease to 5 persons (1:446 additional infections.)
If you multiply 5 persons by 751, you get over 3,755 new infections. The new persons testing positive two weeks ago produced 1,086 new infections. This is solid confidence the vaccinations are working and limiting the spread.
However in two weeks, the 1086 infections this week if we continue at the 1 person infects 5 spread rate (based on how many new infections resulted from the infected two weeks), or if it increases (given that we have not seen all the infections of two weeks ago impact due to dates when they test positive), you would have possibly 3,000 infections last week if the vaccination effectiveness number of persons vaccinated and Under-12s vaccinated continues on the upswing it will definitely slow the the spread from one new infection to the other because less people will be infected.
The positive lower number of infections than expected, 1086, rather than 3,000 as the spread rate of two weeks ago would tell us, indicates Westchester is vaccinating at a rate that is limiting infections or those unvaccinated are being more careful.
Nevertheless, cases continue to multiply each week.
10 weeks ago at the end of the week of September 26, Westchester reported 695 cases. As of the week ended November 13, Saturday we had 751 new cases, a minor increase. As of November 20 8 weeks later, Westchester went back over 1,000 cases a week at 1,108 and on November 27 the county is again in at 1,086 cases.
The last time we were at 1,000 cases was the week of September 12 to 18 (2 weeks after Labor Day).
On Sunday, November 28, the increase in new positives started the new week with 167 testing positive of 3,995, a 4.2% infection rate, but this was a very small test quantity. Westchester is averaging 155 new infections a day last week, despite the lower number of expected infections.
Governor Hochul also reinstated statewide masking indoors which may, if observed and enforced, tamp down the surge back over 1,000 infections a week in Westchester County. The entire Mid-Hudson Region including Westchester is seeing more infections paticularly in all the counties surrounding Westchester, but Westchester leads all 7 counties in infections the latest numbers FOR THE DAY OF Sunday November 28:
MIDHUDSON REGION NOVEMBER 28 SUNDAY INFECTIONS
WESTCHESTER: 167 INFECTIONS IN 3,995 tests 4.2 Infection Rate
ORANGE 128 INFECTIONS IN 1,735 TESTS, 7.4%
DUTCHESS 77 INFECTIONS IN 1,243 TESTS 6.2%
ULSTER 51 INFECTIONS IN 754 TESTS 6.8%
ROCKLAND 48 INFECTIONS IN 974 TESTS 4.9%
SULLIVAN – 41 INFECTIONS IN 357 TESTS 11.5%
TOTAL MID-HUDSON INFECTIONS: 543
The counties surrounding New York City, including Nassau and Suffolk Counties have exceeded New York City infections for 14 of the last 19 days, with Nassau and Suffolk County averaging over 1,200 cases a day, DOUBLE the infections of all seven counties in the Mid-Hudson region.