IMPACT OF GEORGIA U.S. SENATE SEAT RUNOFF ELECTIONS.

WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. Special to WPCNR from Dr. Steven White, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Syracuse Univeristy. November 6, 2020:

Editor’s Note: Dr. Steven White, an assistant professor of political science at Syracuse University who has studied Southern politics extensively. Dr. White specializes in American politics, American political development, race and politics.

Dr. Stephen White

Dr. White notes the impact of this possibility is crucial for many reasons, most notably Vice President Biden’s ability to fill a cabinet (should he win) with progressive choices who would not get confirmation with a Republican controlled Senate.

“If Democrats win the two Senate races in Georgia, their odds of being able to pass the legislation in their platform goes up dramatically.

That said, even then this would still be constrained by the pivotal votes of more conservative Democrats like Senator Joe Manchin.

If Democrats lose, though, their options are a lot more limited.

Not only would they need the support of more moderate Republican Senators like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, they would also have to deal with agenda control by the Republican majority.

Senator Mitch McConnell might simply try to keep bills from coming to a floor vote, even if there might very well be a bipartisan majority coalition in favor of them. 

This also speaks to remarkable changes in the political environment of Georgia. Even in her loss to Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton only lost Georgia by about 5 points (similar to Obama’s 2008 loss margin).

In the 2018 gubernatorial election, Stacey Abrams came within about a point and a half of defeating her Republican opponent, Brian Kemp.

If Biden ends up ahead—and if the state elects one and possibly two Democratic Senators—it would be an astonishing shift that brings to fruition the state’s gradual transition from being a red state to a purple one.”

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Infection Rate for COVID in Non-Cluster Areas: 1.7%. In Clusters: 3.04%

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. From Governor Andrew M. Cuomo. November 6, 2020:

 Yesterday, there were more than 100,000 new COVID cases in the U.S. Every expert told us that come the fall, cases would go up. We expected this and can effectively deal with the outbreaks by our micro-cluster strategy. But one of our very best tools in this battle to prevent the spread of the virus is if each and every one of us wears a mask. Wearing a mask is about respect, it’s about community and it’s about love. And remember that mask wearing is mandatory on public transit.

It’s going to take the work of every New Yorker so we all need to Mask Up. We can’t let our guard down as we spend more time indoors. We can’t say just this one time I’ll skip the mask. We can stay the course New York. Together we can beat this virus. 

Chart of the Day: Yesterday, New York State reported over 160,000 diagnostic tests. Here’s what else you need to know : 

1. The positivity rate in the “micro-cluster” focus areas fell was 3.04 percent yesterday. The statewide positivity rate excluding these areas was 1.70 percent. Of the 161,019 tests reported yesterday, 2,997, or 1.86 percent, were positive. Total hospitalizations were at 1,277. Sadly we lost 24 New Yorkers.  

2. The January 2021 Regents exams are canceled. Due to COVID-19 concerns, the New York State Education Department decided to cancel the examinations across the state to ensure the safety of both students and educators. The Education Department will also ask the Board of Regents to adopt emergency regulations and apply specific exemptions so not to negatively impact students. A decision on the June and August exams have not been decided yet.  

3. We can’t underestimate the strain of COVID fatigue. Mental health is just as important as physical health. New Yorkers can call the State’s mental health hotline at 1-844-863-9314 for free emotional support, consultations & referrals to a provider or visit the Office of Mental Health for resources.  

 4. Download the COVID Alert NY app today. New York launched an Exposure Notification App so New Yorkers can help stop the spread of COVID-19 and receive exposure alert notifications without compromising privacy or personal information. Click here to download it directly to your iPhone. Click here to download it directly to your Android device.   

   If you were forwarded this email, you can subscribe to New York State’s Coronavirus Updates here. Ever Upward, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo

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The Election Situation Thursday Night

WPCNR NEWS AND COMMENT. Special to WPCNR by Stephen Rolandi, Public Policy Analyst, November 5, 2020:

Editor’s Note: On Monday Stephen Rolandi analyzed the Presidential Election for WPCNR predicting a Joseph Biden victory. Here is Mr. Rolandi’s view of the results as of Thursday evening, which are solely his own opinion and do not reflect the views of his employers, Pace University and City University of New York.

Here’s how I see the remaining states:

Biden – 253

He likely wins PA   + 20 – Biden down now by only 60,000 since Tuesday night when Trump had a lead of 600,000. There are more than enough votes in Philadelphia & Allegheny (Pitts.) counties for Biden to win here. 

May win GA. + 16 – he’s down by only 3400 now (as of 8 PM). (Now 1,902 as of 10 P.M.)

Biden likely wins Nevada + 6 — he’s leading here with 13,000, with more ballots to count.

===============================================

Trump – 217

Probably wins NC + 15

Has a chance in AZ  (+ 11) with 200,000 ballots left to count

So, by my math, Biden would have 295; Trump would have 243.

Trump needs to win PA & Georgia  to win re-election – if he loses the vote count in these states, he has to go to court, and so far, I’m not impressed with his “arguments” — he needs someone with the stature of a James Baker to make the case publicly for him, and it’s not happening, as yet. I think the best Trump probably has is Rudy Giuliani and Jay Sekolow. He needs a top-notch Law School Professor, like Alan Dershowitz. Trump is his own worst enemy.

State election laws govern here, unless Trump can somehow prove that his constitutional rights as a candidate have been violated. See Bush v. Gore (2000).

BOTTOM LINE:

Biden will likely be declared the winner by the networks (Friday or over the week-end). Trump’s only option then would be to go to court to overturn ballot results in PA. & Georgia, and perhaps Nevada or Arizona.

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