F

WPCNR SUNDAY COVID ROUND-UP. From the NY State Covid-19 Tracker. Observations by John F. Bailey. December 5, 2021:

The Covid Tracker of New York continues to report results on a 48-hour delay, it has been doing so for five days now, meaning Sunday’s covid cases reflect the new case covid positives reported Friday, December 3.

The Westchester County positives Friday number 388 up 66 from the day before (up 20%.)

The last day Westchester County had close to 400 cases was in the fourth month of the second wave of Covid in early April on April 8 when the county had 423 new persons testing positive. Within a few days of that, new infections began to taper down to 100 cases by the end of April, an Easter miracle. Cases eased down through May averaging 30 cases a day by the end of May.

Then former Governor Andrew Cuomo began to lift restrictions “coming back smarter,” but ignored most of his caution too soon uncharacteristically (after the state legislature stripped him of the authority to manage covid policy, and had initiated a probe of sexual allegations against him).

The governor within weeks had lifted restrictions. In June infections plunged to about 20 new cases a day. Euphoria created a very loose and careless atmosphere over the July 4th weekend. Anything went!

Within two weeks after July 5, infections per day climbed from 9 on July 5 to 51 on July 19, and continued to climb to 98 on August 1 to 147 on August 2 to averaging over 100 a day August 9 to August 14 to over 200 a day August 15 through August 31.

Since Labor Day infections averaged in the high 100s finally declining in the first week of October to below the 100 a day level in late October.

As holidays in October created more socializing and variants had their effect, November saw a new Fourth Wave begin. By the end of November just before Thanksgiving new covid infections were averaging 150 a day as of November 20.

That 150 a day has now doubled in two weeks to over 300 a day.

The Thanksgiving weekend has spread the disease very quickly resulting in a 300 new infections day total from November 30 through Friday December 3.

The county has gone from averaging 155 a day on the Friday after Thanksgiving, and 3 days later, hitting 311 infections on November 30; 359 on December 1, 322 on December 2.

Now we learn today Sunday 388 new poor people test positive Friday.

As I wrote yesterday 300 infections a day could mean a lot more persons getting sick from Covid in two weeks because 2/3 of those testing positive have not been vaccinated. The County Executive has assured us the hospitalizations are 52 as of Monday and are sustainable.

So the big mystery is what is the hospitalization rate of unvaccinated persons testing positive for covid the last two weeks before Monday, the 21st of November.

There were 2,127 total new covid infections from November 14 through Saturday November 27 (13 days).. That is 163 a day. If we divide 52 by 2,127 we get a hospitalized rate of 2.4% for the covid infected two weeks ago: 52 infections

Now depending on whether this 300 new infections a day, pushing on 400 as of Friday, continues let’s see what happens. A week of 300 infections yields 2,100, yielding 52 hospitalizations. The more infections you have the more hospitalizations. Four hundred infections a day yields 2,800 new cases a week which if hospitalized at the same 2.4% of unvaccinated persons means 67 hospitalizations a week in two weeks. Still not a problem if hospitalizations are stabilized at the 50 level now and stay there.

However if the holidays coming exponentially spread and double the infections to say 500 a day, 3,500 a week you’re up to 84 hospitalizations weekly. If the newly infected get more seriously infected you might get more hospitalizations. then again we may not. Six hundred a day means 4,200 new cases a week of mostly unvaccinated people. That many cases may drive hospitalizations up to 100 at the 2.4% rate. Seven hundred means 117 infections a week. Of course you do not know how sick these new infected people will become and how long to cure. We do not know how long hospital stays are now for covid sufferers being hospitalized. We do not know how many go into the hospital and are immediately stabilized and released.

Looking the way the new infections are going up is sobering. It is imperative if you are not vaccinated you get vaccinated.

Posted in Uncategorized

“HOG” Strips the Glamour off the Rich and Famous

WPCNR SUNDAY REVIEW. Cinema by John F. Bailey. December 5, 2021:

Lady Gaga as Patrizia Reggiani the woman who murdered Maurizio Gucci (Adam Driver) after he divorces her ascends to another level.

She is powerful, emotional, dominates, builds the evil of her character believably through the movie. Oscar on the way for Lady Gaga! But she won’t get it because she’s too good. Too self-made. An original.

The irony of HOG: it does not glamorize the celebrity world. It explodes the myth the rich and famous are better than you and me. The behavior of all the main characters in this movie is not admirable or inspiring in any way. The story is true to life at the very wobbly top.

The House of Gucci is the world of “The Little Foxes,” the play by Lillian Hellman. Everybody wants what you have and love turns to ashes through greed, jealousy and clasping and retaining power. Instead of love being for another person, the love turns into loving yourself. Ego sickeningly trumps common sense and concern for where your choices are taking you as young lovers turn into old enemies.

HOG’S real mission is accomplished: laying out there not too subtlely how shallow, self-centered the rich & powerful are. The characters have no class the way they treat each other, no compassion. They are weak, ruthless when threatened.

Each of the fashion moguls of Gucci stops at nothing to advance themselves at the expense of others.

Al Pacino as the uncle Aldo in the New York Gucci store is terrific. Jefffrey Irons is the essence of the patriarch, Rudolfo Gucci:  he has been aged to a bitter vintage: no feeling, no body,  no compassion or love. It’s all about him. Irons plays Rudolfo for the vampire he is, sucking the life out of people.

The funeral scene as he lays in his coffin is great. Because no one is mourning his death.

The humor in this movie is doubled-edged to show desperation and how sensitive these weak people are and insecure despite their power.

 Lady Gaga  becomes more secure throughout and the appeal of the world of the rich and famous gets to her. Her character transformation is a tour de force. More big roles coming for her.

One consistent flaw in movies today is the absolutely poor audio. This one is particular poorly presented.

The audio I heard even with hearing aids, is too base treble. Actors swallow and clip their lines. They whisper and II defy you to hear what is said.  The audio is either a fault of the voice coaches, or the audio or the recording systems or the theater you hear the sound track.  

The Italian accents are very difficult to understand in all the actors. You get the gist through the body language, dripping, chilly, passionate, stifling, infuriating ruthless, thick lust and acid flows like lava through the script. Like “The Godfather,” a horribly inarticulate movie you understand what’s happening through attitude.

Gaga with gestures and her emotional command works up believably to murder, makes women admire her and men, too. Men like strong women.  But do they really? You will find yourself asking that question.

You do not cross Lady Gaga. She sells this movie. She is right at the top, not over it.

 Director Ridley Scott’s treatment of the assassination of  Lady Gaga’s husband  Maurizio is solid, ruthless and shows what murder is, a ruthless taking of a human life.

This is a long movie, but it seems short because the changes in Lady Gaga’s growth and how Driver’s neglect of her are ominous. Driver does a subtle truly ugly portrayal of how Gaga’s efforts to help him fester a smouldering resentment for damaging his ego leading to divorce.

Even though you know the end, you stay because the relationship slowly cracking and love dying and being rejected fascinates.

The way that Gaga encourages Maurizio to be someone he is not to protect him while advancing herself in the House of  Gucci is deftly done, but also turns his ego against her.

Very instructive. Driver and Gaga are Rags to Riches to Ruin. They ruin each other. They love what the other is which destroys the foundation of the love for the other.

A love story turns into a horror story.

Posted in Uncategorized

No “Conveyence of Deed” Filed on FASNY Sale of Ridgeway Property Yet.

WPCNR WATCH ON THE RHINE.. Update December 5, 2021:

As of yesterday, December 4, despite a news release last Tuesday announcing the French American School of New York had sold the Ridgeway Country Club parcel in White Plains in its entirety to Farrell Building Company of Bridgehamption, WPCNR has learned that no “Conveyance of Deed” is listed in Westchester County Clerk records,

Dan Seidel, one of the attorneys for the Gedney Association who appealed the decision in favor of French American School of New York and the City of White Plains, said he would take no action one way or another to proceed with argument or withdraw the appeal until the transaction is officially registered. as completed.

At this time, Mr. Seidel awaits an “argument” date set by the Appellate Court in Brooklyn and is planning on it.

Posted in Uncategorized

330 NEW CASES A DAY MEANS 4,620 NEW WESTCHESTER CASES WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS

WPCNR COVID 19 OBSERVER. From the NYS COVID-19 TRACKER COMMENTS BY WPCNR’S JOHN BAILEY December 4, 3:40 PM EST:

The state covid tracker caught UP with Thursday’s new covid cases this afternoon, POSTING Westchester County with 322 new cases Thursday (down from 359 Wednesday).

On Thursday, Westchester’s 322 new cases of covid represented a 3.7% postivity rate on 8,676 tested. This is the start, it appears, of growing compounding of new infections culminating the week before Christmas, based on how many persons are spreading Covid to the uninfected:

The 322 cases Thursday divided by the 151 cases two weeks ago (November 18) indicates the virus is spread by every newly positive covid tester to two other persons for every new person covid positive within an approximate 2 week period.

By December 16 those 322 new cases may infect 644 new persons.

At 300 new cases a day now for three straight days the most new cases a day since last April 15, Westchester County must drive this down at once. It also demands heavier testing. And not just testing people thinking they have symptoms. Here’s why:

If the three day rise starting November 30 does not drop or worse sustains its rate of infection — 7 days of 300 infections a day through this weekend could bring 4,200 new infections the week before Christmas (Dec. 16-25).

Subsequent new infections discovered that week of December 16-25 adding to the week between Christmas and New Years infections may create an tsunami of infections in January. If most new infections are unvaccinated, how many will require hospitalizations?

If just 25% of those before Christmas projections (4,620) need hospitalization over Christmas, that is 1155 hospital beds.

If half those 4,620 infections most probably due to that they are not vaccinated need hospitalization that is 2,100 pushing up on Westchester County available hospital beds (2,700). Are the medications effective enough to keep hospitalizations of unvaccinated victims of covid, down low at less than 100 a week? That’s the gamble.

I just reread that last paragraph — that is quite a bet the county and the Mid-Hudson region is making.

Nassau and Suffolk have already bet the house.

At close to 2,000 infections a day now they are in serious bed trouble already and don’t know it. They don’t know it. How can they not know it?

The bet is that unvaccinated cases will not get sick enough to be hospitalized on a high level. This is a reasonable assumption given now Westchester only has 52 hospitalizations last week. It was also stated in this week’s covid breifing by the County Executive George Latimer that 2/3 of new cases are unvaccinated.

The county is confident at the present rate of hospitalizations (52 last week), that they have enough capacity. But that was last week.

This sudden outbreak of almost double infections with the highly social travel Thanksgiving 7-day effect, must be watched with an action plan if the 300 a day trend continues in Westchester and the 6 other counties in the region have no new hospital capacity to match Westchester.

If Westchester Medical Center is expected to handle overflow of patient needs in Rockland, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange,Putnam and Sullivan counties they may be caught flat-footed and understaffed. As the last 7 days showed the spread can rise into a tsunami on you due to human frailty, overconfidence, the need to be together and no-vaccinationees by Christmas.

It appears the Thanksgiving weekend has unleashed a new surge of the fourth wave in 7 days! The doubling of rise in infections started with the last week in September (the legacy of Labor Day Weekend)

The number of infections jumped November 30 to 311. December 1 they went up to 359. December 2, 322..

We are now just 7 days after the holiday travel and Thanksgiving holidays started.

Infections the last three days through Thursday December 2 are 311,359 and 322., an average: 330. If that 330 does not decline sharply and continues, 2 new persons would per every 1 newly testing positive, could produce approximately 4,620 infections the week before Christmas.

The entire 7-county MidHudson region posts including covid-overwhelmed Nassau and Suffolk County had 2,493 new cases of covid down 748 from Wednesday’s 3,137.( down 25%).

New York City showed 2,265 new cases, with Brooklyn and Queens (adjacent Nassau and Suffolk County) having 713 and 598 separately with Nassau and Suffolk with 688 new cases and 830 new cases continuing on fire for the second straight day.

Nassau had 856 cases Wesnesday, and 680 on Thursday. Suffolk County dipped to 830 new cases Thursday, down from 1,103 on Wednesday.

Nassau and Suffolk continue to be the problem for the region spreading cases west into Queens and Brooklyn, it would appear.

The 10 COUNTIES ENCIRCLING NYC HAVE 2,493 NEW COVID CASES, 265 MORE THAN NYC’S 2,265. FOR 10 DAYSTHE 10 SUBURBAN COUNTIES HAVE LEAD ALL NEW YORK CITY CASES- THE 10 OUTSIDE NYC HAD MOST CASES FOR 17 OF 22 DAYS (3 WEEKS)

Posted in Uncategorized