WESTCHESTER LOWERS NEW COVID INFECTIONS 10TH WEEK IN A ROW. NYC NEW CASES OF COVID INCREASE A THIRD EACH DAY AFTER SCHOOLS UNMASKED. COINCIDENCE? OR TREND?

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS MONITOR. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis by John F. Bailey. March 13, 2022:

Westchester County continued to keep coronavirus cases stubbornly dropping last week for the 10th consecutive week with high vaccination rates of Westchester responsible for Westchester flattening 26,002 new infections in one week the week after Christmas to 582 new cases of covid the week of March 6 through March 12.

As the WPCNR COVID LOG below shows, Westchester slowed new infections of covid from 754 last week to 582 for the week with cases moving up the last three days of the week.

The WPCNR DAILY COVID NOTEBOOK (BELOW) boils down the covid containment pace: Last week the county slowed to 83 new persons testing positive for covid each day, with an average 4,794 persons testing each of the 7 days. Total tests administered was 33,562 with 583 new persons testing positive, a 2% infection rate.

Two weeks ago, 754 persons tested positive. By Saturday, two weeks later (the incubation period for the coronavirus and its varieants to infect others), the 754 cases dating back to Sunday February 27, spread the disease to 582 other persons. By dividing last week cases 582 by 754 new cases total two weeks ago, we find each new infection two weeks ago to 7 persons.

Now last week was a key week: masks came off in the schools in the county. So far we do not see the results of infections from the unmasking relief.

New York City which unmasked its school students across the five boroughs, showed a 418 new case surge in new cases Friday, lifting new infections to 1,087, when all five boroughs had average about 600 new cases a day for about two weeks straight.

On Saturday, that trend continued in all 5 boroughs with NYC : 693 new cases up from 418 the previous day. Is this a possible indication of unmasking in the city schools sharply increasing new infections in the schools (within two days!), perhaps not but it goes against what has happened in New York City for two weeks and now infections have gone up by 1/3 each day apparently.

School populations in Westchester should be wary.

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WESTCHESTER NEW COVID INFECTIONS 91 CASES FRIDAY. GROWING OR DECLINING CALL UNCLEAR. NUMBER OF INFECTIONS FOR WEEK WILL EXCEED 504 OF LAST WEEK. WESTCHESTER DAILY NEW INFECTIONS AVERAGE IS 81 A DAY FOR 6 DAYS–485 TOTAL.

NEW YORK 5 BOROUGHS NEW INFECTIONS RISE BY 418 NEW CASES FRIDAY TO 1,087 AFTER 2 WEEKS OF AVERAGE 600 CASES FOR ALL 5 BOROUGHS. MID HUDSON COUNTIES AND NASSAU AND SUFFOLK HAD HAD 393 INFECTIONS FRIDAY DOWN WHILE NYC SURGED TO 1,087

WPCNR COVID MONITOR UPDATE. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis by John F. Bailey. March 12, 2022:

New Westchester Covid cases reporting this afternoon shows Westchester in a neutral position.

If Saturday’s figure of new cases continues at the 81 new cases average per day the last 6 days, Westchester will go over the 504 new cases last week by a wide margin. (Ifewer people test today because of the inclement weather, we may not go over by a wide margin.)

The WPCNR DAILY COVID NOTEBOOK

After six days this week from last Sunday Westchester with an average of 4,764 tests each day for six days, (total tests of 28,585), show a daily infection rate of 2%., when you take the number of positive cases for the week through six days (485) and divide them by 4,764 AVERAGE test positives a day shows that the positives are infecting at a 2% rate, exceeding the 1.1 neutral rate that stops the disease from doubling. The 2% rate may indicate this week is when Westchester maybe starting to exceed the containing and declining rate. Testing daily infection rate (with fluctuating test universes) may be giving us a false sense of confidence.

So when infections come in for Saturday tomorrow this may be either a false increase that will reverse itself.

The most curious and troubling aspect of today’s Covid Notebook is how The New York City five boroughs have gone up above 1,000 new infections for the first time in 2 weeks on Friday. This may or may not be related to the new masks in schools rule that took affect this week when New York City students returned to public schools and did not have to wear masks.

Westchester County by contrast continued to lower in new cases.

THE WPCNR COVID LOGBOOK

Persons have not been testing in the above 9,000 to 10,000 range so naturally the new case numbers are lower, and daily number of people testing flucuates, causing lower infection rates daily in Westchester all week long the infection rate averages on a daily basis, 1.7%.

Around the Mid-Hudson region new infections are very low in Orange Rockland and Dutchess counties, which used to be very high. Ulster, Sullivan and Putnam are under 20. Even Nassau and Suffolk counties once notorious have trimmed infections to less than a 100 a county.

Next week is when we should see results on whether Westchester schools are showing a rate of infections that may be showing growth with acceptable containment, or growth without acceptable entertainment.

The New York City spike in infections may be a routine thing, or it may be a talisman of what can be expected.

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