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NEW YORK 5 BOROUGHS NEW INFECTIONS RISE BY 418 NEW CASES FRIDAY TO 1,087 AFTER 2 WEEKS OF AVERAGE 600 CASES FOR ALL 5 BOROUGHS. MID HUDSON COUNTIES AND NASSAU AND SUFFOLK HAD HAD 393 INFECTIONS FRIDAY DOWN WHILE NYC SURGED TO 1,087

WPCNR COVID MONITOR UPDATE. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis by John F. Bailey. March 12, 2022:

New Westchester Covid cases reporting this afternoon shows Westchester in a neutral position.

If Saturday’s figure of new cases continues at the 81 new cases average per day the last 6 days, Westchester will go over the 504 new cases last week by a wide margin. (Ifewer people test today because of the inclement weather, we may not go over by a wide margin.)

After six days this week from last Sunday Westchester with an average of 4,764 tests each day for six days, (total tests of 28,585), show a daily infection rate of 2%., when you take the number of positive cases for the week through six days (485) and divide them by 4,764 AVERAGE test positives a day shows that the positives are infecting at a 2% rate, exceeding the 1.1 neutral rate that stops the disease from doubling. The 2% rate may indicate this week is when Westchester maybe starting to exceed the containing and declining rate. Testing daily infection rate (with fluctuating test universes) may be giving us a false sense of confidence.

So when infections come in for Saturday tomorrow this may be either a false increase that will reverse itself.

The most curious and troubling aspect of today’s Covid Notebook is how The New York City five boroughs have gone up above 1,000 new infections for the first time in 2 weeks on Friday. This may or may not be related to the new masks in schools rule that took affect this week when New York City students returned to public schools and did not have to wear masks.

Westchester County by contrast continued to lower in new cases.

Persons have not been testing in the above 9,000 to 10,000 range so naturally the new case numbers are lower, and daily number of people testing flucuates, causing lower infection rates daily in Westchester all week long the infection rate averages on a daily basis, 1.7%.

Around the Mid-Hudson region new infections are very low in Orange Rockland and Dutchess counties, which used to be very high. Ulster, Sullivan and Putnam are under 20. Even Nassau and Suffolk counties once notorious have trimmed infections to less than a 100 a county.

Next week is when we should see results on whether Westchester schools are showing a rate of infections that may be showing growth with acceptable containment, or growth without acceptable entertainment.

The New York City spike in infections may be a routine thing, or it may be a talisman of what can be expected.