TONIGHT at 8 A SPECIAL REBROADCAST OF “PEOPLE TO BE HEARD” JOHN BAILEY INTERVIEWS COUNTY LEGISLATOR BEN BOYKIN ON WHAT’S HAPPENING ON COUNTY LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT REDISTRICTING. FIOS CH. 45, OPTIMUM CH 76 & WWW.WPCOMMUNITY MEDIA.ORG
PROPERTY TAX EXEMPTIONS PASSED BY BOARD OF LEGISLATORS FOR SENIORS AND PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES
WPCNR COUNTY CLARION-LEDGER. From the Westchester County Board of Legislators. October 5, 2022:
The Westchester County Board of Legislators unanimously voted to enact the Senior Citizens and Persons with Disabilities Home Owner’s Tax Exemption at their meeting held Monday night. The new law expands income eligibility for property tax exemptions by increasing the maximum household annual limit from $29,000 to $50,000.
The amendment to the current local law is a direct result of the suite of tax relief bills signed by Governor Kathy Hochul on August 8, 2022, allowing local municipalities the option to raise eligibility requirements (S.3085A/A.3956A). Eligibility for this exemption is limited to Westchester County homeowners that are either a person with disabilities or a senior citizen aged 65 years or older. The goal of the law is to allow more residents the ability to age in place within their current communities, especially for those on fixed incomes, by maintaining affordability during a time of record-high inflation.
Legislator Vedat Gashi, Chair of the Budget & Appropriations Committee and a lead sponsor of the bill, said, “We wasted no time in opting-in to the new tax exemption guidelines because it is our duty to help as many people as we can. Through this expansion, previously excluded individuals will for the first time qualify for this tax relief benefit and not have to worry about being priced out of their beloved neighborhoods.”
Legislator David Tubiolo said, “Our seniors have worked their entire lives without asking for much. All they ever wanted was the opportunity to provide for their families and contribute to their communities. We need to do our part to take care of our seniors in return and ensure they receive all the support they need to make Westchester their home forever.”
COVID STATE OF AFFAIRS: OCT 5 FROM YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST — NEW WAVE COMING– FALL BOOSTER ESSENTIAL
Here we go again. The start of a new wave. Eyes are on Western Europe, as hospitalizations are uniformly increasing. As we’ve seen throughout the pandemic, some are hospitalized “with COVID19,” but it’s important to note that the Germany’s numbers are reported purely as “for COVID19.” In other words, not only are infections increasing, but so is severe disease.
Interestingly, no new subvariant is driving this wave, as the majority of cases are still the “old” BA.5 subvariant. This means changing weather, waning immunity, and/or changing behaviors are the culprit. This theory is only solidified when we see patterns are not changing in neighboring country Israel, for example, whose weather hasn’t started changing yet
This is concerning because subvariants are brewing. They only make up a small percentage of cases for now, but they are gaining ground; historically, we feel their impact when they make up ~30-50% of cases. These subvariants will eventually add fuel to the fire.
Currently, we have a “subvariant soup” on the horizon—a mix of many different Omicrons trying to dominate the space. Below is a figure of the Omicron subvariants we are closely tracking. Each subvariant has ~10% growth advantage over BA.5, meaning it has the ability to create a wave, but not a tsunami. (As a comparison, Alpha had a growth advantage of 7%/day; the first Omicron BA.1 had a growth advantage of 25%/day).
Convergent evolution in Omicron subvariants. X-axis represents the number of spike mutations. Figure by Mark Johnson
It’s a very busy figure, but there are three specific things to notice:
- Convergent evolution. Subvariants with similar mutations are popping up independently across the globe. CA.1 popped up in one place with a R346X mutation, while BQ.1.1 popped up in a different spot with the same mutation. This pattern has been the hallmark of COVID-19, so this isn’t necessarily surprising. What is noteworthy is where these mutations are happening—a spot that helps Omicron continue to partially escape immunity.
- Notice BQ.1.1 (in red above). This is a direct descendant of BA.5. While it has the most spike mutations, we picked the BA.5 formula for U.S. fall boosters. Our boosters will work best if this subvariant dominates in the future. For now, BQ.1.1 is winning the race in Europe, so this may have a good chance of taking over in the U.S. We may get lucky.
- This is what we know. More than 90% of testing and sequencing has been stopped across the globe. This means we are largely flying blind and there may be a surprise in the mix we are unaware of just yet.
United States
Given the U.S. has mirrored European trends throughout the pandemic, a wave in the U.S. is likely coming.
Source: Pandem-ic
On a national level, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater has been decreasing the past two weeks, but that deceleration has started to level off. If we zoom in to specific jurisdictions, like Boston, there are concerning signals with sudden increases in viral wastewater levels. Wastewater will continue to be a huge asset moving forward as an early indicator of transmission in communities.
Wastewater COVID-19 Tracking | Massachusetts Water Resources Authority
We really don’t know what reported case and testing numbers mean these days, but for what it’s worth national test positivity rate has also plateaued. In the first two years of the pandemic, this metric was a consistent early indicator of what was to come.
(CDC)
If we combine five of the top new subvariant leaders in the U.S. (referred to as “Pentagon”), it’s clear that case acceleration is brewing below the surface. Given the current growth, we will likely see an impact on national metrics in mid-November.
The height of a U.S. wave is partially dependent on the number of people who get a fall booster.
Unfortunately, it looks like the majority of Americans will be going into the winter ill-prepared.
A new Kaiser Family Foundation survey found 40% of Americans are unsure if the booster is recommended for them, including about half of fully vaccinated rural residents (54%), Hispanic adults (51%), and those without a college degree (49%).
There is clearly a failure of communication and outreach. This must be a priority as vaccines continue to protect against death, severe disease, transmission, cases, and long COVID-19.
So far only 7.6 million Americans have received their fall booster.
Hospitalizations per 100K, by vaccination status in New York City. Top blue line is unvaccinated. Bottom lines are 1 booster and 2 boosters. Source Here
Bottom line
We may be in for a bumpy ride this winter.
SARS-CoV-2 is already gaining ground thanks to weather and behavior change. We expect growth to accelerate with subvariants on the horizon. There’s a lot you can do, but the lowest hanging fruit is to get your fall booster.
Also, if you’re older and test positive, remember Paxlovid.
WESTCHESTER RESIDENTIAL SALES SUSTAIN PRICES IN 2022, DECLINE IN SALES. INTEREST RATES HURT ABILITIES TO BUY. LOW INVENTORY KEEPS PRICES UP. INFLATION INFLICTED ECONOMY INHIBITS CONFIDENCE.
WPCNR REALTY REALITY. From Hudson Gateway Realtors (Edited) October 4, 2022:
Westchester County, third quarter single-family home sales of 2,006 declined 15.6% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
However, when compared to the third quarter of 2019, single-family home sales in Westchester were up 3.4%.
Condo sales in Westchester for the third quarter of 2022 decreased by 24.5% and co-op sales were on par with the previous 3rd quarter.
The County single-family median sale price of $872,000 posted a 2% increase over 2020.
The County condo median sale price of $460,000 was slightly down, and the co-op median sale price of $204,500 was 2.3% higher than the previous year 2021.
The real estate market in the lower Hudson River Valley and greater New York City suburban area continued to be battered by chronic low inventory, rising interest rates and persistent inflation during the 3rd quarter of 2022.
Resiliency and consistent buyer demand are still evident, when compared to the pre-pandemic market of 2019 three years ago.
(Editor’s note: In 2019, readers should remember real estate was lamenting the lag in sales in 2019, and prices were down. Realtors were calling homeowners in 2028 and 19 asking them to put their homes on the market. Homeowners declined because so much value in their homes had been lost due to falling prices of real estate due to reduced demand. Covid came on the scene in 2020 and people were eager to leave New York City and wanted to move into Westchester where covid was not such a danger, igniting the greatest real estate boom Westchester has seen since the 1950s.)
While total transactions are down from the previous year, median sales prices continue to increase throughout the market, driven in large part by low inventory.
HGAR contemplates a traditional seasonal market is returning replacing the reality frenzy the last two years.
Around the Mid-Hudson region, sales were not robust.
In Putnam County single-family home sales of 326 were down 10.7% compared to the third quarter of 2021, but when compared to 2019, the number of sales were almost identical. The median sales price of $505,000 was 8.6% higher than the third quarter of 2021.
Rockland County experienced a drop in transactions, with single-family home sales
down 9.2% and condo sales down 15.8%. Continuing the comparison to the second quarter of 2019, the 2022 quarter numbers are slightly ahead. The single-family median sales price of $660,000 for the third quarter of 2022 in Rockland County was 14.2% higher than 2021.
In Orange County the 3rd quarter single-family home sales number of 1,019 was down 14% over the 2021 second quarter, and the condo sales number of 138 was off an even steeper 23.3%. The single-family home median sales price was up 9.1% at $420,000 and the median condo sales price of $270,950 for the third quarter was a 13.4% increase over the 2021
third quarter.
In Sullivan County the single-family sales number of 300 transactions was just slightly higher than the 298 total of the previous year and the median sales price was up more than 10% percent when compared to the 3rd quarter of 2021
Shifting closer to the city, the Bronx market continued to show signs of strength, in the 3rd quarter of 2022, with singlefamily home sales ahead 9.2% over the 3rd quarter of 2021. The median sales price of $630,000 was 6.8% ahead of last year. However, condo sales lagged from the previous 3rd quarter.
As we have stated in previous sales reports for 2022, there will continue to be challenges in comparing sales numbers to the pandemic year of 2020, when the market came to a grinding halt in the second quarter, and the post-pandemic market of 2021, when pent up demand drastically sped up typical buying cycles.
Given negative economic headlines and the ongoing debate of will there or won’t there be a recession,
it’s obvious that the market will not be immune to such significant headwinds. However, the 3rd quarter sales numbers do not necessarily support the doom and gloom forecasts that many prognosticators like to make, especially when making comparisons to the pre-pandemic market of 2019.
Also, the strong labor market seems to be playing a role in counterbalancing some of the adverse economic factors. As was the case at the end of the second quarter, the wild card in this analysis is a potential recession in 2023, and the length and depth of one should it occur. Until then, the numbers
support a conclusion of a resilient real estate market that ishampered by low inventory but still supported by strong buyer demanc.