WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. December 19, 2028:
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INDEPENDENT REDISTRICTING CHAIR KEN JENKINS RECAPS REDISTRICTING METHODS COMMENTS ON THE COURT OF APPEALS DECISION
WPCNR ALBANY ROUNDS. From New York State IRC CHAIR KEN JENKINS. December 16, 2023:
STATEMENT OF NEW YORK INDEPENDENT REDISTRICTING COMMISSION CHAIR JENKINS AND COMMISSIONERS COLLADO, CUEVAS-MOLINA, FLATEAU, AND FRAZIER ON COURT OF APPEALS DECISION
New York Independent Redistricting Commission (“IRC”) Chair Ken Jenkins, and Commissioners Yovan Collado, Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina, John Flateau, and Elaine Frazier, welcome the Court of Appeals’ decision holding that “the people of New York are entitled to the” IRC “process set out in the Constitution, for which they voted,” and are eager to re-commence the process to submit proposed congressional districts to the Legislature.
We heartily thank all members of the public who submitted comments and participated in the IRC process. In its December 12, 2023 ruling, the Court of Appeals stated that the IRC need not conduct any further solicitation of public commentary beyond what the IRC has done previously.
We are proud of the historic and robust public participation in the IRC process. The IRC engaged in nine public listening sessions between July and August 2021. After releasing its draft maps, the IRC then conducted the constitutionally required twelve public hearings in the cities of Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, and White Plains, as well as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk counties. The IRC also held three additional public listening sessions that sought input from the Southern Tier, the North Country, and the State as a whole.
In all, from July 2021 through January 2022, the IRC conducted not only the twelve constitutionally required public hearings, but also an additional twelve listening sessions throughout the State. During this time period, the IRC heard testimony from over 630 speakers, and received over 2,100 written submissions from New Yorkers concerned about their communities and how those communities would be represented.
Moreover, Chair Jenkins, and Commissioners Collado, Cuevas-Molina, Flateau, and Frazier, invited the public to submit any additional input on congressional districting while the Court of Appeals’ decision was pending.
Between October 2, 2023 and the issuance of the Court of Appeals’ decision on December 12, 2023, more than 2,700 written submissions were received.
We thank the members of the public for these additional comments.
As the process now turns to the IRC’s submission of proposed congressional districts to the Legislature, the [email protected] email address will no longer be actively monitored.
All submissions that were received on or before the Court of Appeals’ decision on December 12, 2023 have been made available to all Commissioners and staff. Thank you.
STATE OF AFFAIRS DEC 19: OBSERVED BY YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST UP! UP! UP!
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It’s mid-December! Which means shopping, cooking, Santa, school performances, trying to keep sane andddd respiratory illnesses.
Here is your state of affairs.
Influenza-like illnesses: Increasing
The climate of respiratory health in the United States (coined “influenza-like illnesses” by CDC) continues to increase.
This is not surprising, given the holidays and colder weather. What is surprising is that it’s stubbornly creeping up instead of growing exponentially, as it typically does once we pass the epidemic threshold. This should change soon—although I’ve been saying this for weeks.
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Source: CDC; Annotated by Katelyn Jetelina/YLE
There are certainly regional differences in respiratory health. Two Southern states have turned “purple,” but many others remain “green” for now. In other words, more people in the South are feeling crappy than in the North.
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(Source: CDC)
Our kiddos and older adults are feeling the brunt of severe illnesses.
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Hospitalization Rates for Viral Respiratory Illness, by Age (Source: CDC; Annotated by Katelyn Jetelina/YLE)
Here’s a deeper dive into each virus.
Covid-19: High with potential to increase
On a national level, Covid-19 transmission is “very high.” After the post-Thanksgiving springboard upwards, wastewater levels have plateaued. But don’t get too excited. We have consistently seen this pattern in previous years.
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National SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels (Source CDC/ Annotated by Katelyn Jetelina/YLE)
I expect transmission to continue increasing in the weeks to come. Two reasons:
- Holidays. Our social networks expand as we travel and visit with people we don’t normally see. This allows the viruses to find more places to spread.
- Subvariant JN.1 is coming onto the scene. Which one is JN.1 again? It’s the child of BA.2.86, which was discovered in summer. BA.2.86 was concerning because it came out of nowhere with 35 mutations on the spike protein. This is an insane amount of change at once; it’s as big of an evolutionary jump as Wuhan → Omicron. While BA.2.86 was a dud, it quickly mutated to gain one additional spike change (i.e., JN.1). This additional change greatly impacted the viruses’ properties— making it more immune evasive.
JN.1 has become the fastest-growing variant in the past two years. In the U.S., JN.1 is reaching dominance. But, in other countries where JN.1 is already dominant, like Europe, wastewater is uniformly and exponentially increasing, as shown below. This is even the case in Australia even though it is summer there.
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Covid-19 wastewater trends across parts of the world, annotated by KKJ/YLE
The big question is if and how hospitalizations will follow wastewater trends, especially in places like the U.S., where vaccination rates are low. The U.K. and Singapore, which have high vaccination rates, are seeing a steep increase in hospitalizations now that JN.1 has taken over. Last week, CDC warned about the potential impact of low vaccination rates in the U.S.
There is considerable scientific debate about whether JN.1 should be given a new name (next in line would be “Pi”) or if it should still be considered “Omicron.” The Greek naming system was born during the pandemic to help with global scientific communication. However, I’ll be honest: The naming criteria are very unclear. If 35 changes to the spike, lab data showing immune evasion, and associated epidemiological increases don’t qualify for a name change, I’m not sure what will.
RSV: High and… peaking?
RSV decided to surprise many epidemiologists and continue to increase nationally. Hospitalizations have increased 60% over the past four weeks. For our kiddos’ sake, I hope this peaks soon.
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RSV test positivity rate United States (Source: CDC)
Flu: Moderate and increasing
Hospitalizations among all age groups increased by 200% for influenza in the past four weeks but remain below Covid-19 and RSV hospitalizations. Flu hospitalizations also remain far below last season’s peak for now.
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Hospitalization rate for Covid-19 and Flu, U.S. (Source CDC/ Annotated by KKJ/YLE)
Bottom line
There is a lot of sickness going around, and it will only increase in weeks to come. To improve your odds of staying healthy for the holidays, this is the time to tighten up— wear a mask indoors, get that air moving, and certainly get vaccinated if you haven’t already. And please keep the holiday shopping online if you’re sick.
We can minimize sickness in order to maximize family time coming up.
Love, YLE
In case you missed it:
- It’s the holiday season! Here are simple steps to navigate viruses
- Novavax is here!
- Don’t be surprised if masks come back to hospitals and nursing homes.
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife. During the day, she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank and is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:
HOSPITALIZATIONS FOR COVID UP 14% IN NY. FLU UP IN NY. RSV ON RISE: THE NORTHEAST OUTBREAK OUTLOOK
Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe Now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin Respiratory diseasesInfluenza-like illnessInfluenza-like illness activity continues to rise in the Northeast, with 4.2% of visits to the doctor for fever and cough or sore throat, up from 3.8% the week prior. Flu season has been underway for quite a while now, and will likely peak either this month or next. Northeast Region: ILI Activity
Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms
 New Jersey and New York stand out as having high levels of activity at around 6%. Please use caution if you are in those states. Connecticut and Massachusetts have middling levels of activity at around 3%, though activity in CT is declining. The other states in the region have quite low levels of ILI activity, at around 2% or less. Northeast Region: Change in ILI Activity
Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms
 Covid-19Covid-19 activity is also increasing across the region, though this wave remains fairly modest compares to previous winters’. The number of new weekly hospitalizations is now at 8 per 100,000. Wastewater concentration is quite high though, second only to the Midwestern region—and concentration continues to rise. This tells me that further increases in Covid-19 activity are likely in the weeks ahead. Last winter’s high was 18, for context. Northeast Region: New COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Rate per 100,000 population
 At the state level, every state is seeing sizable increases. Connecticut is most heavily affected, followed by Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. Only Rhode Island has low levels of activity. Northeast Region: Change in New COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Weekly new hospitalizations per 100,000
RSVRSV is still holding roughly steady in the Northeast, at about 13% PCR test positivity. The picture in individual states is mixed. Several states are showing continued week-over-week increases, including New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut. However, test positivity is declining in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. Among the two states in the region reporting hospitalizations for RSV – New York and Connecticut, hospitalizations appear to be decreasing, though the data are preliminary. Northeast Region: RSV Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage
 Other Respiratory + Stomach BugsI’m monitoring several other respiratory viruses and stomach bugs.
Northeast Region: Norovirus Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage
 Food recallsThe following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items: New this week:
Previously reported:
In Other News
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