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SUNRISE SERANADE: 22 DEGREES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY IN WHITE PLAINS NY USA 7 A.M. EST
WESTCHESTER SURPASSES NYC NEW COVID CASES ON ONE DAY SATURDAY. COVID SPREAD RETAINS MOMENTUM, SPREAD RATE.
NASSAU SUFFOLK, ORANGE, ROCKLAND, DUTCHESS ULSTER, PUTNAM, SULLIVAN AND WESTCHESTER NEW COVID CASES COMBINED HAVE 2,906 FOR THE WEEK. NEW YORK CITY REPORTED 15,321 CASES IN 7 DAYS LAST WEEK (2,881 DAILY)
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. January 17, 2024:
Westchester Reported 1,984 new persons coming down with covid January 7-13, the second week of the month.
The Westchester new covid cases on Saturday were 38% more than reported by the five boroughs New York City new cases of 1,234 on one day Saturday according to New York State Department of Health.
For the week January 7 to 13, the Westchester 1,984 cases compared to 15,321 new covid cases in New York City
The number persons in Westchester County also reported one day in which covid cases confirmed by New York State positiveS based on persons coming in after they had had an antigen test (self administered), exceeded lab-verified PCR tests.
WPCNR has long suspected that antigen tests taken by individuals that show positive have been ignored until they start to feel sick then they go and get tested are confirmed positive.
Last Thursday, January 12 of the 380 new Westchester covid positives, only 163 tests were confirmed PCR tests and 217 were found positive among antigen test self-administered persons.
WPCNR has long suspected before antigen tests were available for the home that the reason positives were higher than NY Health Department numbers that persons were not getting tested, They were going to work or sending students to school, until they got sick then went in to be treated, and tested positive.
No one in official capacity in Health Departments or in county or town positions have pointed this possibility. I noticed this in August of 2023 when antigen test-positives were separarated out in the daily totals.
The growing number of antigen positive indicate Individuals that show positive have been ignored the positive until they start to feel sick then they go and get tested and are confirmed positive. This behavior, of persons ignoring positive antigen results until they got symptoms, may be contributing to the obviously growing suburban counties that are approximately have the New York City population are now infecting more than all five boroughs of the city.
The first week in December 2023, Westchester had 764 covid infections, of those infections 387 (51%) tested positive through an antigen test and were confirmed. Last week ending January 13, 6 weeks later, of 1,984 covid cases last week , 1,325 were confirned with PCR tests, and 717 (54%) were confirmed positive as a result of antigen tests.
What do I take from this? People relying on antigen tests as they they go about their lives in (“post-covid times,”) if they do not take an antigen test, or if they do, and it is positive,but they do not feel sick, but for one reason or another do not want to miss work, get treated, not socialize, they could be spreading the disease to more persons who do not have it because they are infected with the virus.
The fact that in six weeks Westchester infections of covid have gone from 764 infections that week of Dec 3-9 to– 1,984 5 weeks later as of January 13, indicates that though antigen test positives make up about 54% of all new covid infections, it cannot be overlooked as a factor that many are thinking they are not sick after they take an antigen test even if positive or worse do not self-test after socializaations, until you feel sick could be a source of the spread we are experiencing, combined of course with not having all your vaccines, or worse out socializing in schools, parties, large events.
The JN.1 variant is highly contagious if you have the variant in your respiratory system you can spread it inside of 1 hour to another person.
This could be why the middle to end of the week reported infections are soaring and have been doing so since the New Years weekend.
Monday through Friday the last two weeks: Daily New Cases Day by Day in Westchester
WEEK SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SAT TOTAL
3/31-JAN 6 202 265 426 378 303 272 196 2,036
JAN 7-13 154 397 321 275 289 380 168 1,984
In the Mid-Hudson Region, Westchester led all 7 counties with 1,984 infections of covid, followed by Orange with 99, Rockland, 50 and Dutchess 45. Ulster, Putnam and Sullivan had 20, 14,and 11 respectively.
Nassau and Suffolk continue to average 700 infections a week between both counties.
Westchester averaged 29.3 infections a day for 7 days per 100,000 per population, there are 10.04 sections of 100,000 in the county This 29 a day in new infections resulted in 294 infection a day in the county for 7 days which works out to 2,059 a week.
Multiply that by 4 times and the month of January could see 8,236 infections by the end of end of the month. In the last three weeks, the 2,191 infections the week of Dec 24-31 in Westchester County have spread the disease to 2 persons in 2 weeks ended Saturday slightly increasing the 1 spreading to 1 person that resulted in keeping the numbers of new infections slightly lower the last two weeks.
MEASLES: “OFF TO GREAT START IN 2024:” DR. KATELYN JETELINA ON TRENDS AND COLLECTIVE AMNESIA
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Measles, trends, and collective amnesia.
Are cases increasing? What will 2024 look like? What can we do about it?
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Yesterday I got a Google News alert: “Measles.” Yes, measles. In the 21st century. At the height of winter. (Measles typically spreads in spring.) What’s going on?
- Two active and unrelated measles outbreaks among unvaccinated people: Philadelphia and New Jersey
- A Delaware children’s hospital on alert after an unvaccinated patient exposed 30 others
- Two DC airports on alert for an unvaccinated, infected international traveler
- An explosion of measles cases in the U.K. in the past month (255 cases)
This sure seems like a lot. Is measles increasing?
A measles case here or there is not abnormal. We see them every year. Cases typically come from international travelers, but sometimes locally acquired outbreaks emerge among unvaccinated pockets.
Cases today are still far, far, far below rates in the 1950s and ’60s thanks to vaccines. However, when we zoom into the past 10 years, we see a slow but steady rise. This shouldn’t be a surprise, given the reduction in routine vaccination coverage and the increase in vaccine exemptions.
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As you may also notice above, measles has epidemic cycles. It flares up every four to five years—2008, 2011, and 2019. We can also see this pattern during the pre-vaccine era (see below).
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It is exactly 5 years since the last flare-up, which suggests this may be a bad year. Of course, the pandemic could throw off patterns, but we aren’t off to a great start.
What is (and is not) a way forward?
Measles is preventable. And, in the PA outbreak, one unvaccinated child went to daycare while infected, defying isolation.
People are disappointed and shocked that fellow parents wouldn’t vaccinate their children. People are angry that their loved ones may get exposed as a result, especially since babies under 12 months old cannot be vaccinated.
I share a lot of the frustration. But I remember what Dr. Sandro Galea said during the pandemic, “We cannot finger-wag our way to a healthier world.”
Is there collective amnesia? Let’s fix it. As generations age, the memory of mid-20th-century diseases like measles fade. This is a blessing and a curse.
Some don’t know why this disease is bad or if this vaccine is safe. This is understandable. The onus is on public health—we need to equip trusted messengers to start communicating, as measles is:
- The most contagious disease, with an infected person infecting an average of 12-18 others (assuming no immunity in the population). In some cases, a single person has infected hundreds of people.
- It’s not “just a fever or a rash.” While most people who get measles will recover, it can harm the body in every way possible. Measles can wipe out a huge fraction of immune memory to other diseases, causing an increase in all-cause deaths.
- The risks of infection far outweigh the risks of the vaccine, as shown beautifully by the New York Times below.
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(Source: New York Times)
Is this a consequence of individualism? Let’s engage. One of the biggest challenges is the rise of individualism, as it goes against public health’s DNA: a collective response for the good of the population. We desperately need to engage with people who find individualism increasingly important. Develop interventions with them.
Is this due to a recent and dramatic decline in trust? Let’s do something about it. Mistakes were made during the pandemic. Misinformation is supercharged by social media.
Bad actors, like the disinformation dozen, drive the majority of anti-vax content.
Politics are further dividing individual health. Many people talk about these challenges (it’s even the theme of Davos this week!),
but I’m getting increasingly frustrated with inaction.
Bottom line
Unfortunately, measles is off to a great start in 2024. We expect trends to increase.
We need to heed the underlying warning. A laissez-faire approach to public health, on both sides, will not work. Harrowing stories like Roald Dahl’s below will creep into the 21st century. We can do better.
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Love, YLE
NOTE: If you’re in Philadelphia, the Health Department has added several additional vaccination sites to ensure that children and adults who need the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine can get vaccinated at no cost. Check for locations here.
A big thanks to Edward Nirenberg for his help pulling a lot of the research integrated above.
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, M.P.H. Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations, including CDC. At night, she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below: