COVID-19 STATE OF AFFAIRS OCT 18, 2022

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NORTHEAST UP 11% IN INFECTIONS IN WEEK. NEW YORK STATE HOSPITALIZATIONS UP.

By Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist . Reprinted with permission. UPDATED with MID-HUDSON, NEW YORK CITY & LONG ISLAND COVID HOSPITALIZATION TOTALS LAST WEEK October 18, 2022 12:45 P.M. EDT

ARS-CoV-2 is having a mixed impact across the globe.

The WHO is tracking more than 100 subvariants of Omicron, and each country has a different makeup of “subvariant soup,” but two are winning the race: XBB and BQ.1.1.

Couple this with changing behaviors and different immune histories (which wave hit and when; booster uptake), and country-to-country comparisons are getting harder than ever.

But I’m up for a challenge. Here is a snapshot of the current landscape, which is changing quickly.

International trends

In Western Europe, behavior drove the current wave. Thankfully, cases have peaked as it looks like the virus ran out of social networks to follow, but Omicron subvariants (and specifically BQ.1.1) are brewing below the surface. Whether cases continue to descend, plateau, or begin to increase is directly dependent on the number of “susceptible” people the virus can find—the million dollar question.

All eyes are still on Germany, as hospitalizations “for COVID-19 are the highest they have ever been. (Take this with a grain of salt, though, as hospitalizations in Germany have historically been low. So admissions are high, but not outrageous compared to other countries.) The current surge is largely attributed to Oktoberfest as a superspreader event and the fact that Germany’s fall booster rate among 60+ year olds is one of the lowest in Europe thus far.

(Jean Fisch Twitter)

Also concerning is the quickly rising number of ICU patients in Germany and the fact that 30% of ICU patients are on a ventilator, which is high. In addition, some German hospitals have called for help as a majority of their staff are out sick. In all, excess deaths in Germany are high and increasing.

Moving to Southeast Asia, an Omicron subvariant—XBB—is causing a substantial infection wave (as opposed to behavior). Specifically, Singapore is getting hit hard with a high rate of reinfections due to waning immunity. However, only 15 people total are in the ICU (out of 6 million people). This amazing progress is attributed to:

  1. A highly vaccinated and boosted population, and
  2. A massive BA.2 wave (as opposed to a BA.1 wave, like in the U.S.). This may help as BA.2 is more closely related to XBB than BA.1.

The Singapore Ministry of Health predicts they will peak in mid-November at around 15,000 cases per day—an infection peak much larger than their BA.5 wave but smaller than their first Omicron wave. Their death rate is already far below Germany’s and the U.S.’s, regardless of high case rates. I expect it to remain there.

Then there are places like Japan, Australia, and South Korea that have similar growth rates of BQ.1.1 and XBB. These places will be particularly interesting to watch and see which subvariants win the battle. Or, for the first time in this pandemic, we may witness co-circulation—two subvariants of equal strength circulating at the same time.Time will tell.

United States

It’s incredibly difficult to predict what will happen in the U.S. given that we have such a different immune landscape than other countries. We only have 14.8 million Americans boosted with the fall vaccine—far below what’s needed to divert 100,000 deaths this winter. According to recent models, we are still on track for a fall/winter wave.

The CDC now updates COVID-19 data weekly, so we are getting bursts of information rather than a continuous story line.

From last Friday’s new CDC data update, Northeast has the highest proportion of BQ.1.1, which jumped from less than 1% to 11% of cases. Increasing subvariants are causing an uptick in wastewater. In fact, the Northeast is experiencing the highest concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater since last winter.

Wastewater trends during pandemic. Yellow=Northeast; Pink= South; Green= West; Purple=Midwest. Source: Biobot Analytics

New York, specifically, has the highest proportion of BQ.1.1—an estimated 25% of cases—in the country. Perhaps more concerning is that it is causing an uptick in hospitalizations. (Keep in mind that reported cases remain flat; these no longer accurately reflect transmission due to at home antigen testing.)

MID-HUDSON REGION HOSPITALIZATIONS October 14 (7 COUNTIES): 275 COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS, 17 IN ICU
NEW YORK CITY (5 BOROUGHS): 942 COVID-19 PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED, 107 IN ICU.

DAILY HOSPITALIZATION SUMMARY New York State (Source here)

LONG ISLAND REGION: AS OF OCT 14: 457 COVID PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED, 55 IN ICU

There is very preliminary data (n=1) showing BQ.1.1’s cellular mechanisms are getting close to Delta in regards to disease severity. We need more data, but not a great thing to see.

Bottom line

Cross-country comparisons are less straightforward than ever. However, subvariants are growing, and metrics around the globe are starting to reflect it. COVID-19 transmission is rising in the Northeast United States, which means it’s time to start riding the wave. If you were waiting to get your booster shot, now’s the time to schedule an appointment.

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WESTCHESTER HAS 10TH CONSECUTIVE WEEK OF OVER 1,000 NEW COVID CASES. 10,000 IN 10 WEEKS. 18 of 43 towns/cities account for 74% of County Infections.

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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. October 17, 2022:

On Sunday, Westchester was reported to have  173 new infections Saturday,  bringing the week infections October 9-15 to  1,253 or 179 new persons a day being lab-tested confirmed with covid. The total is 35 infections lower than last week  total of 1,284 positive, making this week the 10th week in a row Westchester has reported 1,000 new cases of covid.

Over the last two weeks, 18 of 43 towns  are responsible for 2,324 (44%) of  the 3,005 active cases of covid

 The is well ahead of last September October infections which produced a massive number infections in December and January.

It is hoped with the lower serious infections of the disease the county in experiencing that the infections, currently showing 1 person infected with covid is infectiong only 1 other person, that the disease will not continue at this spread rate but will lower, otherwise the present rate of infections 1,000 a week or more will continue.

The Friday Westchester County Covid Tracker showed   18 towns and villages in Westchester account for,2,213 Active cases  (74 %) of the 3,003 Westchester covid cases the last two weeks up through Friday, October 13.

Yonkers, Mt. Vernon, New Rochelle, Yorktown, White Plains, Greenburgh,Cortlandt, Mt. Pleasant-Pleasantville, Tarrytown-Sleepy Hollow,  Mamaroneck Town-Mamaroneck Village-Larchmont, Ossining Town-Village, Harrison, Peekskill, Port Chester are those 18 Towns. The 18 towns daily infections average 9 infections per day, a total of  2,324.  

The towns with infections over 100 are:

                             TOTAL ACTIVE       DAILY           TOTAL NEW OVER 2 WEEKS(DAILY RATE)

Yonkers 599               599                    34                               476

Mt. Vernon                 225                   21                                 294

New Rochelle             212                   16                                 224

Yorktown                   190                    13                                182

White Plains              166                    15                                 210

Greenburgh               155                    17                                238

Cortlandt                   119                      7                                 98

Mt.Pleasant-Pleasantville   113             10                                140

Tarrytown-SleepyHOL  110                     5                                70

TOWNS LESS than 100 ACTIVE CASES BUT CLOSE

Mamaroneck TowN-V-Larch    95          5                                70

Ossining Town-Village              93          3                                 42

Harrison                                    83          4                                56

Peekskill                                    83         6                                   84

Port Chester                             70            10                               140  

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REP MONDAIRE JONES (17TH DISTRICT) INTRODUCES BILL TO ALLOW ABORTIONS BY MEDICATIONS BILL

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REPS. JONES, DEGETTE LEAD CALL TO DEFEND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH CARE FROM GOP-LED ATTEMPTS TO BLOCK ACCESS TO MEDICATION ABORTION

Text of Resolution (PDF)

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Representatives Mondaire Jones (D-NY) and Diana DeGette (D-CO), along with 28 of their colleagues, introduced a resolution urging Congress to protect access to reproductive health care by reaffirming the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) authority to preempt state law and ensure access to reproductive health care products.

This resolution reaffirms the FDA’s preemptive authority over state laws that seek to regulate approved drugs and biologics, as established in the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and the Public Health Service Act. Anti-abortion states seeking to limit or prohibit access to medication abortion and other reproductive health products are breaking the law and must be stopped in their tracks by Congress and the FDA in order to protect vital reproductive health care services across the country.

“Congress must act immediately to prevent states from banning medication abortions,” said Rep. Jones. “Our most fundamental rights are under attack by this rogue Supreme Court majority, and we have a responsibility to do everything we can to protect these rights and defend every American’s access to life-saving medical care. I urge my colleagues to support this resolution and safeguard reproductive health services at the state level — before it is too late.”

“Every woman in this country, no matter where she lives or how much money she makes, should have the freedom to make her own health care decisions – including whether to use birth control or seek abortion care,” said Rep. DeGette. “We are not going to sit back and allow states to put their own radical agendas between patients and the care they need. By reaffirming FDA’s power to regulate health care products in this country, we are sending states a clear message that Congress will not tolerate any attempt to limit women’s access to reproductive care.”

Since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Republican-led state legislatures have launched attacks on reproductive freedom, attempting to criminalize the delivery of medication abortion by mail and imposing strict regulations to discourage doctors from prescribing this option. Medication abortion is a safe, effective, and widely used method to terminate a pregnancy that has been approved by the FDA for more than 20 years; this method is newly under threat by ultra-conservative, anti-abortion legislation at the state level in every corner of the United States.

The resolution is co-sponsored by Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), Alan Lowenthal (D-CA), André Carson (D-IN), Barbara Lee (D-CA), Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Cori Bush (D-MO), Dina Titus (D-NV), Dwight Evans (D-PA), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Frederica Wilson (D-FL), Jackie Speier (D-CA), Jake Auchincloss (D-MA), Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Chuy García (D-IL), John Larson (D-CT), Juan Vargas (D-CA), Marie Newman (D-IL), Mark Takano (D-CA), Nydia Velázquez (D-NY), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sara Jacobs (D-CA), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL), Steve Cohen (D-TN), Troy Carter (D-LA), and Zoe Lofgren (D-CA).

The resolution is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Federation of America, the National Women’s Law Center, NARAL Pro-Choice America, the Center for Reproductive Rights, Power to Decide, the EMAA Project, and Physicians for Reproductive Health. 

“We are in the midst of a public health crisis that is becoming more dire by the day,” said Katherine Gillespie, Acting Director of Federal Policy & Advocacy at the Center for Reproductive Rights. “Abortion services are now illegal in eight states, and the number of states enforcing radical bans and denying people life-saving care is growing rapidly. We appreciate Congress’ efforts to reaffirm FDA’s authority to preempt state laws restricting or banning medication abortion in an effort to help mitigate this crisis.”

“Decades of research and use show just how safe and effective medication abortion care is,” said Kirsten Moore, Director of the EMAA Project. “Banning the use of an FDA-approved medication is unprecedented and further cuts off access to care, especially for those who live in rural areas or who may be unable to get to a clinic in-person. This resolution affirms the FDA’s science-based decision making and makes it clear that playing politics with people’s health care is cruel.” 

“This resolution sends a clear and forceful reminder that medication abortion is safe and effective health care and that FDA’s authority takes precedence over restrictive state laws attempting to block access,” said Power to Decide CEO Dr. Raegan McDonald-Mosley, MD, MPH. “Power to Decide thanks Rep. Jones and all of the legislative champions for defending abortion access in this crucial moment.”

Full text of the resolution can be found here

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160 White Plains Residents GET COVID VACCINATIONS SATURDAY AT WHITE PLANS HIGH SCHOOL.

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NEW YORK COVID-19 TRACKER REPORTS 186 WESTCHEST RESIDENTS TESTED POSITIVE FRIDAY, 1,080 THROUGH 6 DAYS.

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Special to WPCNR. October 15, 2022:

Over 160 persons, aged 12 and over kept their appointments for coronavirus shots and the Bivalent Booster Saturday at White Plains High School, Sunshine Pharmacy told WPCNR Saturday afternoon.

The clinic was arranged by White Plains High School health officials with Sunshine Pharmacy, according to Mitesh Patel, one of the Co-owners of Sunshine Pharmacy speaking to WPCNR by phone . He said it was the second highest number of persons receiving covid inoculations Sunshine had experienced since last February when 175 were vaccinated.

Saturday, the New York Covid Tracker reported Westchester County found 186 new persons lab-confirmed tested with covid, bringing the 6-day total since last Sunday to 1,089 new cases. This afternoon the Tracker is scheduled to report Saturday covid-positives. The total is likely to be slightly less or  the same as last week’s total of 1,284 positive, making this week the 10th week in a row Westchester will have 1,000 new cases of covid. The is well ahead of last SeptemberOctober infections which produced a massive number infections in December and January.

It is hoped with the lower serious infections of the disease the county in experiencing that the infections, currently showing 1 person infected with covid is infectiong only 1 other person, that the disease will not continue at this spread rate but will lower, otherwise the present rate of infections 1,000 a week or more will continue.

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WHITE PLAINS WEEK-WESTCHESTER’S MUST-WATCH, MUST-KNOW NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW NOW. THE FRIDAYOCT 15 REPORT AT www.wpcommunitymedia.org

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THE RUINS OF THE ACROPOLIS? NO IT’S THE RUINS OF THE WHITE PLAINS MALL–HERE COMES HAMILTON GREEN — WHITE PLAINS MOVING ON UP
THE MOST DETAILED WEEKLY WATCH ON COVID AVAILABLE NOWHERE ELSE
COUNTY EXECUTIVE GEORGE LATIMER ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN THE CAPITAL BUDGET
AIRPURIFIERS TO 29 SCHOOL DISTRICTS?
WESTCHESTER AND THE 8 COUNTIES SURROUNDING NEW YORK CITY? A LITTLE HELP FOR MAYOR ADAMS AND NEW YORK CITY PLEASE! WHERE IS WESTCHESTER’S HEART?
THE FIFTEEN WESTCHESTER TOWNS AND VILLAGES WHERE COVID CONTINUES SPREADING THE MOST. WHY?
DON’T TAKE YOUR GUNS TO TOWN YET– GOV HOCHUL APPEALS STAY OF THE NY CONCEALED CARRY LAW
JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS THIS WEEK EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK FOR 21 YEARS AT THE LIMITS (Photo by Steve Morton)
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WESTCHESTER NEW COVID CASES SPREAD AT SAME PACE. EQUAL LAST WEEK’S TOTAL. 4,400 PROJECTED FOR OCTOBER.10 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF OVER 1,000 NEW COVID CASES A WEEK. SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2022 INFECTIONS EXCEED INFECTIONS OF SEPTEMBER 2021–BOTTOM LINE: SICKNESS WILL GO ON.

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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from the New York Covid-19 Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. October 15, 2022:

Covid-19 infections this week in first 5 days continue to show on pace to match the infections of the 4 weeks in September of over 1,000 new infections a week getting sicker faster (within two days) at the rate of 178 covid cases a day, Sunday through Thursday, October 24, totaling 894 infections with Friday figures out this afternoon Saturday.

Looking at covid infections the last three months, Westchester County new infections a month dropped. July infections of 10,298 dropped 40% to 6,325 in August and to 5,595 in September. Now they are infecting others at a rate that keeps the presence of the disease where it is about 1,000 new cases a week.

In the first two weeks of October new Westchester infections have been 2,377, 182 new persons coming down with covid a day. If Friday and Saturday infections equal that 178 a day, the week of Oct 6 through 15 will total 1,250 new cases, with 34 cases of last week when we had 1,284.

Since the July high of 10,298 new cases. Westchester has continued to infect at the rate of 1,000 new cases for 10 consecutive weeks.

The figures for new cases are going up in the beginning of each week and declining by Friday, meaning people socialize or go out on the weekends, or after a week of school children socialize and catch it, or family get togethers spread it. Since the new covid bivalient of covid is infecting faster, the midweek numbers are shifting to Monday-Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 6.395 persons infected August 1-31 ,spread the disease to 5,595.dividing 5,595 into the 6,395 infections in August we find the unfortunate persons infected with covid in August spread it to 1.14 persons, meaning the disease is not lasting as long.

If the 5,595 infected in September follow this infection spread 1 infectee giving the disease to one other person, we can expect 6,378 infections in October. I hope it will reach that high, even though people are seeing more people now and are not as wary of the disease and the schools are wide open with few covid protection precautions. And, we have have no idea of school infections the last month, since the state is not reporting them.

At roughly the 200 persons a day getting infected in the county through the next two weeks for 16 days we should see 3,200 new cases of covid, added to the 2,777 we already have October 1-13, We could see 5,997, that’s is considerably more than the 2,567 infections of October 2021, almost double.

Completion of vaccinations, and booster are your only protection against the carelessness of others and the unwillingless of officials to tell us the facts about the spread of the disease.

Though less serious in duration, it is spreading faster and well ahead of last fall infection pace which lead to the highest covid cases.

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SEE REPLAYS OF THE LWV 16TH AND 17TH CONGRESSIONAL FORUMS NOW.

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Candidate Forum Update:
NYS SD 37 Added 
Recording links for CD 16 & 17 Forums

NYS Bond Proposal Info

The General Election is Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Early voting will be October 29-November 6.  Check here for dates, hours, and locations. 

Get personalized voting information on your districts and candidates at Vote411.org.


Upcoming and Recent Candidate Forums

Missed the forums for U.S. Congressional Districts 16 & 17? Click links below to view.  Courtesy of LWV Westchester.

U.S. Congressional District 16
Jamaal Bowman vs. Miriam Flisser

U.S. Congressional District 17

Sean Maloney vs. Mike Lawler

Upcoming forums:

NYS Assembly District 88 Virtual Candidate Forum

October 25, 2022 / 7:00pm

Sponsored by the Leagues of New Rochelle, Scarsdale, and White Plains, and Disability Rights New York, who will be providing American Sign Language interpreters and closed captioning in several languages.

Candidates are Thomas H. Fix Jr. (R,C) and Amy Paulin (D)


Submit your questions by October 23, 2022 here

Register for the forum here 

NYS Senate District 37
Virtual Candidate Forum
October 26, 2022 / 5 p.m.


Sponsored by the Leagues of Larchmont/Mamaroneck, New Rochelle, Northeast Westchester, Rye, Rye Brook & Port Chester, Scarsdale, and White Plainsand Disability Rights New York, who will be providing American Sign Language interpreters and closed captioning in several languages.

Candidates are:  Shelley B. Mayer (D, WF) and Frank F. Murtha (R) 

Submit your questions by October 24  here
Register for the forum here

Questions about the Forums?  email president.lwvwp@gmail.com

NEW YORK STATE BALLOT PROPOSAL

PROP 1: NEW YORK’S CLEAN WATER, CLEAN AIR, AND GREEN JOBS BOND ACT

LWVNY, a member of the NYS Bond Act Coalition, issued this statement:

“During this election, New Yorkers will have the opportunity to vote on Proposal #1 – the Clean Water, Clean Air, and Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act of 2022. This ballot measure will provide funding to safeguard drinking water, update New York’s infrastructure, conserve wildlife habitats, and strengthen New York’s economy. The League urges you to flip your ballot over and vote YES on Proposal #1: the Environmental Bond Act!”Learn more here.
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GOVERNOR HOCHUL SIGNS LAW STOPPING STATE AGENCIES FROM CHARGING 22% LATE FEES ON UNPAID STUDENT DEBT

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GOVERNOR HOCHUL SIGNS LEGISLATION ENDING THE PRACTICE OF CHARGING ADDITIONAL FEE ON OUTSTANDING STUDENT DEBT     

Legislation (S.7862B/A.10261) Ends 22 Percent Fee on Outstanding Debt Owed to the State Resulting from Educational Expenses    

Ends Punitive Law That Prohibits Students from Clearing Debts    

Governor Kathy Hochul signed legislation (S.7862B/A.10261) ending the practice of charging an additional fee to debtors when collecting outstanding debts owed to the State resulting from educational expenses. Prior to this law, a fee of 22 percent was added by state law on top of the total debt due.     

“When students across New York spoke up about the difficulties of digging out of debt, my administration listened,” Governor Hochul said. “By signing this legislation, we are removing a barrier to higher education and ensuring that students can graduate without debilitating debt that has disproportionately hurt students least able to afford it. Every New Yorker deserves access to a quality education without fear of getting trapped in a cycle of debt.”    

Legislation (S.7862B/A.10261) adds a provision to the state finance law prohibiting state agencies from collecting a 22 percent fee when enforcing debt collection on educational debt. Various state agencies collect educational debts owed to the State, and when unable to collect through traditional means, these debts may be referred to the Office of the Attorney General’s Civil Recoveries Bureau. Prior to the signing of this legislation, state law provided that the Attorney General recover its costs in pursuing collection of this educational debt through an additional fee of up to 22 percent of the outstanding debt; That fee was then added on top of the total debt due, which substantially increased the amount owed by student debtors.    

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