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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from the New York Covid-19 Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. October 15, 2022:

Covid-19 infections this week in first 5 days continue to show on pace to match the infections of the 4 weeks in September of over 1,000 new infections a week getting sicker faster (within two days) at the rate of 178 covid cases a day, Sunday through Thursday, October 24, totaling 894 infections with Friday figures out this afternoon Saturday.

Looking at covid infections the last three months, Westchester County new infections a month dropped. July infections of 10,298 dropped 40% to 6,325 in August and to 5,595 in September. Now they are infecting others at a rate that keeps the presence of the disease where it is about 1,000 new cases a week.

In the first two weeks of October new Westchester infections have been 2,377, 182 new persons coming down with covid a day. If Friday and Saturday infections equal that 178 a day, the week of Oct 6 through 15 will total 1,250 new cases, with 34 cases of last week when we had 1,284.

Since the July high of 10,298 new cases. Westchester has continued to infect at the rate of 1,000 new cases for 10 consecutive weeks.

The figures for new cases are going up in the beginning of each week and declining by Friday, meaning people socialize or go out on the weekends, or after a week of school children socialize and catch it, or family get togethers spread it. Since the new covid bivalient of covid is infecting faster, the midweek numbers are shifting to Monday-Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 6.395 persons infected August 1-31 ,spread the disease to 5,595.dividing 5,595 into the 6,395 infections in August we find the unfortunate persons infected with covid in August spread it to 1.14 persons, meaning the disease is not lasting as long.

If the 5,595 infected in September follow this infection spread 1 infectee giving the disease to one other person, we can expect 6,378 infections in October. I hope it will reach that high, even though people are seeing more people now and are not as wary of the disease and the schools are wide open with few covid protection precautions. And, we have have no idea of school infections the last month, since the state is not reporting them.

At roughly the 200 persons a day getting infected in the county through the next two weeks for 16 days we should see 3,200 new cases of covid, added to the 2,777 we already have October 1-13, We could see 5,997, that’s is considerably more than the 2,567 infections of October 2021, almost double.

Completion of vaccinations, and booster are your only protection against the carelessness of others and the unwillingless of officials to tell us the facts about the spread of the disease.

Though less serious in duration, it is spreading faster and well ahead of last fall infection pace which lead to the highest covid cases.