NY NYC ECONOMIC REPORT–JOBS RETURN TO NYC 5 MONTHS INTO 2023: SHOWS, RESTAURANTS, CONSTRUCTION, TOURISM LAG

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Office of the New York State Comptroller News

May 12, 2023

DiNAPOLI: NYC HAS RECOVERED NEARLY ALL PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS EXCEPT RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, CONSTRUCTION TOURISM

New York City has recovered 99.4% of private sector jobs it lost in the pandemic, but unevenly across key industries, according to an analysis released by New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

“The city’s job recovery is good news,” DiNapoli said. “We are seeing strength in the securities, transportation and warehousing and office sectors, but retail, restaurants, construction and tourism continue to lag the national recovery. We need these sectors, which employ hundreds of thousands of workers, to also regain their full pre-pandemic strength to ensure the city’s economic recovery is more robust and inclusive of all New Yorkers.”

Comptroller DiNapoli monitors several industries vital to the city’s comeback and provides monthly updates on the New York City Industry Sector Dashboards, which he launched last year. Key findings across the arts, entertainment and recreation, construction, office, restaurants, retail, securities, tourism and transportation and warehousing sectors include:

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 85%

  • The arts, entertainment and recreation sector saw an uptick in employment in March of 2023.
  • The sector has recovered only about 85% of pre-pandemic jobs, lagging the national job recovery rate for the sector of 96.4%.
  • Broadway reopened in September 2021 and makes up one of the largest shares of arts jobs but has been slow to come back. Attendance exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time in January of 2023, but has since remained below pre-pandemic levels.

Restaurants 95.5%

  • As of March 2023, the restaurant sector has recovered 95.5% of pre-pandemic jobs, slightly below the rest of the state at 97.3%, and the nation, which has already fully recovered.
  • At the height of the pandemic, restaurants lost 73% of jobs compared to 22% in the rest of the private sector.

Retail  87%

  • Retailers have only regained 87.4% of jobs in New York City compared to the nation which fully recovered its retail jobs as of March 2023.
  • The retail sector saw a 33% drop in jobs between March and April 2020 due to pandemic and mandatory closures of non-essential retail businesses.
  • The city’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 financial plan does not expect the sector to recover its pandemic job losses before 2027.

Tourism  15% OFF PREPANDEMIC ECONOMY

  • The sector has yet to recovery nationally, and tourism employment in the city is still nearly 15% below the pre-pandemic level at the end of the third quarter in 2022.
  • Hotel occupancy was about 74% in 2022, far below pre-pandemic levels.

Construction  DOWN 8% OF ITS PREPANDEMIC PACE –RISING INTEREST RATES HURTING RIGHT NOW

  • As of March 2023, the construction sector has yet to regain 8% of its pre-pandemic jobs. Year-to-date activity in 2023 lags the same period last year, although construction activity was strong in 2022.
  • At the onset of the pandemic, the construction sector lost 46% of its jobs compared to only 22% for the private sector, as New York State paused nonessential construction.
  • Over the last year, the sector has been hit by the rising interest rate environment influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions to combat high levels of inflation.

Securities IN THE MONEY

  • The securities sector did not see a notable drop in employment at the onset of the pandemic, as employees were able to shift to remote work.
  • While the sector has experienced fluctuations in employment, job growth in the city continues to surpass that of the rest of the state. The sector is currently 6.4% larger than in 2019.
  • Sector profits reached $25.8 billion in 2022, 55.8% less than the prior year.

Transportation and Warehousing

  • The sector has recovered pandemic job losses despite being hard hit at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Employment growth was especially strong in warehousing and storage, and courier and messenger services, due to increased demand for e-commerce.
  • The Port of New York and New Jersey surpassed Los Angeles and Long Beach, California to become the biggest port by number of large shipping containers.

Office

  • The office sector, which includes the information, financial and real estate, and professional and business services industries regained pandemic job losses by January 2022.
  • As of March 2023, jobs in the sector were almost 4% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
  • Workers continue to return to the office, with the latest data showing an office occupancy rate of nearly 60% on peak days such as Tuesdays. However, concerns over commercial office space linger as vacancy rates remained at 22.2% in the first quarter of 2023.

These dashboards follow a series of reports DiNapoli’s office released over the past two years on the effect of the pandemic on these sectors.

Job levels April 23

Dashboards

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

Construction

Office

Restaurant

Retail

Securities

Tourism

Industry Sector Reports

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (issued in February 2021)

Construction (issued in June 2021)

Office (issued in October 2021)

Restaurants (issued in September 2020)

Retail (issued in December 2020)

Securities (issued in October 2021)

Tourism (issued in April 2021)

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HEY MOM!

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(This is for all you Moms out there. We know what you go through!)

 

“HEY MOM!”  

 

Hey Mom– Bring me two waters so I’m set?

Where’s my underarmor? And my visor?

Are my tights washed? My skates are dull.

Hey Mom, can you call the advisor?  

 

Hey Mom,  I wasn’t yelling at you.

I didn’t mean to! You were yelling at me!

You never let me do anything my friends do

Hey Mom, would you chill, lighten up, just do!  

 

Hey Mom, I don’t like the way this looks for the prom –

I don’t like the color, how could you think this was me?

I just can’t wear this, it’s this, it’s that it’s…Oh, Mom!?!   

 

Hey Mom, I’ve been studying all morning getting knowledge.

Can’t I go out, I’ll be back by ten?

But, I know the material, gone over it again and again.

Oh, Mom – I hate my life! I can hardly wait until college.  

 

Hey Mom – But I did call and let you know

Don’t you understand, I couldn’t call at that time.

No, you can’t not let me go – it’s a great band

Oh, Mom – I hate you! You never understand!  

 

Hey, Mom, please don’t embarrass me at the game

By screaming so loud, it’s just so tacky

But, hey mom, I like that you’re over there in the stand

Watching me play, you know that don’t you Mom, you understand?

 

Hey Mom, can you get me to the rink

At 5 – I know you have to take off from work early?

Thanks, Mom, I’m so sorry but the team has a special thing

I have to be there, thanks Mom – I love you—really.  

 

Hey, Mom, please when you pick me up at the dorm

Don’t come inside. Just wait outside, call me on the cell

I’ll be right down — it’s the norm.

Don’t ring the bell!  

 

Hey, Mom, I’ve read the classifieds

There are no jobs, I can’t make all those calls.

Well, OK, I guess  I can send that resume you made for me (sigh).

OK, I’m lost, where’s the post office, down Lexington to what?  

 

Hey Mom, well I’m bringing my friends by,

Don’t let Dad embarrass me with his jokes, OK?

I’ll just die if he’s silly again — you won’t let him do that?

You’ll talk to him about that?  

 

All right, Mom I’ll take that extra course.

But I’ve just been going to school for months it never ends!

Can’t I have a little vacation, I don’t know what’s worse

Can’t I spend a little time with my friends?  

 

You do like him, Mom?

Oh, I hoped you would.

Yes, I really do

I am so glad you do too!  

 

Hey Mom, can you take care of the kids this weekend?

We’re going to Vermont with a friend.

And Mom, the cats get kibble in morning and meat at night,

We love you mom, sorry for the short notice, talk to you tonight.

 

Hey Mom, I’m sorry I can’t see you Mother’s Day.

Are you all right, what will you be doing today?

Going to a play – great – you know we love you in every way?  

Though we may not show it you’re always with us

even when you’re away.

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Thanks, George, We Needed That. We need a permanent Westchester “House the Helpless” facility for victims of all misfortune.

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THE IMMIGRANT TRAIN. THE GREATEST NEWS PHOTOGRAPH I HAVE EVER SEEN. IT BREAKS YOUR HEART! IT SPEAKS TO YOU. IT FORCES YOU TO CONFRONT YOUR CONSCIENCE. YOUR FEAR. YOUR COURAGE. IT WAS TAKEN  BY INTREPID PHOTOGRAPHER ALEJANDRO CEGARRA OF THE NEW YORK TIMES.THANK YOU FOR TAKING IT MR. CEGARRA at great risk!

34 WAYS WESTCHESTER COUNTY CAN STEP UP, 

HELP THE UNWANTED, LIFT UP  PEOPLE TERRORIZED  BY THEIR COUNTRIES,

SAVE CHILDREN, PARENTS AND MAKE THEM AMERICANS FOR LIFE LIKE “US.”

JUST DECIDE TO DO IT! BECAUSE IT’S RIGHT!

NOW.

 

WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. May 13, 2023:

George Latimer wrote this in an opinion Friday shared by the county with WPCNR:

The people who are migrants are in dire need. Our city neighbor is trying to address that need. They, too, need help. Realistically, we have limited resources and can help to a limited degree. If we can manage some numbers, with proper services and controls in place, we, too, can help. We do not have the resources to take on overwhelming numbers — if other places, everywhere each do a modest share, we can make this influx manageable.

This is by far the strongest statement made by any leader in this state than I can remember.

Thank you, George Latimer. We needed that. This was tough for you to do.

Somemebody had to say it, and you did it!

Westchester needs permanent “Housing for the Helpless.”

Now, Westchester, it is up to you. Help. Take In. Lift Up, Save.

34 THINGS WESTCHESTER CAN DO NOW to

HOUSE THE HELPLESS

  1. Every school public and private elementary or middle school or high school has gymnasiums, CAFETERIAS, classrooms that not used at night and could increase capacity during the day.  The schools have students filled with humanity eager to help. Set up cots and enclosures to help the families. It is simply a matter of deciding we are going to do this.
  2. There are empty hotels long since closed by covid. The Rye Town Hilton. The Arrowood.  They SIT EMPTY. The county should rent them from the owners and house the immigrants there. They are empty. Better yet BUY THEM or lease wings of them for permanent ‘HOUSING FOR THE HELPLESS,” to benefit victims of fire, flood, storm damage–always there to help the helpless.
  3. Every functioning hotel with vacances in it shoud make those rooms available on a long term basis. (Mayor Adams of NYC is trying to do this. Let’s make this a permanent model.)
  4. Every apartment owner who has apartments not rented should make them available for occupancy by these immigrants in need. If present tenants do not like it, let them out of their leases.
  5. Every house of worship, cathedral should open their sanctuaries to house immigrants. Save them. What would Jesus do? 
  6. Every city hall should open up their unused floors and underused city property to house them.
  7. Professional sports arenas and stadiums should open their vast spaces to house them and feed them (plenty of concession stands). Where are the Yankees and the Mets on this issue. The Knicks and Rangers are done…MSG has plenty of space.
  8. The empty theaters in the county and of course can house them on dark nights.
  9. Warehouse owners…where are you?
  10. Home owners like me, who have empty rooms, can take families in. A clearing house could be set up. I raise my hand!
  11. The entertainment studios around Nassau, Westchester  should open empty sound stages for housing.
  12. The Westchester County Center vaccinated thousands now it is back for entertainment, it could house families on the floors under the main floor.
  13. Office buildings not fully rented up should convert those office spaces for immigrants.
  14. The County Airport that no longer has the general aviation rentals they used to have could convert that black top into housing.
  15. The County Office building could house immigrants overnight ( a reach but hey, it is a big building.
  16. The County Courthouse is not used at night. The court rooms could sleep persons the offices with their posh couches could be places to sleep.
  17. Beach facilities could be used to house immigrants to sleep them overnight.
  18. Camps in Westchester could house immigrants in the evenings after the campers go home and meals could be served there.
  19. Colleges campus could open their dorm facilities in evenings (colleges are closing now).
  20. DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS facilities that shelter trucks, could shelter immigrants.
  21. Every unrented, unleased commercial space in the county could be converted into temporary housing
  22. Hospitals now relieved of the crush of covid (except for White Plains Hospital) could use their private rooms unoccupied to house families and also examine them for health issues
  23. Playland could house folks in the Playland Ice Casino.
  24. Glen Island could house them in the restaurant facility
  25. Tents could be set up in the Westchester Parks.
  26. Country Clubs could make their facilities available, PROVIDE EMPLOYMENT
  27. Use the County Fund Balance to purchase foreclosed homes to house immigrants.
  28. Set up a Open Homes Bank Roster, Owners volunteering their homes to share with “Our New Americans.”
  29. Target illegal housing with rooms, and “eminent domain” these long-tolerated properties and seize them as a permanent “Westchester Housing Bank.”
  30. CLOTHING FOOD INDUSTRIES SHOULD DONATE CLOTHING TO THE BRAVE, THE INTREPID, THE OPPRESSED WHO ARE TURNING TO US, SAYING PLEASE HELP US. 
  31. WORK THE PHONES TODAY CALLING ALL ORGANIZATIONS, CIVIC ORGANIZATIONS, CLUBS, COMMUNITY GROUPS, DEVELOPERS AND ASK HOW CAN THEY HELP NOW 
  32. MEDIA ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD ORGANIZE GO FUND ME PAGES.
  33. BILLIONAIRES SHOULD DONATE A BILLION EACH.
  34. DECLARE A HUMANE EMERGENCY — RESCIND ZONING LAWS TO PUT HOUSING FOR THE HELPLESS PERMANENTLY IN THEIR COMMUNITIES BECAUSE IT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO. 

 

Every suggestion here will be ignored as being impossible. 

But none of them are.

You just have to want to do it.

Let’s do it!

All In!

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ALL IN: WESTCHESTER TO THE RESCUE: COUNTY EXECUTIVE STATES WESTCHESTER WILL HELP RESETTLE NYC IMMIGRANTS

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George Latimer. Westchester County Executive On the Record. WPCNR Media Library Photo by WPCNR

WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. MAY 12, 2023 Opinion  From the Westchester County Executive George Latimer.

The lack of a coherent federal strategy to deal with immigration into the United States forced the issue to the front doorstep of those states and towns that span our southern land border. This is not unprecedented in our national history: the ports of New York City, Boston and San Francisco faced the same influx of poor, oppressed people seeking a better life in America over an extended span of time more than 100 years ago.

Then, as now, a significant portion of the existing American population wanted nothing to do with the newcomers. The immigrants looked different. They spoke a different language. They may have worshiped a different religion. Those already here made no connection to their own family immigration stories and treated the newcomers as aliens, strangers and dangerous to their way of life.

“They are not us.”

“We owe them no entry.”

“If they are suffering poverty or persecution in their land, we cannot be expected to take them all in.”

That mantra has become once again the firm policy of one of our political parties, and no coherent strategy can be constructed with such opposition.

A rational strategy is essential

In the book of Matthew, given that sacred scripture is often quoted to support other political policies, the disciple who writes is clear: when you offer food and drink, shelter and compassion to the stranger, you have done so to the Almighty. Eternal reward or punishment is meted out depending on your response.

A rational direction of immigration can make America stronger, not weaker.

How Westchester will respond

I am the chief elected official of a suburban county of one million people directly north of New York City. As the city exceeds its capacity to handle the flood of people in need, they have turned to their neighbors for help. Political philosophy applies — and some neighboring counties want no part of the problem and fight any shared assistance vigorously.

My administration in Westchester County sees this in pragmatic terms. The people who are migrants are in dire need. Our city neighbor is trying to address that need. They, too, need help. Realistically, we have limited resources and can help to a limited degree. If we can manage some numbers, with proper services and controls in place, we, too, can help. We do not have the resources to take on overwhelming numbers — if other places, everywhere each do a modest share, we can make this influx manageable.

There are some of our residents and not just a few, who will bitterly oppose any such rational response, however well managed and limited that may be. And there are as well many other residents who support compassion and rational responses to this.

I don’t doubt we’ll see at the next Election Day how we are judged.

And I don’t doubt that when the political careers are over, and when our time on this planet is over, we will be judged again.

All of us. Every single one of us. Judged for how we treated our neighbor.

George Latimer is Westchester County Executive.

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ALBANY’S $5 BILLION DOLLAR BUNGLE TONIGHT AT 7 EDT ON www.wpcommunitymedia.org or FIOS CH 45 COUNTYWIDE, WHITE PLAINS OPTIMUM CH 76

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THE PRESIDENT COMES TO VALHALLA 

SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS ON THE 2023-24 $256.6 MILLION BUDGET

COVID DATA DISAPPEARING AS PANDEMIC EMERGENCY ENDS

BUDGET BLUES FROM ALBANY AND WE PAY THE PRICE. CSEA CONTRACT SIGNED

COUNTY EXEC CONFIRMS ALBANY TAKES AWAY $30 MILLION IN MEDICAID FUNDS. GEORGE LATIMER EXPLAINS THE ALBANY SURPRISE..BUT BUT BUT THAT’S THE TIP OF THE RED ICEBERG.

PROFESSOR STEPHEN ROLANDI, ALBANY BUDGET OBSERVER REVEALS SHOCKING STATE DEFICIT NEXT THREE YEARS: $5 BILLION  SHORT!

THE  GUNDEMIC: GUN DEATHS GROW AS PERMISSIVE GUN LAWS TAKE AFFECT

STEPINAC CELEBRATES 75TH ANNIVERSARY. BICYCLE SUNDAYS BACK 

WE’RE RIDIN ON THE RAILROAD AGAIN 200,000 A DAY ON METRO NORTH AND LIRR

\

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS

THIS WEEK EVERY WEEK 

ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK SINCE 2001 A.D.

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TONIGHT AT 8 ON WPTV’S “PEOPLE TO BE HEARD” THE WHITE PLAINS 2023-24 SCHOOL BUDGET VOTE COMING UP COUNTYWIDE FIOS CH 45 AND OPTIMUM WHITE PLAINS CH.76 & www.wpcommunitymedia.org

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JOHN BAILEY INTERVIEWS DR. JOSEPH RICCA SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS ON THE SCHOOL BUDGET VOTE MAY 16 — THE FUTURE OF THE BUDGET GOING FORWARD, THE TAX SAVINGS, SCHOOL AID, IMPACT ON YOU AND WHY YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR THE BUDGET.

ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT FOR BUSINESS, ANN VACCARO-TEICH ON THE NUMBERS

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BACK TO THE OFFICE AGAIN! WE’VE BEEN RIDING ON THE RAILROAD ALL THE LIVE LONG DAY MTA ANNOUNCES BEST RIDERSHIP SINCE MARCH 2020 DASHING DANS AND DINAHS ARE COMING BACK TO THE OFFICE.

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GOVERNOR HOCHUL ANNOUNCED MTA COMMUTER RAILROADS SET POST-PANDEMIC RIDERSHIP RECORDS ON SAME DAY

 LIRR and Metro-North Both Carried More Than 200,000 Riders on Tuesday, May 9 

LIRR Carried Over 200,000 Riders in a Single Day 27 Times Since Opening of Grand Central Madison (pictured above)

Metro-North Surpasses 200,000 Riders in a Single Day for First Time Since March 6, 2020 

Governor Kathy Hochul announced Wednesday, the Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North Railroad set post-pandemic ridership records on Tuesday, May 9. LIRR carried approximately 221,290 riders on Tuesday, marking the 27th time the railroad has eclipsed 200,000 riders in a single day since the opening of Grand Central Madison. Metro-North hit the 200,000-rider mark for the first time since March 6, 2020, carrying approximately 205,069 riders on Tuesday, smashing the previous record of 195,086 on April 19.

 

“We have continued to make historic investments in our commuter rail services and the MTA – the life-blood of New York City,” Governor Hochul said. “From opening Grand Central Madison to securing more than $1 billion in sustained funding for the MTA, I am committed to expanding service and bringing riders back to the nation’s largest transit system.”

 

The LIRR records follow a 41 percent service increase in February 2023 that accompanied the opening of Grand Central Madison. Prior to the full opening of Grand Central Madison on February 27, the LIRR had exceeded 200,000 riders in a single day only twice since the beginning of 2023. 

 

The Metro-North record follows a strong month of April, in which Metro-North set post-pandemic ridership records on consecutive days on April 18 and 19. The railroad also had a record-high level for Monday ridership, carrying 180,789 riders the day before yesterday, nearly 7,000 more than the previous best Monday on April 24. 

 

MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber said, “The ridership records keep coming, and they validate everything the MTA has been doing to make the commuter rails an attractive option—more frequent service, fare discounts, and with Grand Central Madison, an incredible new facility and a shorter commute.” 

 

Metro-North Railroad President and LIRR Interim President Catherine Rinaldi said, “While discretionary travel has been an important part of the railroads’ recovery, it’s clear that in-office work is returning, and we are thrilled to see both railroads shattering their previous weekday post-COVID ridership records. With the opening of Grand Central Madison, the expansion of CityTicket, and the recent introduction of the Combo Ticket, it is clear that the railroads are simply the best and most convenient way to move around the region.”   

 

The ridership records on both railroads come on the heels of their best month since 2020. Preliminary ridership statistics indicate that in April, both the LIRR and Metro-North carried a combined 9.46 million riders and posted their highest average weekday ridership since the pandemic began. 

 

On an average weekday in April, the LIRR carried 200,915 customers. Grand Central Madison has already passed major iconic facilities like Boston South Station and Chicago Union Station in the rankings of busiest commuter railroad facilities. On April 24, the LIRR reinstated full-time, year-round service at Mets-Willets Point station to encourage riders to take mass transit to Citi Field events and provide Queens residents with an alternative travel option.

 

Metro-North carried 180,174 riders on an average weekday in April. On April 18, Metro-North reached a pandemic-era ridership record with 194,549 customers. The record was broken a day later, on April 19, when Metro-North carried 195,086 riders. The consecutive ridership records culminated in the railroad reaching its three-day ridership high since the pandemic of 193,111. 

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President Biden Comes to Valhalla. Governor Hochul, Representatives Jamaal Bowman, Mike Lawler, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, join him. Biden says Republican stance on Debt Ceiling Must Changed to avoid crisis of confidence in USA “Devastating,” he says.

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President Biden speaking at Westchester Community College Wednesday morning.

Governor Kathy Hochul, flanked by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and U.S. Representative Jamaal Bowman

President Joe Biden in his 15-minute address to educators and local Westchester politcians took Republicans to task for putting the U.S.at risk of defaulting on its world debt for refusing to raise the debt ceiling unless the President agreed to spending cuts. He said Republican efforts to cut spending would hurt education and veterans. He assured Americans that inflation was coming down, pointing to 12.7 million jobs added was a sign of economic turnaround. He said no negotiations could start until the debt ceiling was raised.The President also took the occasion to advocate for junior college educations, and said how much he admired educators.

“It’s important for the American people to know what’s at stake. This isn’t just a theoretical debate going on in Washington. The decisions we make are going to have real impact on real people’s lives,” Biden said.

“They’re literally, not figuratively, holding the economy hostage,”

Governor Kathy Hochul in the text of her speech reinforced the President’s message:

“I am so delighted to be here once again with some extraordinary individuals, my partners in government. And you’ll be hearing from someone that we’re so proud is the President of the United States, and that is President Joe Biden  Our Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand has joined us. Congressman Jamaal Bowman has joined us as well.

 

We are also so fortunate to have the Majority Leader of the New York State Senate, Andrea Stewart-Cousins. I believe that we also have Congressman Mike Lawler in the house. County Executive George Latimer is here. The Mayor of White Plains, Tom Roach is here. Mayor of Mount Vernon, Shawyn Patterson-Howard is here. Brian Sullivan, teacher at Highlands Middle School  (White Plains) is here. (Editor’s Note: Mr. Sullivan addressed the gathering, introducing the President .) I want to thank Dr. Belinda Miles for hosting us here today. Thank you.

We also know that the Majority Leader of the United States Senate, Chuck Schumer is working right now – working right now with the future Speaker of the House Representatives, so that would be our very own, from Brooklyn as well, Hakeem Jeffries. 

They’re both working together, working with our President – working being the operative word here. You get elected, you work together to do the job. And having to encounter a lot of opposition – from guess who? Republicans don’t want us to work together. They don’t want us to do what we’re required to do, and that’s called paying your bills.

I’m sure a lot of you would like the chance to like, run up some debt, pay for things you need. You’ve got to pay for your house, you’ve got to pay for your electric bill, you’ve got to pay for the diapers, and tuition, all these other things.

And if you could walk away from paying your bills after just having a couple of fights, probably be interesting wouldn’t it? But we don’t do that. We’re responsible. We do what we’re supposed to do.

And so, you come to New York, New York is the beating heart of the U.S. economy. So, you mess around with the debt ceiling, you’re hurting New York. You’re hitting us hard. And not just the state in general, but let’s think about who. How about the students right here at SUNY Westchester who will have their financial assistance unavailable to them.

 

It’ll put us closer to a recession, cause unemployment to go up. It’ll be devastating. It also shakes the confidence of the rest of the world in the United States of America. And we don’t need that at this time. We need friends. We don’t want people to question our ability to govern.

 

And brinkmanship is their attempt, Republicans attempt, to just bring it right to the edge. Make everybody all anxious – affect the stock market because they don’t care. They don’t care. This is going to play out in their political games. And I’ve got a message for them, it doesn’t work.

 

In 2011, I was elected as a Democrat in the most Republican district in the State of New York. Clearly there were a lot more Republicans than Democrats in that district. How did I do that? I talked about issues that people cared about regardless of their party.

 

Because here’s the message to Republicans, when you think you have a great political strategy, I’m telling you now it’s going to backfire. There actually are Republican seniors who don’t want you to mess with Medicare and Social Security. There are Republican veterans who don’t want you to affect their benefits. There are Republican students who don’t want you to mess with their student loans. There are Republican businesspeople in particular who aren’t real excited about you playing around with this.

 

So the message is, you might think it’s a political strategy, I’m here to tell you it is going to backfire because the people in this nation and in this state, Democrats and Republicans, want you go and do the job you’re elected to do. And that’s exactly what President Biden wants to do.

 

Let’s get this done. What’s the big deal? This is what we’re supposed to do. And so, this is an attempt to focus attention, to say ‘You have to do what we want you to do.’ But it’s going to fail. It’s going to be a cataclysmic failure because the longer this plays out, the more uncertainty, the more volatility, the more anxiety – not just in the markets, not just around the world, but in people’s houses, at their kitchen table. Because they need to know that the confidence that their government is actually going to work together.

 

So that’s what we’re just saying. That’s what President Biden is saying. Come on. Let’s roll up our sleeves, we can get this done. It’s not complicated and there’s no reason to play these games at this time.

 

So here we go. My message is: Stop playing games with the American people. Stop playing games with the American economy. Stop playing games with our farmers. Stop playing games with our citizens. Stop playing games with our small businesses and just do your jobs. Thank you, President Biden for being our leader. Thank you very much.

 

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End of Public Health Emergency: A SHIFT IN DATA– WHAT TO EXPECT FROM YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST

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This week the Public Health Emergency (PHE) for COVID-19 is ending in the U.S. This means many things, but one major shift will be the data—the dashboards and updates we’ve grown accustomed to.

Why the change? 

The public health system in the U.S. is complicated. But, essentially it’s decentralized. In other words, the federal government (i.e., CDC or HHS) is not the “center” of the public health universe. Public health is local. What “local” means depends on the state—driven by state health departments (like in Vermont) or by counties within a State (like in Texas).

On one hand, this decentralized system is a good thing. Flexibility allows health departments to focus on problems relevant to their population in their specific context. The approach to a public health problem in Texas, for example, is different from in Vermont. This also means health departments have full autonomy to decide how data is collected, what data is collected, and what is communicated.

During a national emergency, this decentralized system became a massive problem, though. It was impossible to get a national picture of what the hell was going on in a timely, comprehensive, and consistent manner: who’s at risk, how is the virus changing, and how are vaccines working?  

Slowly the PHE stepped in: mandate health departments to feed data to the CDC. This meant that COVID-19 data (eventually) traveled from county → state→ CDC→ national dashboards.

Blue dots= county health departments; red dots= state health departments; blue arrows= data flow. Figure by Katelyn Jetelina/YLE

As you can imagine, there were a lot of places where this flow broke down:

  1. CDC had to literally create and sign data use agreements (i.e. contracts) with every county- or state-level entity for certain data.
  2. The majority of health departments didn’t have the resources, manpower, infrastructure, or technical knowledge to collect or report data due to complexity. Some counties were sending case reports via fax.
  3. There was a problem with data consistency within and between states. Is El Paso collecting, measuring, and reporting the same data as Massachusetts? In short, no. 
  4. Then there were politics. Even if health departments had the data, some states didn’t report it. 

Over time, most problems were smoothed out.

But it took an incredible amount of time, resources, coordination, and manpower to get where we are today.

The PHE ending means that data flow, from county → nation, is no longer required. But this doesn’t mean that everything is disappearing:

  1. Health departments may still update locally;
  2. Some health departments are still willing to report data to CDC, even if not required;
  3. The CDC has sentinel surveillance programs— a set of locations chosen for intensive surveillance. This will allow us to see trends but not counts.

What is changing?

No change: 

  1. Wastewater and genomic surveillance, which will allow us to track variants and transmission.
  2. Emergency room data, which is one of the best early indicators of state-level transmission.

Changing a little:

  1. Hospitalization data will remain through April 2024, but frequency of reporting will change. This will help us track severe disease.
  2. Death data will remain, but the data source is changing.

Changing a lot:

  1. Test positivity rates —one of our earliest metrics of transmission—will no longer be national, state, or county-wide. Negative tests no longer have to be reported. But, some pharmacies will still report.
  2. Cases will be dropped. This makes sense given at-home antigen tests.
  3. Vaccination coverage will be spotty. The frequency of updates will also change. 

What to do on an individual level? 

The CDC transmission levels data is going away. Starting today, the CDC recommends using hospitalization data to guide behavior. If numbers go up, put on a mask.

I don’t really agree with this for several reasons. I suggest following wastewater trends either locally or regionally. (If it’s going up, put on a mask.)

What to do on a national level? 

Moving forward, the key is to prepare so this data problem doesn’t happen again during an emergency or every winter. We do that by changing how we fund, plan, and coordinate our public health system.

The CDC is giving states money to modernize their data infrastructure (move away from faxes, for example). This may sound simple, but it is incredibly complex, technical, and expensive. Unfortunately, there are already a few bumps:

  1. Funding is going to the states, leaving some local health departments with no money to modernize.
  2. Little to no coordination. Even if states or local health departments are modernizing, they are doing so using their own priorities and with no guidance.

Bottom line

On Thursday there will be a shift in data. We won’t be flying blind but it’s not the best we can do. We need to figure out how to sustain our top notch work when we are not in an emergency.

Love, YLE


“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank and is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations, including the CDC. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below.

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