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MOON IN WAXING GIBBOUS PHASE IN CLOUDS NEARING MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT in WHITE PLAINS NIGHT STILL SHOWED VERY FAINT RED HAZE AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS NOT AS INTENSE AS EXPECTED. ODOR OF SMOKE WAS NOT DETECTABLE, BUT COULD MAKE YOU SNEEZE. i DID. The New York Times map YESTERDAY below indicates today’s expected Eastward movement of the smokey Canadian airmass (Dark Orange area in center of map).
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(White Plains, NY) – The Westchester County Health Department has been informed that the Air Quality Forecast for Wednesday, June 28 for Westchester County has decreased to:
Max AQI: 101 (Fine Particles)
Air Quality: Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
While the general public is not likely to be affected, vulnerable individuals such as young children, pregnant women, and those with respiratory conditions or heart disease, should limit their time outdoors. If the air quality continues to decrease it is recommended that residents close their windows, operate their air conditioners and reduce strenuous outdoor activities.
Stay tuned for further updates and adhere to the recommended precautions to minimize exposure to poor air quality.
The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation and the New York State Department of Health issue Air Quality Health Advisories when DEC meteorologists predict levels of pollution, either ozone or fine particulate matter, are expected to exceed an Air Quality Index (AQI) value of 100. To remain updated on the air quality index, monitor the DEC website for air quality index updates.
Exposure can cause short-term health effects, such as irritation to the eyes, nose and throat, coughing, sneezing, runny nose and shortness of breath. Additional information is available on DEC and on DOH websites.
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WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER. New York-June 28 Special to WPCNR From New York Congestion Tax Free. June 28, 2023:
(Editor’s Note: Yesterday Governor Kathy Hochul officially announced the Federal Highway Administration had approved congestion pricing tolls beginning at 60th Street in Manhattan. A target date for the Congestion Pricing to begin is May 2024.)
If New York moves forward with a congestion pricing tax in Manhattan south of 60th Street, expect a raft of new transportation taxes across the state within the next few years.
NYC Congestion Tax Free, a diverse coalition of civic and business leaders that opposes the controversial new tax on the grounds that:
A. it won’t reduce traffic — it will only move it into other communities;
B. it will unfairly burden low-income New Yorkers for traffic caused by wealthier citizens in ride-share vehicles;
C. it will increase truck traffic and youth asthma rates in inner-city neighborhoods already suffering some of the highest asthma rates in the country;
D. it will erect a paywall around the exact commercial tax-base areas of Manhattan that New York City and New York State are ostensibly trying to revive post-covid, potentially losing more net tax revenue than it raises.
Bottom-line, it will fail to achieve every claim made by its advocates but for imposing higher taxes and costs on too many New Yorkers.
“There are so many reasons to oppose this unfair and counterproductive tax, but the most alarming aspect of its implementation may be the precedent it would set for new transportation-related taxes across New York State,” said Keep NYC Congestion Tax Free spokesman Joshua Bienstock.
“Make no mistake about it, once this tax goes through, it will be open season on drivers across the state. New York is one of the most taxed states in America, and our state leaders never stop looking for new ways to take more money out of our pockets.”
If New York moves forward with the Congestion Pricing Tax, Keep NYC Congestion Tax Free predicts that:
“Government leaders don’t want this tax for environmental reasons; they want money, and this will be a whole new taxation avenue for them,” Mr. Bienstock continued.
“Many are opposing this tax as a standalone assault on city drivers, but opposition goes far deeper than that. Hand New York the right to tax moving vehicles, and just watch what happens. This nightmare is only beginning.”
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Last week Peter Hotez experienced pile-ons, stalking, and bullying after events unfolded on Twitter. So much so that law enforcement got involved. A complete nightmare.
He’s not alone. These nightmares are now a common occurrence for scientists and physicians in public health. Both online and offline. For vaccines. For gun violence. For reproductive health. And apparently for wildfires now, too.
It’s gotten out of control, which becomes an individual risk as well as a risk to the communities we serve.
Many scientists and physicians have similar stories. Harassed at coffee shops. Death threats, doxxing (private information had been shared), hacking, and getting sued. Hand-written letters in the mail. Emails pointing gun barrels at them. Heads added to fake pornographic pictures. Heckled after leaving work. Needing full-time security details. Moving states to escape threats.
I have experienced almost all of these in three short years. Others have too. We don’t just hear each others stories; we see it in the numbers, too. A recent study surveyed 350 scientists about social media commentary:
Another study in Nature asked scientists what types of harassment they experienced. Fifteen percent reported death threats.
While these surveys do have a potential for bias—those who experience harassment are more likely to fill out a survey—different data angles show a consistent story:
Watching gender differences unfold has been particularly jarring, particularly as a woman scientist. Women experience harassment differently:
Scientific communication, combatting misinformation, and bringing scientific dialogue to social media is dependent on volunteers. Because of this, too often scientists assume the consequences alone. This takes a significant personal toll.
After a while, this risk is just not worth it.
Scientists reach a tipping point—whether it be a health event, a threat becoming too real, or just exhaustion. When they stop interacting, the gap between science and community only grows wider allowing misinformation and disinformation to fill the void.
This takes a toll on communities.
The tipping point has already been reached for many. Axios, for example, reported that scientists are leaving Twitter in droves.
In another survey, scientists who reported higher frequencies of trolling or personal attacks were most likely to say that their experiences had greatly affected their willingness to speak about science in the future in media interviews.
Public health is inherently political.
And, it’s “public,” meaning it requires buy-in from the public. It needs to be a bi-directional conversation with the public.
Rapid, widely accessible scientific dialogue was a life saver during the pandemic: scientists talking to each other, to the community, to media. Scientists listening to the community. We need this in the future, especially if we don’t fix root causes of mis- and disinformation. A conversation can include disagreement, but this means civilized conversations rather than pile-ons and ridiculousness.
We need scientists to speak more than ever. We need communities to join the scientific conversation. At the same time, we need threats to be clearly and unanimously rejected.
Denounced by our communities, but also denounced by institutions through action. If not, more and more will wonder: is the juice worth the squeeze?
Love, YLE
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist. During the day she is a senior scientific consultant to a number of organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:
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COVID NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER RISE TO 194 JUNE 18-24.
COVID NEW POSITIVES BASED ON COUNTY POPULATION REACHES 839 NEW CASES IN 3 WEEKS OF JUNE
COULD REACH 871 THIS WEEK AS JUNE ENDS WITH POSSIBLE 1,710 NEW CASES
1,710 TOTAL CASES FOR MONTH OF JUNE (25% OF LAST JUNE)
WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the NY State Covid 19 Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 27, 2023:
The most significant covid number provided each week on the New York State covid tracker is new daily case per 100,000 population in Westchester County. You have to interpret it to know covid true spread.
For the 7 days June 18-24, the daily cases per day were 3.1 for covid in “covid confident” Westchester County.
However to get the total new covid cases you have to multiply that 3.1 by 10.04 segments of 100,000 population (Westchester has 1,004,000 population).
The choosing by the state to report a fraction of new daily cases gives a false sense of safety across the county that covid is in decline.
It is not.
In the first three weeks of June Westchester has reported 315, 174 and 156 new daily cases lab tested positives, which in my opinion vastly undercuts the gathering momentum the pandemic that is “over,” “behind us” and “no longer a threat.”
The math indicates covid is consolidating and growing in the county at a rate 871 cases a week.Rapidly approaching a thousand cases a week again.
In the 7 days ended last Saturday the daily average of new covid cases in Our Westchester was 3.1 per 100,000 population, at 10.4 times 3.1 this means instead of 3.1 new cases a day Westchester was actually experiencing 31 new cases a day countywide, a total of 217 new cases countywide last week.
Another week of 217 cases this week will mean if that 3.1 average continues will raise June covid cases to 1,702 . That total is 7.000 less than the 9,642 new cases last June when all daily cases were reported by the Tracker.
Covid is growing because of the apparent reluctance of persons testing positive with an antigen home test, not getting lab tests to verify. I call these victims of covid “Invisible Positives.”
Various motives for not testing to see if you really have covid can be attributed to thinking they do not need to test because covid is now curable with medications readily available; not wanting to have to report they are positive to work; fear they will lose their jobs.
I tell you if I tested positive with an antigen test and did not have symptoms I would want to know if I was a carrier of the plague in my breath to others.
What does this obvious unclear reporting of actual total new cases by the state mean?
July is a month of risk.
Two weeks ago in Westchester, the daily case rate was 2.2 per 100,000 this week just completed the daily case rate is 3.1.
More cases are happening each day (lab tested) now than two weeks ago. The growth rate of new cases creating new cases of 156 two weeks previous went up to 194 last week. The Spread rate has 1 new case spreading the disease to 1.24 persons.
Westchester new cases (lab verifed only) in a week spread it to 194 persons, 38 more or 25%. This week those 871 people will spread it to 148 more persons at that 7 day growth rate. Westchester has exceeded the containment threshold of 1 persons spreading it to just 1 person. Covid has shifted gears into its all-too-well-known spreading mode.
If we keep the number cases at the 3.1 daily 7 day average this means we will do over 217 next week with a 1 person spreading it to 1.25 persons we will have 270 infections with possibly a lot more than that given the flurry of mass-attended events July 1 to 8.
This is not the time to ignore getting your complete series of vaccinations and certainly very important to get your 6th shot the booster.
Mixing mingling with crowds and outings in July, resulted in over 10,298 new cases. Vaccinated populations halted that in August.
However, the “Invisible Positives” rate – the number of persons carriers of covid who are not identified, not testing to confirm they are positive are a threat to expand covid ability to infect. Perhaps, 1,085 people in the first week in July if you multiply the June infections this week by 1.25 ( 194 x 1.25 is 425) plus whatever the real number of the impossible to know number Invisible Positives is).
If the new cases last week spread a 1 to 4 persons that 194 goes up to spreading to 659 during the week of the first of July. Say it stays at that despite travel and recreation celebrations, beach exposure, pool exposure, concerts in towns.
The worrisome number of infections a week gives you 2,500 to 3,000 infections in July.
But unless more persons without complete series plus booster get them. The vaccinations will not save us from the infections in August.
Without vaccination diligence on the part of those not fully vaccinated, you can expect not a decline of covid in August but as yet an unpredictable increase.
Another factor that will contribute to more cases more often is covid is feasting on the weekends.
After the weekends in June, new cases have strengthened by midweek, meaning that weekend activities that persons attend are spreading awareness that “Hey I might have it (covid)” and they go to lab test and they are tested positive.
What does that tell me?
Last week June 18 to 24, On Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday we had 117 new covid cases (30, 52 and 35)
The week before June 11 to 17, Westchester experienced 36,23, 21 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday for a total of 80. Infections of covid in the midweek then doubled last week to 117..
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J36OxVXZQvg
Note: Mr. Latimer discusses the Westchester Migrants currently housed in Yonkers, Ardsley and White Plains 10 MINUTES and 20 SECONDS into this update.
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WPCNR Drops Weather as Unreliable.
WPCNR WEATHER OR NOT. News & Comment by John F. Bailey. June 26, 2023:
Has anyone noticed that weather forecasts for the Northeast have been notoriously wrong consistently lately for months?
Weather weeks supposed to be all rainy have not turned out that way.
7 Day forecasts are total guesswork.
24 hour forecasts fail to take into account the meandering forces driving cold and warm fronts expected and the alarming intensity of the jet stream to alter direction of the fronts.
Zeroing in on weather can only be loosely forecast by taking a look at the radar West Coast to East Coast snapshots that may have direction and intensity dissipated turning heavy rains into maybe rains and no precipitation at all.
It’s dartboard weather.
This unpredictability affects airline schedules. Recently on a flight to Memphis predicted to be smooth once the aircraft approach Memphis airspace. But servere thunderstorm cells developed within an hour of Memphis. The attempted first landing had to be aborted with a harrowing sharp acceleration and Steve Canyon sharp turn and climb to the left due to a strong crosswind.
Yet we religiously listen to traffic and weather together on the 8’s or on the 1’s on AM radio, or sit through 3 or four weather segments on TV.
WPCNR after another dismally incorrect weekend forecast by the National Weather Service as well as local weather meteorologists, I have decided to drop daily weather forecasts at the start of each day.
My doing so was to provide a cue to the following day but after this weekend’s weather inaccuracies, I have decided weather is just too capricious to predict with timings and advisories.
There are three reasons for my cancelling the weather.
Bear these possibilities in mind:
Humid and in the 80s chance of thunderstorms late in the day or not at all. In the 80s low humidity, The beach or the cookout is possible to squeeze in. And if you have tickets to a Yankee or Met game, always go to the ballpark because they rarely cancel a game.
Weather has become “Infotainment,” like the newscasts themselves. Weather gives you “real feel,” “gusty winds”, “dangerous weather” “Heat indexes” “Drink water” it is sensationalized. Back in the age of The Original Weather Channel the dire forecasts were easier to take, but now it is a lot more sensational, Even fair hot weather is treated as a threat
I am contemplating a different way to handle the weather, but for now I am not going to add to the worry and anxiety of the news that matters.
I hope this is not a disappointment to you.
To eliminate your wondering about the weather I suggest walking out at dawn and seeing the sun, and clouds if any and judging the temperature. If it is 70 at dawn you will hit the 80s on a typical clear summer day. Mix of sun and clouds…those clouds could bring thunderstorms.
Winds from the south could bring humid air in later in the day. Winds from the West and North North West are clearing winds. Winds from the East bring possibility of rain.
Overcast and humid, be aware of thunderstorm possibility towards late in the day. Since you have to leave for the beach early to even get there in a reasonable time. You go, enjoy the early part of the day before the sun index burns you…then leave to beat the rush hour.
I f you boat you need to listen to the Marine Forecast for the “chop” a foot or more on Long Island Sound is not good for small boats at all. 2 Feet chop, cabin cruisers have a rough ride. Sailboat enthusiasts, be wary with winds over 10 knots. But you are more of a judge of that than I.
Swimmers need to be wary of water temperatures. The Long Island Sound and the south shore of Long Island are unusually cold in temperature this June and the beaches have hotlines I believe.
Nature has natural warnings. First time you hear thunder, see shelter or suspend the barbecue.
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Keeping Nuclear Waste out of the Hudson River
Protecting the Hudson River has been one of the top issues about which my office has received constituent calls and emails this year. I am very glad that our Westchester delegation, under the sponsorship of Assemblywoman Dana Levenberg and Senator Pete Harckham, were able to push for the passage of legislation to restrict the discharge of radiological substances into the river (A.7208/S.6893).
Indian Point Decommissioning Public Forum
A public forum on the decommissioning of Indian Point is scheduled for 6 PM on Tuesday, July 11. This forum will include a panel of technical experts from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and relevant State agencies. Learn more about how to submit questions and attend here on the NYS Dept. of Public Service website.
Please note that the deadline for submitting questions is 12 PM on Tuesday, June 27. Questions submitted after this date and time may not be considered during the public forum. Members of the public who do not plan to ask a question during the public forum may continue to register until 12 PM on Monday, July 10.
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With graduation season upon us, NewYork-Presbyterian Hudson Valley Hospital’s Auxiliary has awarded seven local high school seniors with a $1,500 scholarship to honor their academic accomplishments. These students, all planning to pursue a career in the health space, were presented with their awards at The Scholarship Ceremony on Thursday, June 22, 2023, at 2pm in the Pataki Conference Center on the Hudson Valley Campus.
The Hospital Auxiliary has been an ambassador in the Hudson Valley community for over 80 years. Congratulations to the hard-working recipients as they embark on their next academic journey!
The recipients (L to R) Nicole Inga, Yulisa Martinez, Litzi Rodriguez, Leysha Esteves, Fiorella Pirela Jimenez, Nicole Caguano, and Lamyaa Hamid
