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What will this fall/winter look like?

bY DR. KATELYN JETELINA (Reprinted with permission)

AUG 24, 2023

The fall/winter season always means more respiratory sickness—the weather changes, people head inside, and social networks change (school starts, holiday celebrations occur). But the last four years have resulted in very unusual patterns.

This makes predicting this season a fool’s game. But I’ll take the bait and give it a shot.

What makes predicting challenging?

Three main factors:

1. Many scientists agree that SARS-CoV-2 still hasn’t settled into a predictable, seasonal pattern. BA.2.86 is an excellent example.
2. Changing human behavior: The changing immune landscape, new and improved tools, and pandemic fatigue have meant that human behavior has changed drastically from season to season, as I outlined in a rough table below. Human behavior plays into viral patterns.

   

3. Perplexing viral behavior: Other viruses’ timing seems to be off. One hypothesis is viral-to-viral interaction—one virus takes over, then subsides, and another virus wave begins due to population-level immunity to the first virus. For example, last year, we were concerned about a triple-demic—all three viruses peaking simultaneously and flooding our hospital systems. Interestingly, they didn’t, which helped immensely. (Viral-to-viral interaction? Maybe—we’ll see what happens this year.)

   

But I think this season will be the first time we have a repeat in behavior (except for the RSV vaccine availability) and all three viruses present.

So, my guess: this year’s patterns will broadly mirror last year’s.

So what happened last year?

RSV arrived earlier than usual (peaking in early November) and with a vengeance, particularly among children under 5. Our pediatric hospitals were overwhelmed, to say the least.

Flu also came earlier than usual, peaking around mid-November. (Pre-pandemic it peaked in mid-January.) But last year’s wave was about the same height as pre-pandemic.

COVID-19 had a middle-of-the-road year. In other words, hospitalizations weren’t as bad as before but still had a sizeable impact.

Of course, BA.2.86 on the scene complicates fall/winter predictions. The COVID-19 Modeling Hub—8 academic teams across the U.S.—made projections before BA.2.86 was identified but took this kind of scenario into account:

• If BA.2.86 explodes, we likely see closer to scenario F
• If BA.2.86 fizzles, we likely see scenario E

This means we should expect to lose 55,000 (optimistic model) to 450,000 Americans (pessimistic model) over the next two years.

What happened in the Southern Hemisphere?

The Northern Hemisphere has an advantage in predicting upcoming seasons—Southern Hemisphere data. Their respiratory season occurs before ours, so we can look to their winter season to predict ours.

This year’s Southern Hemisphere respiratory season looked a whole lot like last year’s:

• In South America, RSV made huge waves, just as high as last year.

  

• Flu hospitalizations in Australia were as early and about as high as 2022.

• Excess deaths in Australia continue to tick up from pre-pandemic levels.

Bottom line

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Northern Hemisphere saw a repeat of last year: an early RSV wave, followed by an early flu wave, and COVID-19 finishing us off. But of course, predicting patterns only 4 years into a novel virus is a fool’s game.

Regardless, we know viruses are coming. Their wave height depends heavily on how we utilize our tools, like vaccines, ventilation, medications, and masks. Let’s consider using them.

Love, YLE

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“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

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This week in outbreaks: Aug 25 edition

Quick update on Covid-19 and RSV

bY DE. CAITLIN RIVERS (Reprinted with permission)

AUG 25, 2023

It finally got me! This week I’m recovering from Covid-19, after successfully avoiding it for years. Thankfully, my case was fairly mild and I’ve completed isolation, but some extra rest is still in order, so this week’s newsletter will be abbreviated.

Covid-19 activity continues to rise in the West and Northeastern regions according to data from Biobot, marking nine weeks of continuous increase. However, wastewater concentration in the Midwest appears to have peaked, and the South shows slight improvement. Hospitalization metrics are also still increasing across all regions of the country, though they remain below previous peaks.

I’m also closely following news of the concerning new variant, BA.2.86. I agree with my colleagues that this variant is one to watch because it has a large number of mutations and was detected simultaneously in multiple countries globally. Both of these suggest it could be capable of causing trouble. But for now, it constitutes a minority of circulating variants, so we have a few weeks before we’ll know more.

Also of concern, RSV activity is still increasing in Florida and Georgia, according to data from CDC. Other Southern states may also be beginning to pick up as well, but trends are not as clear. On a positive note, an RSV shot for infants is now available, and can help protect them from severe illness. Older adults have a new option as well. For more information, see the post I wrote with

Katelyn Jetelina

recently.

A guide to Fall vaccine options

CAITLIN RIVERS AND KATELYN JETELINA

·

AUG 17

Read full story

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

• Frozen corn and mixed vegetables from Food Lion and Kroger (more info)
• Dehumidifiers, dozens of models sold by major retailers, including Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. The recalled units were manufactured between 2011 and 2014 (more info — check this list carefully, it’s extensive)
• If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

Stay safe out there. I’ll be back in your inbox next week with more news you can use.

Force of Infection is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribed

 

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GOVERNOR HOCHUL CALLS ON PRESIDENT BIDEN TO DIRECT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE WORK AUTHORIZATIONS, SUPPORT, AND SHELTER FOR MORE THAN 100,000 ASYLUM SEEKERS IN NEW YORK STATE 

Governor Kathy Hochul today called on President Biden to take executive action and direct additional federal resources to the State of New York as it manages the unprecedented influx of asylum seekers arriving in New York.

In a formal request sent to the White House this morning, Governor Hochul outlined specific, outstanding requests, including expedited work authorizations for asylum seekers, financial assistance for New York City and New York State, the use of federal land and facilities for temporary shelter sites, and Title 32 designation to provide federal funding for the nearly 2,000 New York National Guard members currently providing logistical and operational support across the State.   

“For over a year, I have called for federal assistance and support for New York as we manage the unprecedented number of asylum seekers arriving in our state,” Governor Hochul said. “New York cannot continue to do this on its own. It is past time for President Biden to take action and provide New York with the aid needed to continue managing this ongoing crisis.” 

Governor Hochul also announced a program that will greatly expand the State’s ability to help asylum seekers quickly gain lawful employment. Governor Hochul directed the New York State Department of Labor (DOL) to help connect asylum seekers to employment opportunities so they can begin working immediately after obtaining federal work authorization.

All asylum seekers with work authorization in New York can now register for assistance here. DOL career experts will work with individuals to assess skills, work history, education, career interests and more, and connect them with employers across the State. Additionally, the New York State Department of Labor launched a portal enabling businesses to inform the State that they would welcome newly-authorized individuals into their workforce.  

Today’s actions are Governor Hochul’s latest efforts to address the arrival of asylum seekers and migrants in New York. Earlier this week, Governor Hochul announced a $20 million investment to help expedite the casework filing process for more than 30,000 asylum seekers. This investment builds on the $1.5 billion the State already committed to support New York City by providing funding for health care, shelter costs, National Guard personnel, legal services, and voluntary relocation programs. The State has also loaned New York City sites to use as temporary shelters which currently house more than 2,000 asylum seekers every day.  

 The full text of Governor Hochul’s letter to the President is available below: 

Dear President Biden:

New York State has been working with the City of New York to manage the arrival of a significant number of migrants and individuals seeking asylum in New York over the past year.  This influx has stretched the City’s and State’s resources, created tremendous operational and management challenges, and imposed overwhelming demands on the City’s homeless shelters.  I wrote to you earlier this year to ask for the use of certain federal properties to provide temporary shelter.  While I appreciate you taking initial steps to assist the State in this regard and your longstanding commitment to an equitable approach to immigration at the Southwest border, the challenges we face demand a much more vigorous federal response.  With the arrival of over 100,000 asylum seekers and migrants in the past year, coupled with the sustained arrival of hundreds if not thousands to the City every week, the federal government must partner with the City and State in handling this humanitarian crisis.  The City and the State have provided significant funding, staffing, and case management for these arrivals to date.  I write to you today to express a most urgent need for the federal government to take executive action and direct significant financial assistance to address this challenge.

There are several key steps that the federal government must take to meet its responsibilities to New York.

First, the federal government must expedite work authorizations.  New York has a very strong job market, and the State is committed to providing job placement services to those who have work authorization and to resettling individuals and families who have applied for asylum.  Today, many asylum seekers and migrants need both shelter and financial assistance for an indefinite period simply because they cannot legally work in the United States.  Work authorization would enable these individuals to resettle in communities more quickly.  The federal government can expedite work authorizations through executive actions like granting and extending Temporary Protected Status, specifically for countries like Venezuela, which constitute a significant portion of the arriving population and where the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate.  I also support the use of the humanitarian parole program for individuals from other countries.  We cannot make progress in mitigating the humanitarian crisis we face in New York without these essential actions by the federal government.

Second, the federal government must provide the State and the City with significant financial assistance.  The State has already committed over $1.5 billion, and based on the current trajectory and planning, this crisis could cost the State an additional $4.5 billion next year.  According to New York City Mayor Eric Adams, the City projects that the cost to the City will be $12 billion to support the arriving asylum seekers and migrants.  The City and the State are incurring these unexpected expenditures in the midst of declining tax revenues while costs are rising.  This is a financial burden the City and State are shouldering on behalf of the federal government.  While the State appreciates the $145 million contribution that the federal government has made to this effort, this allotment of funds is insufficient.  The costs to provide services and assistance to migrants arriving in New York are high and the need for federal assistance is clear.

• Healthcare and Human Services: The State needs funding from the federal government to pay to test the migrants for illnesses that might pose a threat to public health and to provide Covid-19 vaccine and other immunizations; to offset state program costs through an increase in federal cost sharing under the Medicaid program (FMAP); and to support comprehensive case management services.
• Transportation: The Federal Transit Administration has an Emergency Relief program, and we call on the federal government to direct funds from this program to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) for free transportation services provided to migrants and asylum seekers.  To date, the MTA has spent over $2.3 million for these services and the costs will continue to rise.  The MTA has had to raise fares for New York commuters to close its budget gap and the MTA cannot provide free transport services for migrants on an ongoing basis without federal financial assistance. 
• Housing Assistance: The Department of Housing and Urban Development has housing subsidy programs, including Section 8 housing vouchers, that should be provided to eligible homeless families and individuals to help them move into permanent housing, to relieve the pressure on the City’s shelters, and to decrease the City’s significant costs to shelter elsewhere.
• Education: The Department of Education must work with the City and the State to surge resources to school districts seeing the dramatic increases in their student population as a direct result of this crisis. Many of the arriving migrants are families with children who are enrolling in public school and need English as a Second Language and other support services.

Third, the federal government has key facilities in the City and metropolitan area that the State and the City urgently need for temporary shelters.  The New York City shelter system is caring for over 58,500 asylum seekers and migrants, and the number continues to grow by the thousands each week.  The City has opened more than 200 shelters in response to this crisis and is out of space.  Additionally, the State has provided multiple state-owned facilities including the former Lincoln Correctional Facility, Building 197 at John F. Kennedy Airport, and space on the Creedmoor Psychiatric Hospital campus.  The City and State are quickly running out of viable locations to house asylum seekers and migrants.  Additional federal assistance to identify, prepare, and operate new sites on federally owned assets is essential.  I am grateful for the efforts of your Administration to make Floyd Bennett Field available.  However, there are other properties the federal government owns that should also be made available for this purpose.

Fourth, the federal government should reimburse the State for the costs of deploying the National Guard.  The State is incurring costs of over $22 million per month to support approximately 1,950 National Guard members, who are deployed in the City and to counties to assist with humanitarian operations.  This is an expense most appropriately borne by the federal government.   Title 32 of the United States Code provides those who perform active duty under state control with pay and benefits by the federal government.  I understand that the federal government has authorized the use of the Title 32 authority in the past to reimburse states for costs associated with the deployment of the National Guard to assist with immigrants arriving in the United States.  I am calling on the federal government to provide that same level of assistance to New York, either through a Title 32 authorization or through another funding mechanism.

In summary, New York City and New York State are deploying all available resources and staff to manage this immigration crisis.  New York is a state with tremendous talent, capability, compassion, and potential.  No challenge is too great, and we are stepping up to handle this mission.  However, the flow of asylum seekers and migrants into New York is continuing at a high and unabated level.  It is the federal government’s direct responsibility to manage and control of the nation’s borders.  Without any capacity or responsibility to address the cause of the migrant influx, New Yorkers cannot then shoulder these costs.  I cannot ask New Yorkers to pay for what is fundamentally a federal responsibility and I urge the federal government to take prompt and significant action today to meet its obligation to New York State.

Thank you for your continued leadership for our nation on this issue and so many others.

Governor Hochul’s letter to President Biden can be viewed here.  

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 JazzFest White Plains returns brighter than ever with more than 15 live performances taking place across five days, September 6-10, 2023. Jazz lovers will enjoy music by emerging talent and world-class artists, including four Grammy Award winners this fall in White Plains.

This year’s festival is presented by Montefiore Einstein and produced by ArtsWestchester, the City of White Plains and the White Plains BID.  Free and affordable performances will occur on downtown streets and in intimate venues that include ArtsWestchester, Grace Episcopal Church and the White Plains Public Library.

“JazzFest features some of the most talented musicians you will ever hear, but it’s also so much more. It’s a celebration of cultures, communities and the artists who make the magic come to life,” says ArtsWestchester CEO Janet T. Langsam.”

Mayor Tom Roach explains, “The City of White Plains is excited to welcome back JazzFest to downtown White Plains.  This event continues to delight and entertain jazz enthusiasts and budding jazz appreciators from around the region.”

JazzFest White Plains Schedule of Music Events:

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 6

12-2:00pm | FREE

Aaron Seeber Quartet

White Plains Farmers Market, 59 Court St.

Aaron Seeber is making his name as an emerging jazz drummer in New York City. Seeber, a graduate of SUNY Purchase, studied jazz drums under the tutelage of renowned instructors Kenny Washington and John Riley. 

12-1pm | FREE

Helen Sung presents PUSH

Downtown Music at Grace, 33 Church St.

Acclaimed jazz pianist/composer Helen Sung presents PUSH, a solo piano program that celebrate the music and artistry of landmark women in jazz.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 7

6:30pm | Louis Hayes Quartet including dinner served by Via Garibaldi

(David Hazeltine on Keyboard, Dezron Douglas on Bass, Abraham Burton on Sax)

Under the Stars at White Plains Plaza, One North Broadway, White Plains
(Performance & Dinner Price: $65pp)

Join us for a one-of-a-kind dinner performance with 2023 NEA Jazz Master and legendary drummer Louis Hayes. Ticket purchase includes:

·         Live performance and 3-course family style dinner (inclusive of tax & gratuity)

·         Prime viewing on the plaza

* This performance will take place outdoors with advanced ticket purchase required for prime viewing. Please purchase tickets ahead of time. Each table has an eight-person maximum. If you have a party larger party than eight people, please call 914.328.5166.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 8

12pm | FREE

Jazz at Noon: Edmar Castañeda

White Plains Public Library Plaza*, 100 Martine Ave.

*In event of rain, program will be held in the library auditorium

Colombian-born Edmar Castañeda has made a name for himself as the preeminent jazz harp virtuoso since arriving in the United States in 1994. Castañeda merges the jazz tradition with a diverse set of styles and genres.

7pm & 9pm | $45: single set (7pm or 9pm) // $80: both 7pm & 9pm sets (ArtsWestchester Members: $40 single set / $70 both)

John Scofield & Joe Lovano Quartet

ArtsWestchester, 31 Mamaroneck Ave.

Across more than three decades, a half-dozen albums, and hundreds of gigs, the partnership of John Scofield and Joe Lovano has defined contemporary jazz.  John Scofield is considered one of the most important guitarists and composers in jazz. Cleveland native Joe Lovano stands out as one of the most successful saxophonists in jazz today.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 9

2pm | FREE

The MCW Jazz Faculty Ensemble: A Tribute to Wayne Shorter

Music Conservatory of Westchester, 216 Central Ave.

The Music Conservatory of Westchester presents its jazz faculty ensemble, which will perform the music of saxophonist Wayne Shorter. Celebrating the music and life of this pillar of the jazz tradition are Hiroshi Yamazaki on piano, Mark Kraszewski on tenor sax, Alex Wintz on guitar, Jake Robinson on drums and Miles Gilbert on bass.

7pm & 9pm | $45: single set (7pm or 9pm) // $80: both 7pm & 9pm sets (ArtsWestchester Members: $40 single set / $70 both)
Cécile McLorin Salvant & Sullivan Fortner

ArtsWestchester, 31 Mamaroneck Ave.

Cécile McLorin Salvant has developed a passion for storytelling and finding the connections between vaudeville, blues, folk traditions from around the world, theater, jazz and baroque music. Salvant is an eclectic curator, unearthing rarely recorded, forgotten songs with strong narratives, interesting power dynamics, unexpected twists, and humor. For the past decade, Sullivan Fortner has been stretching deep-rooted talents as a pianist, composer, band leader and uncompromising individualist.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 10

12:30-7:30pm | FREE
White Plains Jazz & Food Festival

On Mamaroneck Ave., between Main St. and Martine Ave., White Plains, NY

12:30-1:15pm | Westchester Center for Jazz & Contemporary Music

The Westchester Center for Jazz & Contemporary Music provides opportunities for musicians of diverse backgrounds, abilities and ages to develop their skills in jazz and other related musical forms. This performance features a selection of the Center’s top student musicians and faculty.

1:45-2:45pm | Richie Goods & Chien Chien Lu

Bassist Richie Goods, one of the most versatile and accomplished bass players on the scene today, is the youngest person ever inducted into the Pittsburgh Jazz Hall of Fame.

Chien Chien Lu is a vibraphonist, contemporary percussionist and composer whose Taiwanese  upbringing, classical music education and passion for R&B grooves crystallize into a fresh and distinctive approach to contemporary jazz.

3:15–4:15pm | Mike Freeman ZonaVibe

Vibraphonist and composer Mike Freeman has been a part of the New York jazz and Latin music scenes for decades. His recordings of original music include tributes to Cal Tjader, Tito Puente and NEA Jazz Master Bobby Hutcherson.

4:45–5:45pm | Endea Owens & The Cookout

Detroit-raised recording artist, bassist and composer Endea Owens is known as one of jazz’s most vibrant emerging artists.

6:15–7:15pm | Mike Phillips

Mount Vernon native and contemporary jazz saxophonist Mike Phillips is one of the most electrifying instrumentalists today. Phillips combines smooth, romantic riffs with a funky, hip-hop-influenced sound.

Jennifer Furioli, Executive Director of the White Plains BID explains “White Plains is known for being a beacon of creativity and the arts, and every year both come to life in the heart of our downtown thanks to the longstanding and well-known White Plains Jazz Fest.”

JazzFest White Plains is made possible with major support by Montefiore Einstein with additional support from Westchester County, Apple Bank, Bright Energy Services, Westchester Center for Jazz and Contemporary Music, News 12 and Westchester Magazine.

For a full festival schedule and to purchase advanced tickets, visit artsw.org/jazzfest.