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JOHN BAILEY AND THE HARD NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW

THIS WEEK EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK

FOR 22 YEARS  2001-2023

LATIMER RUNS! PRIMARIES BOWMAN IN THE 16TH

CONGRESSMAN JAMAAL BOWMAN FAR RIGHT REACTS TO LATIMER ANNOUNCEMENT

THANKSGIVING COVID BAD PERFORMANCE BY WESTCHESTER:

EPIDEMIOLOGIST DR. JETELINA:22,000 TO 50,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS BY MID WINTER ACROSS U.S.A

JN-1 CIVID VARIANT ON WAY RAMPAGING ACROSS EUROPE

WHO’S LIVING IN THE 16TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT? PROFESSOR ROLANDI ANALYZES

LATIMER’S CHANCES WITH THE MINORITY MAJORITY DISTRICT

CHALLENGE TO REDRAWN DISTRICT 16 HEARD BY COURT OF APPEALS NOV 15–

“NO DECISION YET”

WHAT INFLATION? COUNTY, CITY DOWN IN SALES TAX COLLECTIONS

WHERE’S THE INFLATION FACTOR GONE?

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WPCNR ALBANY LAW JOURNAL. By John F. Bailey. December 6, 2023:

The Appeal of  the New York Supreme Court decision to accept the redrawn election districts put into effect after being created by an appointed Redistricting expert was heard in argument before the Court of Appeals in Buffalo November 15, 2023, according to the Clerk of the New York State Court of Appeals speaking to WPCNR this afternoon. The clerk told WPCNR–

“No decision has been made yet.”

The goal of the appeal is to rescind the court decision that the 2022 districts, including the  16th Congressional District, could not be redrawn by the legislature until after  the 2030 census.

Should the Court of Appeals grant the appeal, this could mean a fast redrawing of districts, in time for the 2024 Democratic Primary for the 16th Congressional District now featuring a challenge of incumbut Jamaal Bowman from now Westchester County Executive George Latimer announced today in a press release.

Here is a summary from the Court of Appeals of case and the appeal:

State of New York
Court of Appeals
Summaries of cases before the Court of Appeals

To be argued Wednesday, November 15, 2023, in Buffalo

No. 90 Matter of Hoffmann v New York State Independent Redistricting Commission

The primary question in this appeal is whether the congressional district map drawn on order of this
Court in Harkenrider v Hochul (38 NY3d 494 [2022]) is the final map that must be used until the next
redistricting cycle begins after the 2030 federal census, or if it is an interim map for use only in the 2022
elections and the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) can be compelled to submit a second set
of redistricting plans to the legislature for use in future congressional elections.

The IRC, established by a State Constitutional amendment in 2014, has ten members equally divided between the major political parties.

It deadlocked twice in 2022, first submitting two competing congressional maps to the Legislature, which rejected
them, and then failing to submit a second redistricting plan as required by the Constitution.

The Legislature then drew and adopted its own map, which was immediately challenged in Harkenrider. This Court ultimately declared the map void, finding that “the legislature and the IRC deviated from the constitutionally mandated [redistricting] procedure.”

It further ruled there was evidence to support the conclusion of the lower courts that
the congressional map was an unconstitutional gerrymander. Concluding that

“judicial oversight is required to facilitate the expeditious creation of constitutionally conforming maps for use in the 2022 election and to safeguard the constitutionally protected right of New Yorkers to a fair election,” this Court directed the trial court to adopt new district lines with the help of a neutral expert. The resulting map was used in last year’s congressional elections.

In June 2022, Anthony Hoffmann and nine other registered voters commenced this proceeding for a
writ of mandamus to compel the IRC to submit a second set of congressional redistricting plans to the
legislature to be used for the rest of this decade.

IRC Chair Ken Jenkins and two other commissioners answered in support of the petition to compel submission of a second map. The IRC remained divided, with Commissioner Ross Brady and four other members moving to dismiss the petition.

The original Harkenrider petitioners intervened and moved to dismiss the suit and retain the 2022 map. Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James filed an amicus brief in support of the petition for a new map.

Supreme Court dismissed the petition, saying it was timely, but “the requested relief to restrict the 2022
maps to the 2022 election violates the constitutional mandate [in article III, § 4(e)] that an approved map be in effect until” a new map is drawn after the next census.

The Appellate Division, Third Department reversed and granted the petition in a 3-2 decision, saying
the IRC had a constitutional duty to submit a second map after its first map was rejected and Harkenrider did
not remedy that failure.

Compelling the IRC to submit a new map to the legislature “honors the constitutional
enactments as the means of providing a robust, fair and equitable procedure for the determination of voting
districts in New York…,” it said.

“[I]n granting this petition, we return the matter to its constitutional design.”

The dissenters argued the  (Hochul-James) petition was untimely and, in any event, “the Constitution requires that …
court-ordered maps remain in place until after the next census.”

They said there was no statement in Harkenrider that the court-drawn map was only for use in the 2022 election, and its “judicial remedy cured the IRC’s failure to act by lawfully establishing a redistricting plan for the ordinary duration, leaving no uncured violation of law and thus foreclosing mandamus.”

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WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By Professor Stephen Rolandi. December 6, 2023:

LATIMER TO RUN FOR CONGRESS – 16 C.D.

County Executive Latimer’s decision to file for the Democratic Party nomination for the 2024 16 C.D. primary against incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman will draw national attention in a year when the Democrats’ strategy to re-claim the House majority runs “through New York State.”

Mr. Latimer is term-limited as County Executive in 2025, so it is the logical next step for him to run for Congress.

The 16 C.D. includes a small portion of Bronx County (Wakefield); the bulk of the District covers the southern half of Westchester County, including: White Plains, Mount Vernon, Yonkers, New Rochelle, Rye, Port Chester, Mamaroneck and Larchmont.

According to the 2020 census, the 16 C.D. is 40% white; 60% persons of color (breakdown is: 19% African-American; 30% Spanish-speaking; 6% Asian; 5% other); women make up 52% of the District and men, 48%; median household income is $ 96,000. This is a district that is strongly Democratic, as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden all won the 16 C.D.

In 2022, Representative Bowman, running for re-election, received only 56% in the primary and 64% in the general election against an under-funded Republican-Independent candidate. He is a member of Justice Democrats, the “Squad,” and  has been endorsed by the Working Families Party (WFP) for re-election. He has angered many voters in the 16 C.D. by his controversial stands on many issues.

This should benefit Mr. Latimer, who is viewed as a centrist Democrat and has won repeatedly in elections that comprise the 16 C.D. as well as Westchester County. He will likely run a campaign stressing his dynamic public service record and his ability to appeal to a wide range of voters in the District.

1. The State Legislature has to set the primary date — might be June, might be August, or could be both  – one day for state primary elections, the other for Federal offices;
    
2. I believe there is pending litigation on the Congressional district lines; if resolved in time for the primary, it could have some impact on the Latimer-Bowman primary.  

Bottom Line:

Given the district’s demographics, I would expect Mr. Latimer to win the June primary. The general election may be a different story; Mr. Bowman has the WFP endorsement; a three way-race could occur if Mr. Latimer wins the Democratic Primary, and the Republican and Conservative Parties recruit their own candidate. 

If that candidate were well-funded and more moderate (similar to Rep. Mike Lawler), the race could be competitive. This will also depend on who is running at the top of ticket for President. Time will tell.

(Professor Stephen Rolandi previously served as Deputy Commissioner for the New York State Division of Human Rights, and the New York City Department of Records and Information Services. A political scientist, he is an Adjunct Professor of Public Administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY. His views do not necessarily reflect those of his current/former employers).

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WPCNR QUILL & EYESHADE. From the New York State Department of Taxation & Finance. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. December 4, 2023:

The City of White Plains has collected $18,581,270  in sales tax receipts the first four months of its fiscal year, compared to %18,921,084 in the first 4 months of the city 2022 fiscal year.

The city is  actually  down 1.7%. The city has to hope for a big-time November-December to catch up. At this rate the city is looking at a $46 Million sales tax handle which would create hole in the city budget due to the practice of taking $5.2 million in restricted sales tax use to pay raises in salaries. This may  need to be dealt with as the city takes up the 2023-24 budget. The city may already be looking ahead, considering  doubling of parking rates in high volume city parking lots and a rise in fines in city-owned garages.

Last November December, White Plains collected $9,918,562 in sales tax. If they meet that figure the city is sitting on $28.9 Million in sales tax for the first 6 months of the city 22022-23 fiscal year. If the city sees the continued trend in sales tax collections not matching inflation or if the rate of staying flat continues, it is going to be tough to make the additional $5.2 million budgeted in 23-24 for the restricted sales payment.

Here’s what the trend looks like right now for White Plains NY, USA after comparing the trends over the last year:

 If the city in the next 6 months of the fiscal year does not top the collected January 2023 to June 2023 the city will make exactly $46.1 in fiscal 23-24. Worse if it continues to decline or stay flat the city will make less and may have to get the restricted sales tax contribution by either raising other sources  of revenue. They will not get the $50 million in sales taxes they just barely made last year. 

A decline in November December sales tax numbers for 2022 would be a bad omen. But that has rarely happened.

If White Plains receives a November December rush this will ease the things a lot. Why, because if spending continues at the Jan-June spending rate, White Plains will hit $56,417 ,762 and the city will  have its $5.2 million for restricted fund balance plus a $6 Million surplus in sales tax revenues

The City of White Plaines received $27,917,930 in sales taxes from January 2023 through June 2023. If that stays the same, the city will gross $56,471, 762

WHITE PLAINS AND WESTCHESTER JUNE 2023 WERE APPROXIMATELY EVEN IN SALES TAX COLLECTION RECEIPTS COMPARED TO JUNE 2022 LAST YEAR. WHITE PLAINS WENT UP 1% AFTER THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2023. AND HIT $50.7 MILLION FOR THE 2021-22 FISCAL. 

What does this tell us? Neither White Plains nor Westchester consumers have come back to previous sales tax driving behavior. City and County have not even experience increases from inflation.

The lagging sales tax receipts in the city has to be concerning because it may reflect a lack of patronage in the city restaurants, a lack of traffic in the city ‘s two remaining shopping malls, The Westchester and the City Center that lost its movie theatres last spring.

Failure of to receive any boost from the inflation rate year to year cumulatively reported as 3.5% by the government, including food and fuel, has to be of concern.

Meanwhile Westchester County, is again facing the effect of another overoptimistic sales tax receipts forecast. Last year the county met the sales tax gap by using fund balance to pay for the gap, and used covid aid to replace the transfer of fund balance.

The County: Behind Sales Receipts, $24 Million

The County projected $913 Million in sales tax for 2023, guessing the full 1% sales tax increase would bring a windfall plus inflation. The County so faR according to the state Department of Taxation and Finance has collected $ 728,953,551 in sales taxes and if they collect the same amount in November-December they did last year without a huge increase the county will receive $889.2 Million with $913 Million budgeted for sales tax – approximately a $24 Million gap.

If there were a 5% increase in the November-December County sales tax holiday handle over last year, the handle would rise $8 Million raising sales tax receipts for the year to 897 Million. Not enough.T If the Nov December  handle rises 10%, that gives the county $16 million more dollars and essentially erases the $24 Million deficit the county is now running.

The County is crossing its fingers.

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WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER December 2, 2023:

(RE: Ms. Paul NY TIMES “STOP BADMOUTHING BIDEN” COLUMN):

 You write: “‘Stop badmouthing Biden,’ some Democrats will say, as if acknowledging reality were akin to arming the enemy.”

The Fourth Estate is the maker of reality. When you and your colleagues in the So-Called Liberal Media join Fox in bashing Biden, his poor ratings becomes your fault. Thus when you demand that Biden step down (when it’s clear he won’t), it is not only feckless, it’s shameless.

You write: “But even if Biden has done a pretty good job as president, most Americans don’t see that.”

He’s not done a “pretty good” job, he’s done a spectacular job, and if Americans don’t see that, it is the fault of the same clueless, craven SCLM that helped elect Trump in the first place. To adopt your metaphor, you are the time bomb ticking under the table. Every time you write about Biden’s age while ignoring Trump’s – or the fact that Trump is far less healthy – mentally or physically – than Biden. My God, do you not have eyes? Or sense?

The Times’s “all-inflation-all-the time” coverage shamelessly buried the causes of inflation, including kinked supply lines and overdemand, when COVID money that would have been spent on vacations and eating out instead was spent on goods because Republicans resistance to the vaccine roll-out prevented re-opening of the economy, and of course CORPORATE GREED, while running human interest stories on how badly people (not SCLM reporters, of course) were faring.  If you had done your job, Americans would have had a much different impression of Biden.

Read your colleague David Brooks on Biden as a transformational president. He could be the anti-Reagan, rolling back 40 years of class warfare in which the bottom 90% transferred some 50 trillion dollars to the top 1%.

Biden played Republicans in the same way Reagan played Democrats (viz. letting Kevin McCarthy take credit for the debt ceiling deal after Biden got everything he wanted; or setting up Republicans at the SOTU to promise they wouldn’t touch Social Security or Medicare). What Democrat today can do that going forward? Biden learned from watching Republicans

Here’s a list of what Biden accomplished in his first two years:

• Cutting child poverty by 35% in 2021 by expanding the Child Tax Credit

• IRA is the greatest investment in green energy American history

• The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is the largest long-term investment in infrastructure and the economy in American history.

• The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act is the first gun safety legislation in nearly three decades.

• The PACT Act is the biggest expansion of veterans’ benefits in over three decades and provides medical care for veterans exposed to toxic chemicals.

• The CHIPS Act invests in microchip production to make America more competitive with China and reduce our reliance on foreign sources for a vital component used by the defense industry. T

That’s not “a pretty good job.” That’s doing more with less than any Democrat in this or the last century. Some more metrics are below.

DO YOUR HOMEWORK. DO YOUR JOB. AND STOP ARMING THE ENEMY.

Michael

Michael K. Cantwell

Editor, The Delray Democrat

Delray Beach, FL

(Reprinted with permission of the author)