OUTBREAK OUTLOOK: NORTHEAST NOV. 4– FLU ON RISE IN NY CONNECTICUT. COVID CONTINUES TO FADE

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Welcome to the Northeastern edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

Respiratory Diseases

ILI

Most of the region is reporting low levels of influenza-like illness, with a few exceptions. There’s a general pattern of decreasing activity as you move north, with the lowest levels in northern New England.

New Jersey and New York City stand out from the rest of the Northeast, with both reporting over 4% of visits due to flu-like illness (4.2% and 4.5% respectively).

Connecticut is the next highest at 2.4% of visits, while New York State (excluding NYC) is reporting about 2% of visits for ILI.

A cluster of states including MassachusettsMaineRhode Island, and Pennsylvania are all reporting similar moderate levels between 1.5-1.8% of visits.

New Hampshire and Vermont have the region’s lowest activity, at 1.3% and 1.0% respectively.


COVID-19

Covid-19 wastewater activity is minimal and decreasing in the Northeast. It is lower now than at any point in the last year. Severe illness is also low and declining in most states in the region.

Source: CDC

Activity was moderate in Vermont and Pennsylvania (limited data). It was low or minimal in New YorkNew JerseyRhode IslandMassachusetts, and Connecticut. The exception to this rosy picture is Maine, where wastewater activity spiked this past week, from moderate to high activity.

Source: CDC

Trips to the ED for Covid-19 are minimal (<1.5% of all ED visits) in every state in the region. The rate decreased across much of the region this past week, including in MassachusettsNew Hampshire, and Vermont. In New York, both ED visits and hospitalizations are down. Hospitalizations in the state decreased for the fourth week in a row, to 3.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. This is still a bit elevated but much better than where it was a month ago. In Connecticut, ED visits declined, but hospitalizations crept up a bit, to 3.6. ED visits held steady in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. No states reported an increase in ED visits.


RSV

Minimal activity, according to both hospitalizations and wastewater. Enjoy the lull!


Other Bugs

Some common causes of respiratory illness, with cold and flu-like symptoms, continue to rise nationally.

  • Parainfluenza viruses in particular has increased rapidly, and is up to about 5% test positivity. Parainfluenza viruses have had two waves in the past year, and right now test positivity is higher than its peak last fall, but remains lower than its peak in May of this year (which was 8%).
  • After decreasing slightly a couple weeks ago, rhinoviruses/enteroviruses have also increased again in the past week, and remain quite elevated at 28% test positivity.
  • Adenovirus has been slowly increasing for the past few weeks, as have human coronaviruses, though neither are at particularly high levels at the moment.

Stomach Bugs

Norovirus rates are low in the Northeast – around 2% – in contrast to the rest of the country. Norovirus tends to pick up starting around November – and other regions are already seeing increases, so I’m enjoying the quiet while it lasts!


Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New:

  • Enoki mushrooms sold by HH Fresh Trading Corp (more info)
  • Kirkland Signature Smoked Salmon (more info)
  • Gourmet Cafe Chicken Caesar Salad Bowls sold by Fresh Express (more info)

Previously reported:

  • Waffles and pancakes – many flavors and styles – sold under a very large variety of brand names, including numerous store brands, including 365 Organic, Best Choice, Good & Gather, Harris Teeter, H-E-B, Nature’s Promise, Publix, Trader Joe’s and Wegmans.
    • Given the size of this recall, if you have any variety of frozen/toaster waffles, Belgian waffles or pancakes in your freezer that you bought in the US or Canada, check this list. (more info)
  • Prepackaged Chicken Street Taco Meal Kit produced by Sprouts Farmers Market (more info)
  • Ready to eat meals and store-made deli items including chicken from a variety of grocery chains, including Albertsons, Safeway, Star Market, and others. (more info)
  • Green onions sold under Church Brothers, Trader Joe’s and Imperial Fresh brand names (more info)
  • Prepackaged sandwiches – Pepperjack Cheeseburger, Bacon Cheeseburger and The Gambler sold under the Dakota Tom’s brand name (more info)
  • Large variety of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products under different brand names, including Rao’s chicken alfredo and Michael Angelo’s grilled chicken piccata with penne pasta (more info)
  • If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In other news

  • Greely High School in Cumberland, Maine is under investigation by the Maine CDC for a whooping cough outbreak following multiple reported cases, including a recent one this week. Pertussis, or whooping cough, spreads through respiratory droplets and starts with cold-like symptoms that progress to a severe cough. School officials are notifying students and staff of potential exposure.
    • Vaccines that protect against pertussis include the DTaP vaccine for infants and young children and the Tdap booster for older children, teens, and adults. The CDC recommends DTaP doses at 2, 4, 6, and 15-18 months, with a final dose at 4-6 years. Tdap is recommended at 11-12 years, with adults advised to get a Tdap booster every 10 years to maintain immunity.

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