“MT. COVID.”CURRENT 2-DAY FAST INFECTION OF COVID COMBINED WITH 300 NEW INFECTIONS DAILY IN WESTCHESTER (2,000 A WEEK) COULD CREATE 12,063 CASES THIS CHRISTMAS WEEK. 10 COUNTIES AROUND NYC URGED TO WEAR MASKS BY CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL.

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WESTCHESTER COMPLETES THIRD WEEK OF 2,000 NEW COVID CASES IN ROW. 300 A DAY GETTING INFECTED.

Mt. ETNA, SICILY 2019…all quiet but the black dried lava on right remains. (WPCNR PHOTO)

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. December 18: UPDATED DEC. 20, 2022:

I see the covid statistics as a volcano , a Mt. Etna (pictured above IN 2019) on the island of Sicily. The daily rate of infections smoking at the top innocently against a blue sky. The blackened lava eruptions of past thousands of years in wide swaths down its sides

Meanwhile, inside the vast mystery in the base of the volcano containing the lava of unconfirmed untested, or positive tested persons (afraid to report to verify their positive) is building the potential for fast, fast fast infections over the next weeks.

That is what happened to Westchester 12 months ago, when “Mt. Covid”erupted.

The NY Covid Tracker reported Monday that Westchester County has 192 lab-validated new covid cases raising the Westchester total to 2,108 for the week December 11 through December 17.

Last week ended Saturday is the third consecutive week, the covid tracker reported Westchester with over 2,000 new cases, which would total 6,730 new covid cases since the Friday after Thanksgiving, on track to produce 7,000 to 8,000 new cases next week (the week before Christmas.

But the total could double that because of how quickly covid afflicted persons spread the disease to others: within 2 days. I am seeing now for the last 3 weeks sharp increases on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday the days when cases used to under 200 new infections before Thanksgiving.

One year ago in 2021, December 12 to 18, Westchester recorded 5,367 new cases of covid (when there were no vaccines available to protect the population).

This year with vaccines, Westchester has exceeded that total.

In the week after Christmas just 5,367 covid cases resulted in the spreading the disease to 12,063 people the week before Christmas. WPCNR estimates the 2,184 infections from last week (December 4-10) will combine with th 2,000 infections this week to infect 300 persons a day during the week before Christmas, or a conservative total of 4,200 people.

If the coronavirus now out there spreads as fast as it did the last two week period ended yesterday infecting people within 2 days, (because of the faster rate of transmission of diseases, reflected in higher cases on the first 5 days of the week the last 3 weeks), you might expect more than 4,200 infections next week.

Last year there were 12, 063 infections from December 18 to 24, but that was when Westchester was masking. If everyone masked this coming week at gatherings, parties, on traveling, and finished off their vaccinations the spread will be reigned in. If you do not mask and do not get fully vaccinated, we may see considerably more than the current 309 infections a day.

Do not forget the percentage of positive tests verified by labs out of Westchester County. It was 7% on Friday and holding at an 8.5% average through 6 days.

Let’s look at the placid NY Covid Tracker that unflinchingly puts out the results of positives of only lab-verified tests .

Last week in one of the most obscure statistics ever created Westchester had an average daily infection rate daily of 33 new cases daily (per 100,000 of population according to the NY Covid Tracker). What does this really mean?

If you multiply 33 by the population of Westchester per 100,000 of the 2022 population 1,004,457 which creates 10 blocks of 100,000 people- 10.04) you get infections of 331 (not 33) daily for 5 of 6 days in the county Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday) which is 2,317 a week with vaccines available, and masking available, personal socializing within citizens’ control, all doable by Westchester citizens, they just have to do it).

This means unless behavior and personal completion of vaccination full quotas of doses responsibilities are not brought up to date by you and me Mr. and Mrs and Ms. Westchester , do not improve we may get considerably more than 2,317 a week.

Here’s why: the week before Thansgiving (Nov 20-26) saw an increase in how many newly infected with covid persons spread it to other persons.

Each newly infected person of the 1,139 infected with covid (lab-test verified only, from November 20 to 26 to the week of November 26 through December 3 infected to 6 others after Thanksgiving holiday lifting new infections to 2,102. Divide 2,102 by 1,139 and you get a 1 infectee infecting 6 other persons.

That is what the pre-Thanksgiving infections did.

As I wrote previously, the 2, 317 infections a week the NY Covid Tracker reports Westchester averaging based on the rate of 33 daily per our 1,004,457 population (10.04 100,000 segments) we can expect those 2,317 infections a week to bring possibly 13,903 infections by the end of next week which totals ,more than last year’s 12,063 when we had no vaccines, just masks and personally being careful.

But, you Mr. and Mrs. and Ms. Westchester can prevent that. It is in your hands, and personal discipline.

The other 8 counties surrounding New York City as well as NYC as of Friday, Dec. 16, these New York counties are in the “orange” zone with “high” COVID levels where masks are currently recommended:

  • Westchester County
  • Rockland County
  • Orange County
  • Putnam County
  • Nassau County
  • Suffolk County
  • Bronx County
  • Kings County (Brooklyn)
  • Queens County
  • Richmond County (Staten Island)

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