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31 CASES A DAY COUNTYWIDE. POSSIBLE 8,000 CASES JANUARY 9.
Thanksgiving 2022 socializing infections parallel a year ago.
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey December 12, 2022:
The verdict is in on Westchester County Thanksgiving performance.
Guilty of spreading covid at a rate 1 person to 6 others.
The 1,379 persons who tested positive for covid the week of November 20 to November 26 lead up to Thanksgiving spread of covid to 2,102 persons in the 7 days after Thanksgiving weekend from Sunday through the holiday.
In the two week contagious period of those 1,379 persons, 2,184 more new persons were infected with covid.
The week after Thanksgiving generated new cases at the average rate of 300 new persons testing positive lab-verified a day. That rate was sharply up from 200 a day the previous 2 weeks.
The second week of December ended Saturday continued the 301 daily new infections rate.
What does this mean for Westchester County in the coming weeks?
The covid tracker provides the only real indicator of where infections are headed.
We no longer have school district reports of number of student, faculty and staff cases which was such a help last year enabling the district to reopen safely in the spring. Now, we have no idea where the schools are in student & staff infections of covid.
This unsubstantiated decision was caused by the State Health Department that decided school districts did not have to report infections of school populations.Why not?
That was not a good decision.
Now, I repeat we have no idea how infections of school children and teachers and staff are managing this obvious spread that is happening. I only assume parents are confident that their children are O.K. Assumptions are not facts.
We do know that Long Island and New York City hospitals are overrun with respiratory, covid and flu cases, ccording to sketchy reports last week. The Center for Disease Control named Westchester a high risk area and urged return to mask-wearing indoors. Note the word urged. Urging is not enforcing.
The Purchase College is complying sendingout an email Friday saying that on all buildings on campus persons must wear masks indoors.
We also know that the 6 other counties in the Mid-Hudson Region are up sharply in infections. Orange, Rockland Dutchess Ultser Counties were up. Orange reported 136 cases Thursday, 87 Friday, 58 Saturday. Rockland 111, Thursday, 110 Friday, 43, Saturday; Dutchess 104 Thursday,46 Friday,28, Saturday.
Now where is Westchester heading?
Will the laissez-faire covid attitude of Westchester continue? What happens if it does?
Last year at exactly this time, Westchester reported 1,960 new cases the 6th of December; and 2,791 the 11th of December. The daily rate of infections was 280 the first week, and the second the daily infections averaged 400 a day. The infections those first two weeks of December one year ago numbered 4,751. Those infections were from a population that did not have vaccines.
This year in Westchester County ,the first two weeks of December with full vaccinations, and boosters available, children vaccines available, for a year, What were the Westchester infections?
The last two weeks were 2,102 last week and 2,184, a total of 4,286, just 465 less that last year this week when there were no vaccines! How can this be?
The weeks ahead.
Currently Westchester County last Friday was averaging of 27.6 daily new infections (per 100,000 of population)
To translate that for you, Westchester has 1,004,477 people you divide that by 100,000 and you multiply that daily figure of 27.6 for Westchester that gives you 277 new cases daily.
In one week, you get 1,939 infections by next week, December 17 (note very close to the 2,184 this week). Now if those 1,939 new cases spread it from each of them to 6 others you will get by December 24, 3,102 cases.
Bear in mind infections accumulate each day at varying rates. If each person socialized more irresponsibly, did not wear a mask and goes into crowds a lot, unmasked those new infections a week could balloon.
That is what happened last December. By December 31, the County– conservatively– given the present 1 person spread to 6 others you would get 4,963 infections and by January 8, 7,942.
With the same number of infections as we have this year (with no vaccines available), Westchester took the blow of 5,397 infections the week of December 18 of 2021, 12,063 on the week Christmas; 26,002 the week of Dec 25 to January 1, 2021, 25,294 the week of January 2 to 8, 2022, and 16,782 the week of January 9 to 15, 2022. We had to lock down.
Is there any official in the state, any State Senator or Assemblyman going to do that?
What do you think?
We are on our own.
Be careful out there.