WESTCHESTER LOWERS NEW COVID INFECTIONS FOR 6TH WEEK IN ROW– 1,299 –DOWN 22% FROM LAST WEEK 49% IN AUGUST. MONKEYPOX IN WESTCHESTER: 75 CASES AS OF SUNDAY 8/22.

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WPCNR DOUBLEDEMIC REPORT. From New York State Covid Tracker & MONKEYPOX TRACKER. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. August 21, 2022:

Westchester is reported as having tested 162 persons positive Saturday, and 219 positive on Friday bringing the week’s new infections down 22% since a week ago to 1,299: the lowest number of infections since March 27 to April 2nd when the county reported 1,095 infections.

More significant is August has so far reported 5,025 new covid cases in August two weeks before the Labor Day Weekend as opposed to 10,298 in the month of July, cutting new cases 49% in the so far incomplete August of 2022.

The four weeks and three days of August 2021 showed 5,704 new cases, a decline in cases of year to year after the July surge of 2021, of 673 cases this year, only 12% less. This presents a puzzle which we will not know the answer to until the fall.

In July of 2021 Westchester showed 1,724 new positives generating 5,704 cases last August.

This July, we had far more Covid positives, 10,298 in July, and positives are down in August by 12%.

This anomaly of less infections from many more positives in the month ended 3 weeks ago, is very welcome. It may mean the disease is not appearing to spread to as many because people are not getting tested, or not reporting home test positives, which means after September resumes, we may see a bunch of new infections from the schools, the Labor Day Weekend socializing, or people coming back from vacation with virtually no mandatory covid spread protocols in place. None.

Or, it could mean the disease is in decline, though it does have a 6% reinfection rate after 90 days meaning those 10,298 infectees could the covid again and add 617 new covid cases in September countywide.

We had 10,298 new cases August 1 from July 2022, ended 21 days ago. Those July 10,298 so far infected 5,029 new people in August, which tells me covid cases in July spread it in August so far at a 4.9% spread rate.

The salient fact is each positive covid tester in July is spreading it cumulatively to 5 people.

This Spread Rate is much better, as this week’s infection rate is running 7.4% on an average daily testing universe of 2,626 persons, meaning 185 new cases a day– a lot better than the 250 a day last week (August 7 to 13) and 295 a day the first week in August (1-6).

What will this mean in the fall? Let’s go back to the WPCNR LOGBOOK OF COVID 2021 for the answer:

In September of 2021 with 9 months of vaccinations in Westchester arms, there was serious masking and socializing restrictions, and theatres and movies and sports and concerts restricted attendance or were cancelled, and around 80% of County residents with one dose observe:

September went to 4,550 new infections based on 7,704 new cases in August., a 6% infection in August, 2021.

Westchester is in the same position on the numbers as we were in 2021. But now Westchester continues in an “Anything Goes” health environment going into the fall. Vaccinations have also not increased much past the 82% and the numbers of children under 5 in Westchester fully vaccinated against covid is low since the vaccine for that segment was only recently approved. In New York City, 61% of children 5 to 17 are fully vaccinated which is very good news for the New York Schools. The low school populations fully vaccinated in the county is cause for concern:

The Fully vaccinated and the almost vaccinated in Westchester County

In Westchester as of August 17 (Wednesday),

3.3% of children under 5 were fully vaccinated.

54.6% of children 5 to 11 were fully vaccinated

88.7% of 12 to 17 year olds were fully vaccinated.

80.7% of 18 to 25 year olds were fully vaccinated

85.5% of 26-34 year olds were fully vaccinated,

90.1% of 35 to 44 year olds were fully vaccinated

87.1% of 45 to 54 year olds are fully vaccinated

55-64s,93.1% Fully Vaccinated

65 to 74s, 99.6% Fully Vaccinated.

In the fall last year with restrictions in effect, we built up infections going into Thanksgiving and the December holidays to covid’s highest infections ever in Westchester 36,000 cases in January.

So once again, more than ever it is up to you New York.

Here are the Monkey Pox Cases as of the end of the week for the various regions:

THIS JUST IN AUGUST 22, 2 PM: WESTCHESTER CASES OF MONKEYPOX AS OF SUNDAY NOW REPORTED 75

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