WESTCHESTER’S HIDDEN SPREAD

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COVID MINGLING CONTINUES:  553  MORE WESTCHESTER RESIDENTS REPORTED COVID POSITIVE TUESDAY AFTER WEEKEND.

COVIDSTOPPERS NOTEBOOK: Since April 18, in 3 weeks and 3 days Westchester County has grown covid cases to 3,120 ending Saturday, and it’s infection rates to over 10% on the same average number of tests 4,982 a day, with new positives Tuesday growing at 431 a Day. New York City all 5 Boroughs infections are averaging 3,816 a day, a rate of 28,000 a week. Nassau County and Suffolk had 1,814 new positives Tuesday. The Mid-Hudson region has doubled new positives in 3 weeks and 3 days. WPDH Radio in Poughkeepsie in Dutchess County reported that in Hyde Park, schools were closed the rest of the week because school bus companies had too many drivers infected with covid to drive enough school buses.

WPCNR THE COVID DAILY. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observations and Analysis by John F. Bailey. May 12, 2022:

New Covid cases are running 431 cases a day since Sunday, rising in America’s richest county.

On Sunday, new cases of covid in Westchester County numbered 379 from a mere 3,492 PCR Tests Saturday. The PCR test results are the only test results being reported by the New York State Department of Health

Look what happened on Monday and Tuesday of this week the last  days results were reported:

On Sunday reporting,  5,578 PCR tests reported administered Saturday found 497  infections Saturday (9.1%) the day before. If 5,000 came in to test Sunday instead of 3,492 being tested producing 342 you might have gotten 550 new positives. If 10,000 were tested Sunday, you might have gotten 1,000 positives.

This is what I call the hidden spread: persons not testing, asymptomatic like Governor Hochul, or anyone for that matter and resuming back to normal activities, when Westchester is not back to normal.

 If the proportion of positives Saturday 497  positive on 5,578 tests, growing 10% of those test was the same growing at 9% you could conceivably have grown to 1,100 positives on Sunday — if 10,000 had been tested Sunday.

On Monday, 2,926 persons were tested. That produced 363 positives, 13.4%. The 2,926 tested Monday is 1/3 of 10,000. So if 10,000 tested Monday,with the same 13% positive portion as appeared Monday,   you might have found 1,137  new persons positive with covid.

Now here’s the twist:

Persons numbering 553 were reported being positive in Westchester Tuesday on 5,406 tests.

On Monday, 2,926 were tested and 363 were found positive. 2,926 IS 54% of 5,406 tests. If you double the 363 positives (that tested positive Sunday, but were reported Monday), you get 726, more than the 553 .

But this serendipitous example I just found demonstrates the ominous proportional “hidden” growth on this most recent example demonstrates how high numbers in low testing of positives, I believe means many more infections and misery in the weeks ahead.

Is this really a hidden spread? You have over 10% testing positive on 5,000 tests that’s 500 a day, 3500 a week next week.

There are no plans to do anything about this. Vaccines are down. Testing is available, but tests are the same average per day they have been since February 1.

Monday and Tuesday showed results of possible infection of persons worried enough to get tested Sunday, 363 tested positive Monday, and yesterday, 553 tested positive of 5,406 taking the PCR test.

Using the proportional projection. If you test more you will get more cases than Westchester can handle very shortly.

This will happen if the new positives on low quantities continue at the high infection rates the last 17 days.

The low number of tests appear to be because people can only get the most effective PCR tests at authorized locations like the Westchester County Center, the Yonkers Armory, and the Westchester County Department of Health in White Plains on Court Street and popup locations. Those locations and times are available on the www.westchestergov.com website. The PCR tests are also used by public schools in the county, which distributes the preferred tests to schools requesting them.

As most people should know there are at-home tests, but only PCR test results are reported by the state as the official new daily case counts since April 4.

Let’s look back:

The number of tests being administered per day in 8 weeks when new positive covid cases in Westchester was in decline  from February 1 to April 4  was 4,992 in Westchester County,.

Infections had declined throughout February to an average 492 a week with a daily infection rate of 2%.

In March, the covid virus continued in decline two weeks were up but went down the next week The last week in March the virus came back, went up to 1,095 infections up  27%–the first bellwether Westchester was bringing covid back big time.

 Beginning the first week in April the County has increased infections steadily for 6 weeks, rising from 1,095 cases the last week in March to 1,895; 2,027; 2,156 the next week; then 2,459 then last week  growing to 3,120 new infections. The Fifth Wave has begun.

The average number of tests per day during the April-May Covid surge was 4,981. There has been no wide swings in tests administered since February 1.

Meanwhile, since April 24, 2 weeks and 3 days ago, the infection rate has gone from 7%   infected test takers the week of April 24 to 30; to 8.4% May 1 to 7.

The Westchester infection rate has exploded on slightly higher testing to 11.4% on 3,941 tests in just  3 days.

 This big switch, as far as WPCNR makes out is the main reason there are lower numbers of tests:

It’s hard to get the PCR test it is not on every corner. Another reason could be fear of being found positive and having to quarantine or  not socialize or miss school, or not go to work.

As WPCNR has pointed out previously, the larger numbers testing positive on lower Covid test universes indicate more people in the Westchester and metropolitan area in general are catching and spreading the Covid virus, no matter what the variant variety they get – and spreading it faster—seeing and infecting too many people. It is behavior that is causing yet again, another wave.

If 10,000 had tested Monday in Westchester,  you would have had the 1,000 positives. I cannot get my mind around that.

This is the hidden spread not being reported.

With not enough persons coming in for the reliable PCR tests at county facilities, you just are not getting a complete picture of the penetration of the spread every hour and its disruptive potential.

You are on your own. Covid is really out there. The unlucky positives the last three days prove that.

Make the right decisions for yourself.

You are on your own.

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