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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS MONITOR. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis by John F. Bailey. January 18, 2021:

WESTCHESTER IS SLOWING  THE COVID SPREAD AS HAS BEEN PREDICTED BY RESEARCHERS.

ON SUNDAY THE NUMBER OF POSITIVES IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY  DROPPED TO 978. SUNDAY THE 16TH WAS THE 8^TH STRAIGHT DAY WESTCHESTER KEPT POSITIVE COVID CASES TO UNDER 3,000 NEW CASES. THIS IS GOOD NEWS. THE COUNTY AVERAGED 2,397 UNFORTUNATE NEW CASES A DAY JANUARY 9 TO 14.

THE SUNDAY DROP TO 978 CASES WAS A DROP OF 1,193 CASES FROM THE 2,171 ON SATURDAY THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE LAST DAY WESTCHESTER COUNTY HAD AS FEW AS 978 CASES WAS DECEMBER 16 THE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS WHEN 904 NEW COVID CASES WERE REPORTED BY THE STATE.

 THE STATE REPORTED 16,782 NEW COVID CASES  LAST WEEK A DROP OF 8,512  FROM THE  25,294 JANUARY UARY 9 TO 16., COMPARED TO THE 26,002, SUFFERED FROM DECEMBER 26 TO JANUARY 1.

THE 16,782 INFECTIONS LAST WEEK  MEANT THE 26,000 INFECTIONS THE FIRST WEEK INFECTED 14 DAYS LATER  ABOUT .645 PER PERSON WHICH MEANS PERSONS INFECTED BUT SPREAD THE DISEASE TO AT A MUCH LOWER NUMBER OF OTHERS.

AROUND THE MID HUDSON  COUNTIES ALL ARE GOING DOWN IN INFECTIONS THOUGH THE INFECTION RATE AVERAGES   ON SUNDAY THE 7 COUNTIES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INCLUDING WESTCHESTER THE STATE REPORTED  5,980 NEW CASES.

ROCKLAND SECOND TO WESTCHESTER, WITH 1,353; ORANGE WITH 981; DUTCHESS 760; ULSTER, 345; PUTNAM 182 AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, 188. HOWEVER THE OTHER 6 COUNTIES ARE INFECTING AN AVERAGE 14.7% OF ALL TESTED. WESTCHESTER HAS A 12.2% INFECTION RATE.

THE SUNDAY FIGURES IN MONDAY FOUND WESTCHESTER WITH 978; ROCKLAND, 523; ORANGE, 486; DUTCHESS, 315; ULSTER; 140; PUTNAM; 134; SULLIVAN, 57. TOTAL NEW CASES IN THE MID-HUDSON REGION 2,673 DOWN FROM THE 6,000 A DAY THE 7 COUNTIES HAD BEEN AVERAGING.

MY OBSERVATION IS THE COLD WEATHER LAST WEEK MIGHT HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE LOWER SPREAD, AND WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THE INFECTIONS DO GOING INTO WEEK FOUR OF JANUARY.

DEPENDING ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF NEW CASES OF 25,000 TWO WEEKS AGO..IF YOU HAVE A HOSPITALIZATION RATE OF 2.3% (LAST WEEK’S HOSPITALIZATION RATE) WHICH LED TO 624 HOSPITALIZATIONS THIS IS WHAT THE NUMBER OF HOSPITALIZATIONS MIGHT BE:

WE WOULD HAVE 575 NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS APPROXIMMATELY.

IF 5% ARE HOSPITALIZED OF THE 25,000, WESTCHESTER COULD HIT 1,250 HOSPITALIZATIONS THAT WOULD STRESS HOSPITAL CAPACITY IN THE COUNTY. SO WESTCHESTERITES SHOULD KEEP BEING CAREFUL, ABANDON SOCIALIZING.

EVEN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK CASES DECLINED LAST WEEK TO 1,683 AND 1,624 CASES EACH.

NEW YORK CITY REPORTED 21,623 NEW CASES SUNDAY, COMPARED TO 8,573 CASES IN THE 9 COUNTIES SURROUNDING IT, ALMOST A 3 TO 1 MARGIN.