WPCNR COVID 19 MONITOR. From the NY State Covid-19 Workbook. Observations by John F. Bailey. November 28, 2021:
With the Sunday Covid numbers to go, due out tomorrow, it is obvious the Fourth Wave of Covid building is strengthening in breadth and new infections across the 9 Counties and New York City’s five boroughs.
Saturday New York City reported 1,641 cases in the five boroughs.
In the rest of the MidHudson region, Ulster showed 49 cases; Sullivan (36) Putnam (17) The Mid Hudson infection rate was 4.8% of 42, 819 tested. Nassau and Suffolk are spreading the disease alarmingly in this reporter’s opinion, and have been for weeks.
In 13 of the last 18 days, the 9 counties have had more cases of new covid than New York City.
The populations of the 9 counties are spreading the disease at a rapid rate.
Suffolk County had 848 new cases reported of covid positives and a 6.2% infection rate of 13,645 tested. Nassau was recorded with 565 positive cases of 12,003 tested, a 4.7% infection rate on very high testing universes.
The Long Island hospitals, CBS radio reported this afternoon said they had plenty of bed space capacity to handle the new infections (without stating how many beds they had available at this time), and also stated they would not limit elective surgeries. It was not clear whether the hospitals were stocking up on covid treatment supplies. Governor Kathy Hochul Saturday evening issued an State of Emergency Executive Order calling for hospitals to limit elective surgeries to assure adequate space and order stores of hospital supplies,.
In two weeks time, the 1,413 infections yesterday could result in 3,000 new cases by December 9, going by the 1 person infecting at least 2 persons.
Nassau county had 229 infections on November 13. Based on Saturday new positives, Nassau infectees November 13 (229) ) divided into 565, Saturday infections yields a 1 person infects 3 other persons (2.450) meaning Nassau we could see 1,400 infections in Nassau two weeks from now.
Suffolk reported 317 two weeks ago. Divide the 848 infections by 317 and we see that each person infected in Suffolk on Novermber 13 infected 2.68 new persons. Multiply Saturday 848 Suffolk infections by 2.68 and it means, depending on effective treatment and medicine availability, Suffolk could see 2,272 new cases from these 848 new cases in two weeks (the incubation period of disease).
Considering they are now infecting hundreds a day, new cases at this level on Long Island could reach 5,000 new cases a day in two weeks unless Nassau and Suffolk pay attention and throttle down the spread.
Here are the latest county by county numbers, released by Governor Hochul’s office at 7 PM. MID-HUDSON COUNTIES WHERE WESTCHESTER IS LOCATED, HIGHLIGHTED IN BOLD.
|County||Total Positive||New Positive|