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WPCNR COVID 19 MONITOR. From the NY State Covid-19 Workbook. Observations by John F. Bailey. November 28, 2021:

With the Sunday Covid numbers to go, due out tomorrow, it is obvious the Fourth Wave of Covid building is strengthening in breadth and new infections across the 9 Counties and New York City’s five boroughs.

Saturday New York City reported 1,641 cases in the five boroughs.

In the rest of the MidHudson region, Ulster showed 49 cases; Sullivan (36) Putnam (17) The Mid Hudson infection rate was 4.8% of 42, 819 tested. Nassau and Suffolk are spreading the disease alarmingly in this reporter’s opinion, and have been for weeks.

In 13 of the last 18 days, the 9 counties have had more cases of new covid than New York City.

The populations of the 9 counties are spreading the disease at a rapid rate.

Suffolk County had 848 new cases reported of covid positives and a 6.2% infection rate of 13,645 tested. Nassau was recorded with 565 positive cases of 12,003 tested, a 4.7% infection rate on very high testing universes.

The Long Island hospitals, CBS radio reported this afternoon said they had plenty of bed space capacity to handle the new infections (without stating how many beds they had available at this time), and also stated they would not limit elective surgeries. It was not clear whether the hospitals were stocking up on covid treatment supplies. Governor Kathy Hochul Saturday evening issued an State of Emergency Executive Order calling for hospitals to limit elective surgeries to assure adequate space and order stores of hospital supplies,.

In two weeks time, the 1,413 infections yesterday could result in 3,000 new cases by December 9, going by the 1 person infecting at least 2 persons.

Nassau county had 229 infections on November 13. Based on Saturday new positives, Nassau infectees November 13 (229) ) divided into 565, Saturday infections yields a 1 person infects 3 other persons (2.450) meaning Nassau we could see 1,400 infections in Nassau two weeks from now.

Suffolk reported 317 two weeks ago. Divide the 848 infections by 317 and we see that each person infected in Suffolk on Novermber 13 infected 2.68 new persons. Multiply Saturday 848 Suffolk infections by 2.68 and it means, depending on effective treatment and medicine availability, Suffolk could see 2,272 new cases from these 848 new cases in two weeks (the incubation period of disease).

Considering they are now infecting hundreds a day, new cases at this level on Long Island could reach 5,000 new cases a day in two weeks unless Nassau and Suffolk pay attention and throttle down the spread.

Here are the latest county by county numbers, released by Governor Hochul’s office at 7 PM. MID-HUDSON COUNTIES WHERE WESTCHESTER IS LOCATED, HIGHLIGHTED IN BOLD.

County	Total Positive	New Positive
Albany	34,221	105
Allegany	5,929	12
Broome	28,056	74
Cattaraugus	9,898	19
Cayuga	9,653	14
Chautauqua	14,837	40
Chemung	12,740	14
Chenango	5,508	18
Clinton	8,017	37
Columbia	5,664	25
Cortland	6,053	6
Delaware	4,344	24
Dutchess	37,798	65
Erie	123,801	504
Essex	2,964	11
Franklin	5,365	30
Fulton	7,768	29
Genesee	8,556	15
Greene	4,911	20
Hamilton	511	1
Herkimer	8,228	48
Jefferson	11,237	35
Lewis	4,169	12
Livingston	7,132	18
Madison	7,285	26
Monroe	96,981	255
Montgomery	7,110	29
Nassau	225,182	565
Niagara	28,469	91
NYC	1,130,658	1,641
Oneida	32,950	94
Onondaga	59,057	115
Ontario	11,592	40
Orange	61,914	193
Orleans	5,434	20
Oswego	14,047	39
Otsego	5,321	20
Putnam	13,091	17
Rensselaer	17,260	72
Rockland	55,357	85
Saratoga	24,400	139
Schenectady	19,229	75
Schoharie	2,654	17
Schuyler	1,919	5
Seneca	3,200	10
St. Lawrence	12,724	64
Steuben	12,372	57
Suffolk	254,334	848
Sullivan	9,500	36
Tioga	6,297	17
Tompkins	7,359	7
Ulster	18,957	49
Warren	7,219	54
Washington	6,606	44
Wayne	10,115	43
Westchester	147,821	179
Wyoming	5,252	23
Yates	1,974	2