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STEVE ROLANDI’S PREDICTIONS ON THE 2021 OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS
The big race on Tuesday is the Governor’s election in Virginia, which President Biden carried by 10% last fall with a turnout of 4.5 million. Unfortunately for the Democrats, turnout will not be high enough (probably 2.8 million state-wide) in African-American communities and Northern Virginia to enable McAuliffe to win a new term.
He has focused more on national issues, while his opponent has focused on local issues, such as education, teachers’ salaries and school choice. Many voters see this election as a referendum on the Presidency of Joe Biden, who is in his 9th month of this term.
While the Democrats around the country will have a good night, the Virginia results are likely to be a wake-up call for the Democrats, who have two wings battling each other for dominance.
The GOP remains weak in many parts of the country, particularly the Northeast and California.
If Governor Murphy (of New Jersey) prevails, as I expect he will do, he will be the first Democratic governor to win a second term since Brendan Byrne did so in 1977.
The 2021 results are a dress rehearsal for next year’s mid- term election and 2024 as well.
VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION *incumbent
YOUNGKIN (GOP) 49%
McAuliffe (D)* 47%
Other candidates 4%
NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION
MURPHY* (D) 51%
Ciattarelli (R) 44%
Other candidates 5%
CITY OF NEW YORK – MAYOR
ADAMS (D) 63%
Sliva (R/I) 32%
Other candidates 5%
CITY OF NEW YORK – CONTROLLER
LANDER (D) 70%
Carreras (R) 25%
Other candidates 5%
CITY OF NEW YORK – PUBLIC ADVOCATE
WILLIAMS* (D) 68%
Namapiaparapil (R) 28%
Other candidates 4%
WESTCHESTER COUNTY – COUNTY EXEXCUTIVE
LATIMER* (D) 70%
SCULTI (R) 30%
WESTCHESTER COUNTY – COUNTY CLERK
IDONI* (D) 67%
Scott (R) 33%