WPCNR COVID ADVISORY. From the NY State Covid Tracker. August 27, 2021:
The latest covid figures for new Westchester County covid CASES reports 281 persons positive for covid of 7,655 tested Thursday, an infection rate of 3.7%.
The 281 figure was the highest number of positives since April 15,2021 when 291 tested positive.
it also computed the Westchester spread rate to 1 persons infecting 4 based on infections 2 weeks ago on August 12 when 202 persons tested positive for covid.
If you assume all 202 persons that day two weeks ago each met one person then if you divide 202 into the 281 new cases Thursday the Westchester Spread Rate which had been under the 1:1 (one person infects one other person) to 1 person infecting 4 others.
The dilemma in tracking the ups and downs of daily infections is you want to discern a trend to make decisions.
If this 281 figure up 66 cases from Wednesday means more persons started relaxing and socializing two weeks ago vacationing and loosening up their guard (camps ending, persons going out to beaches it was very hot) going out to dinner— this Thursday number could be a warning of lots more infections over the Labor Day Weekend, the start of school and of course the religious holidays of Rosh Hoshanna and Yom Kippur, followed by the opening of schools in Westchester.
If the 281 people two weeks ago infect 4 persons each, this would mean 1,100 new cases from this group spreading the disease in two weeks.