WPCNR CONTINUING COVID REPORT. By John F. Bailey Comment on the NY Covid-19 Tracker and Westchester County Covid Tracker Trends August 4, 2021:
A lesser percentage of Westchesterites were newly infected with Coronavirus Tuesday: 2.2%–139 of 6,448 tests conducted. The number of new infections was 8 less than Tuesday at a much lower infection rate.
This shows another dynamic of a 117 new cases a day spread which Westchester has averaged the last 10 days. As you go up in amount of testing, the infection percentage may go down but, with more persons infected previously, the spread continues at approximately the same rate. As County Executive Latimer said Monday the virus spreads at 7 times the number of infections.
That happens because each new person according to the Johns Hopkins Center modeling of the virus spread 1 new person spreads the disease to 7 people over 10 to 14 days before symptoms of covid appear. The newly covid positive person (who is not aware of it because they are not sick yet) is a carrier to infect others if they do not quarantine and especially if they do not mask.
The last 10 days saw the Third Wave strengthen after infections the week of July 17 through 24 rose significantly above the 1.1% infection rate (which controls and stabilizes virus spread) through Sunday the 24 of July to 1.6% raising infections from 50 a day to 75, 439 infections that week.
Since July 24, beginning the next day, Sunday July 25 through 10 days through yesterday August 3 produced an average 2.4% infection rate among an average 5,000 tested a day in 10 days of testing new persons testing positive. Counting yesterday, the August 3 infections posted today new infections in 10 days have mounted to 1,170 new infections in two weeks of growth.
On Monday, August 2nd, 147 new persons tested positive for the first time the county has had over a thousand new infections in a week since April in the second Wave of Covid.
August 2 was he first time the county has passed the 1,000 infection mark in a week’s worth of tests roughly since April 24 when 150 of 10,000 tested tested positive, when we were on the way down in infections. In the 9 days from April 13 to April 22, 2,389 were found positive, however the infection rates were much lower.
What I as an observer notices is the high spread 3.2% rate on low test numbers. If 3.2% of 4,570 test positive, and 147 get infected as of Monday. What if you tested 10,000 as we were doing in mid-April?
If you take a 3.2% infection rate applied to 10,000 you come up with 320 infections. If the 3.2% goes up to 3.5%, 350, if we hit 4.0% big new case numbers multiply: 400 a day.
This is disturbing. Why? Because 10 days before April 24–when Westchester recorded 150 new cases at a 1.5% infection on 10,000 persons, we experienced a 2.9% infection rate on a test field of 12,000 persons the number infections was 346. This tells you what will happen if this infection rate isn’t dealt with — by masks, new restrictions. It will just keep expanding.
Right now some one in your town, or city in the county has to pay attention. Perhaps the leader of the County or any county. Or just perhaps The state house and the new governor if Governor Cuomo is inpeached, can tear themselves to focus on this Third Wave gaining more robust by the day.
Masks, yes. Vaccine proof for entering restaurants, bars, events. Yes. Vaccinating all teachers in New York City. (Who knew only 60% of NYC teachers were vaccinated? That has to be done otherwise you cannot open the NYC schools if you do your are whistling past the graveyard.
If your school district does not have fully vaccinated staffs, teachers and administrators, your district will see so many infections the first month you will have to shut down. God help the schools in NYC. They have had 5 months to vax the teachers and administrators. It