THE WORLD READS WHITE PLAINS CITIZENETREPORTER — 8,324,077 VISITS IN ONE YEAR

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. By John F. Bailey. August 19, 2021:

Westchester is being careful about Covid, even though weary and ready to get back to normal

Since July 4, when the Westchester infection rate of new cases was less than half a percent, 4,663 new positive covid cases have been diagnosed and the infection rate is now at 3.1% based on the New York State Covid Tracker figures of August 17. Yesterday figures are due out late this afternoon.

 At the  Johns Hopkins spread metric standard that 1 person spreads the disease to 7 people, Westchester infections the last two months have averaged  2.2. infections per new infection, nowhere near 7 PERSONS FOR EVERY PERSON INFECTED.

This responsibility that Westchester residents have shown has helped the county avoid a possible additional 20,000 more victims of covid at this time.

No figures on the actual Westchester infection rate have been released by authorities.

WPCNR analyzed the infections of new covid cases since July 4 when 11 persons tested positive for Covid  through August 17 Tuesday when 234 persons tested positive of 7,664 tested, an infection rate of 3.1%. Going back two weeks to August 3, there were 139 new covid infections reported that day.

 At the average spread rate of 2.2 persons per person infected, multiplied by 139 you come up with 278 infections as an estimate for August 17, which is 44 cases more than the actual 234. Some infections discovered on Tuesday may have been infected sooner since the disease usually shows symptoms within 10 to 14 days.

Go back to August 3 and we have 139 new covid  positives of 6,448 tested, an infection rate of 2.2% not to be confused with my finding of an average 2.2% Westchester Spread Rate I have discovered. Two weeks prior on July 20, 56 persons tested Covid positive of 4,082 tested..

Multiply 2.2 (average Westchester Spread Rate) persons by 56 and you get 123 possible covid infections on August 3 two weeks later when you actually tested and found 139, just a little more. I attribute this to possible more or less people getting infected earlier than the arbitrary 2 week spread date-to-date

Take July 20. If you go back two weeks to  July 6, when only 15 persons were found positive, and you multiply 15 x 2.2 you get 33 infections on July 20, 23 less than the 56. Still there was a faster spread from July 4 due to the mixing and mingling over July 4 weekend, which means more people got infected earlier.

To be sure not every person is getting infected on a strict timetable.

But, the ability of residents of Westchester who have covid to not spread the disease once they are infected is very positive and contributes to Westchester, though still experiencing a third wave crest or ebb or surge,( we do not know yet), is a tribute to intelligence and concern.

In the last five days,  there is no evidence the third Covid wave in Westchester is not surging.

Friday, the 13^th: 187  new infections in  7,630 tests.  This number is right on the 2.2% Westchester Average Spread rate of 2.2. On July 23, two weeks prior 85 were found positive and 2.2  persons times 85 is 86. Right on the Average Infection Rate.

Saturday, the 14^th, 208 persons tested for covid of 7,241 (infection rate 2.9%). Two weeks prior on July 31 , 137 tested positive, and the 2.2 average overestimates  predicting 301 infections  93 over short of the actual  208  July 31 figure. The actual spread rate was 1.5 persons per person infected. I take this to mean that Westchester residents are being more careful with social distancing as figures of positive go consistently  closer to the 200 mark.

Sunday the 15^th, Westchester reported 146 new cases( a 2.9% infection rate).  On August 1, we had 96 infections. Apply the 2.2 infection rate times 96 , you get 211  for Sunday the 15^th. The Spread rate from August first declined again to 1.5% per infection on August 1^st

The 16^th, of August, (Monday) another 189 infections of 4,968 tested.  The 2.2 average produces 323 for Monday, based on August 2,  but over actual infections by 134. The actual person to person spread from the infections of Monday August 2^nd was  1.3% of the infections on August 2.

What do we make of this decline in persons infected with the disease spreading? Better behavior perhaps? More caution? More persons vaccinating?

Now this is a trend noticed by simply applying earlier infections and the effect of those infections over two weeks. The spread rate based on infections two weeks prior is on the balance dropping in the last 7 days below the 2.2 average Spread Rate.

August 10 –New infection spread rate from persons infected 2 weeks prior — 2.6 per person

August 11– 1.76

August 12—1.4

August 13 —1.2

August 14—-1.5

August 15—-1.5

August 16—1.3

August 17–1.7

“GOOD MORNING DENNIS AND TONNY FROM WHITE PLAINS NY USA WHERE IT’S 72 CLOUDY WPCNR DEGREES, IT’S ALSO 3 WEEKS BEFORE SCHOOL STARTS.

I TALKED WITH THE SCHOOL DISTRICT YESTERDAY TO SEE WHERE THEY WERE ON OPENING. I WAS INFORMED BY THE DISTRICT BUT AT THE END OF LAST WEEK THE STATE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT COMMISSIONER BETSY ROSA ANNOUNCED A GUIDE TO REOPENING THE STATE’S SCHOOLS FOLLOWING STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND CDC GUIDELINES, SUPERINTENDENTS WERE NOTIFIED OF THIS GUIDE LAST THURSDAY, THE 12^TH.

ROSA ALSO ANNOUNCED ON THE SED WEBSITE  IN A LETTER TO SUPERINTENDENTS THAT THE STATE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT WOULD SET GUIDELINES FOR SCHOOLS BECAUSE THE NY DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH ANNOUNCED IT WOULD NOT.

 WELL I READ THIS 21-PAGE REPORT AND IT COVERS VACCINE POLICY, MASKING POLICY, SOCIAL DISTANCING RECOMMENDATIONS AND STRATEGIES, AND SPORTS AND PERFORMING PROGRAMS.

THE KEY TAKEAWAY I GET AFTER READING THIS IS THAT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN WESTCHESTER AND WHITE PLAINS AND NEW ROCHELLE ARE ON THEIR OWN.

WHY?

BECAUSE THE “GUIDELINE” BOOKLET ISSUED DOES NOT SAY SCHOOLS HAVE TO DO ANYTHING RECOMMENDED. THEY ARE “GUIDELINES.”

I ASKED THE STATE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT PRESS OFFICE IF HARD FAST MUST DO RULES WILL BE ISSUED OR WHETHER SCHOOLS WERE ON THEIR OWN. THEY SAID THEY WOULD GET BACK TO ME. THE OTHER BIGGER QUESTION IS WHETHER EACH SCHOOL DISTRICT HAS TO HAVE THE SED APPROVE THEIR POLICIES ON REOPENING.

 AT THIS POINT IN WHITE PLAINS, THE SCHOOL DISTRICT HAS NOT DECIDED ON A VACCINE POLICY THE CLERK TO THE SCHOOL BOARD TOLD ME. WHEN THE DISTRICT REOPENED FULL TIME ATTENDANCE IN MAY ALL TEACHERS AND STAFF HAD TO BE VACCINATED AND THERE WAS SOCIAL DISTANCING AND MASKING REQUIRED.

AT THIS POINT THE BIG DECISION EVERY DISTRICT HAS TO CONSIDER IS VACCINATING ALL STUDENTS ELIGIBLE TO RECEIVE THE VACCINE. IT IS GETTING LATE FOR THIS DECISION.

THE COUNTY SAID THEY WOULD HELP IN YESTERDAY’S BRIEFING WITH COUNTY OPERATIONS DIRECTOR JOAN MCDONALD ANNOUNCING THE COUNTY WOULD BRING VACCINATIONS TO ANY SCHOOL OR DISTRICT THAT WANTED THIS SERVICE FOR THE NEXT THREE WEEKS.

THE SHOTS WOULD INCLUDE THE STANDARD IMMUNIZATIONS AND ALSO THE COVID SHOT OR SHOTS FOR ELIGIBLE STUDENTS PRESUMABLY.

IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE NOT TO DO THAT.

DR. JOSEPH RICCA THE WHITE PLAINS SUPERINTENDENT, WILL ADDRESS THE DISTRICT ON FACEBOOK AT 12 NOON AUGUST 27 TO TELL HOW SCHOOL WILL OPEN IN WHITE PLAINS AND HE WILL HAVE A QUESTION AND ANSWER ZOOM ON SEPTEMBER 1

COVID IS NOT SLOWING DOWN IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY

THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE COUNTY INFECTION RATE CONTINUED AT SUPER SPREADER RATES OF 2.8% THURSDAY, 2.4% FRIDAY AND 2.9% ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

742 NEW CASES OF COVID IN THE COUNTY WERE REPORTED ON THOSE 4 DAYS. 185 A DAY AVERAGE.

IN 14 DAYS AT THE SPREAD RATE FORMULA THOSE 742 PERSONS WITH COVID COULD INFECT 5,000 OTHER PERSONS BY AUGUST 31. THE AVERAGE INFECTIONS PER DAY RIGHT NOW CONTINUES TO PUSH IN THE VICINITY OF 200 NEW INFECTIONS A DAY.

ASSEMBLYMAN TOM ABINANTI OF GREENBURGH ADVISED THE STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH HAS ORDERED HOSPITALS AND LONG TERM CARE FACILITIES TO VACCINATE ALL WORKERS WHO HAVE NOT BEEN VACCINATED.

IN FACT 166,000 HAVE NOT BEEN VACCINATED. IN NURSING HOMES 34% OR 45,000 WORKERS HAVE NOT BEEN VACCINATED. I WAS UNDER THE MISTAKEN IMPRESSION THAT HOSPITALS HAD VACCINATED ALL WORKERS AND TOOK 5 WEEKS TO DO THAT LAST DEC AND EARLY JANUARY. WHO KNEW? I DON’T UNDERSTAND THAT. HOW COULD THEY NOT? HOW COULD LONG TERM CARE FACILITIES NOT? VACCINES HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE FOR 8 MONTHS. IT IS AN HONOR TO REPORT FOR WVOX, SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.”