330 NEW CASES A DAY MEANS 4,620 NEW WESTCHESTER CASES WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS

WPCNR COVID 19 OBSERVER. From the NYS COVID-19 TRACKER COMMENTS BY WPCNR’S JOHN BAILEY December 4, 3:40 PM EST:

The state covid tracker caught UP with Thursday’s new covid cases this afternoon, POSTING Westchester County with 322 new cases Thursday (down from 359 Wednesday).

On Thursday, Westchester’s 322 new cases of covid represented a 3.7% postivity rate on 8,676 tested. This is the start, it appears, of growing compounding of new infections culminating the week before Christmas, based on how many persons are spreading Covid to the uninfected:

The 322 cases Thursday divided by the 151 cases two weeks ago (November 18) indicates the virus is spread by every newly positive covid tester to two other persons for every new person covid positive within an approximate 2 week period.

By December 16 those 322 new cases may infect 644 new persons.

At 300 new cases a day now for three straight days the most new cases a day since last April 15, Westchester County must drive this down at once. It also demands heavier testing. And not just testing people thinking they have symptoms. Here’s why:

If the three day rise starting November 30 does not drop or worse sustains its rate of infection — 7 days of 300 infections a day through this weekend could bring 4,200 new infections the week before Christmas (Dec. 16-25).

Subsequent new infections discovered that week of December 16-25 adding to the week between Christmas and New Years infections may create an tsunami of infections in January. If most new infections are unvaccinated, how many will require hospitalizations?

If just 25% of those before Christmas projections (4,620) need hospitalization over Christmas, that is 1155 hospital beds.

If half those 4,620 infections most probably due to that they are not vaccinated need hospitalization that is 2,100 pushing up on Westchester County available hospital beds (2,700). Are the medications effective enough to keep hospitalizations of unvaccinated victims of covid, down low at less than 100 a week? That’s the gamble.

I just reread that last paragraph — that is quite a bet the county and the Mid-Hudson region is making.

Nassau and Suffolk have already bet the house.

At close to 2,000 infections a day now they are in serious bed trouble already and don’t know it. They don’t know it. How can they not know it?

The bet is that unvaccinated cases will not get sick enough to be hospitalized on a high level. This is a reasonable assumption given now Westchester only has 52 hospitalizations last week. It was also stated in this week’s covid breifing by the County Executive George Latimer that 2/3 of new cases are unvaccinated.

The county is confident at the present rate of hospitalizations (52 last week), that they have enough capacity. But that was last week.

This sudden outbreak of almost double infections with the highly social travel Thanksgiving 7-day effect, must be watched with an action plan if the 300 a day trend continues in Westchester and the 6 other counties in the region have no new hospital capacity to match Westchester.

If Westchester Medical Center is expected to handle overflow of patient needs in Rockland, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange,Putnam and Sullivan counties they may be caught flat-footed and understaffed. As the last 7 days showed the spread can rise into a tsunami on you due to human frailty, overconfidence, the need to be together and no-vaccinationees by Christmas.

It appears the Thanksgiving weekend has unleashed a new surge of the fourth wave in 7 days! The doubling of rise in infections started with the last week in September (the legacy of Labor Day Weekend)

The number of infections jumped November 30 to 311. December 1 they went up to 359. December 2, 322..

We are now just 7 days after the holiday travel and Thanksgiving holidays started.

Infections the last three days through Thursday December 2 are 311,359 and 322., an average: 330. If that 330 does not decline sharply and continues, 2 new persons would per every 1 newly testing positive, could produce approximately 4,620 infections the week before Christmas.

The entire 7-county MidHudson region posts including covid-overwhelmed Nassau and Suffolk County had 2,493 new cases of covid down 748 from Wednesday’s 3,137.( down 25%).

New York City showed 2,265 new cases, with Brooklyn and Queens (adjacent Nassau and Suffolk County) having 713 and 598 separately with Nassau and Suffolk with 688 new cases and 830 new cases continuing on fire for the second straight day.

Nassau had 856 cases Wesnesday, and 680 on Thursday. Suffolk County dipped to 830 new cases Thursday, down from 1,103 on Wednesday.

Nassau and Suffolk continue to be the problem for the region spreading cases west into Queens and Brooklyn, it would appear.

The 10 COUNTIES ENCIRCLING NYC HAVE 2,493 NEW COVID CASES, 265 MORE THAN NYC’S 2,265. FOR 10 DAYSTHE 10 SUBURBAN COUNTIES HAVE LEAD ALL NEW YORK CITY CASES- THE 10 OUTSIDE NYC HAD MOST CASES FOR 17 OF 22 DAYS (3 WEEKS)

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Governor Hochul on Omicron Friday

 Guidance on Limiting Non-Essential and Non-Urgent Procedures at Certain Hospitals Experiencing Limited Capacity

159,560 Vaccine Doses Administered Over Last 24 Hours

49 COVID-19 Deaths Statewide Yesterday

Governor Kathy Hochul Fridday updated New Yorkers on the state’s progress combating COVID-19.

“New York State has confirmed five cases of the omicron variant. Let me be clear: this is not cause for alarm, we knew this variant was coming and we expect to see more cases,” Governor Hochul said. “I want to remind all New Yorkers to use the tools they have at their disposal to keep themselves and their communities safe: get your vaccine, get your booster, and wear your mask. We will get through this.”

The Governor and the Department of Health today also released written guidance on Executive Order No. 11, which enables the Department to protect access to critical health care services by limiting non-essential, non-urgent procedures at certain hospitals currently experiencing limited capacity. While this order is effective today, determinations will be issued to facilities by December 6 to apply to procedures scheduled to occur on or after December 9.

Editor’s Note: On Thursday, Westchester County suffered 359 new covid infections, on December 1, up from 311 on Tuesday November 30. The covid tracker still is lagging 48 hours behind reporting daily results. It marked the 16th day in the last 21 days the Mid-Hudson Region and Long Island had more new covid cases than New York City. Long Island reported 1,958 new infections of the 3,137 infections in Mid-Hudson Region and Long Island combined. Westchester r has an infection rate of 3% testing positive a long range possibility of the 359 cases December 1st infecting 622 new persons in two weeks.

Today’s data is summarized briefly below:


· Test Results Reported – 230,961

· Total Positive – 11,242
· Percent Positive – 4.87%

· 7-Day Average Percent Positive – 4.85%
· Patient Hospitalization – 3,107 (+14)
· Patients Newly Admitted – 437
· Patients in ICU – 595 (+4)
· Patients in ICU with Intubation – 309 (-5)
· Total Discharges – 216,609 (+391)
· New deaths reported by healthcare facilities through HERDS – 49
· Total deaths reported by healthcare facilities through HERDS – 46,673

The Health Electronic Response Data System is a NYS DOH data source that collects confirmed daily death data as reported by hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities only.


· Total deaths reported to and compiled by the CDC – 60,354


This daily COVID-19 provisional death certificate data reported by NYS DOH and NYC to the CDC includes those who died in any location, including hospitals, nursing homes, adult care facilities, at home, in hospice and other settings.


· Total vaccine doses administered – 30,164,634
· Total vaccine doses administered over past 24 hours – 159,560
· Total vaccine doses administered over past 7 days – 668,526
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with at least one vaccine dose – 86.1%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with completed vaccine series – 78.5%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with at least one vaccine dose (CDC) – 91.2%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with completed vaccine series (CDC) – 80.9%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with at least one vaccine dose – 74.5%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with completed vaccine series – 66.8%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with at least one vaccine dose (CDC) – 78.6%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with completed vaccine series (CDC) – 68.7%

Each region’s 7-day average of cases per 100K population is as follows:

RegionTuesday, November 30, 2021Wednesday, December 1, 2021Thursday, December 2, 2021
Capital Region52.9655.7460.31
Central New York45.5249.6756.08
Finger Lakes58.9661.5366.75
Long Island38.1641.6347.44
Mid-Hudson27.7529.8733.17
Mohawk Valley61.0864.1770.77
New York City17.4118.6620.42
North Country59.0662.5368.40
Southern Tier53.3056.7163.26
Western New York67.5468.8873.06
Statewide33.9836.1139.73

Each region’s 7-day average percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:

RegionTuesday, November 30, 2021Wednesday, December 1, 2021Thursday, December 2, 2021
Capital Region8.13%8.15%8.17%
Central New York7.54%8.12%8.41%
Finger Lakes10.46%10.69%10.89%
Long Island5.17%5.50%5.83%
Mid-Hudson3.73%3.98%4.26%
Mohawk Valley9.20%8.90%9.31%
New York City1.94%2.10%2.23%
North Country9.54%9.36%9.67%
Southern Tier6.30%6.49%6.77%
Western New York10.60%10.92%11.32%
Statewide4.37%4.61%4.85%


Each New York City borough’s 7-day average percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:

Borough in NYCTuesday, November 30, 2021Wednesday, December 1, 2021Thursday, December 2, 2021
Bronx1.89%2.02%2.15%
Kings1.70%1.89%1.97%
New York1.46%1.61%1.67%
Queens2.59%2.70%2.94%
Richmond3.33%3.45%3.71%


Yesterday, 11,242 New Yorkers tested positive for COVID-19 in New York State, bringing the total to 2,734,874. A geographic breakdown is as follows:

CountyTotal PositiveNew Positive 
Albany34,983219 
Allegany6,14666 
Broome28,730181 
Cattaraugus10,25478 
Cayuga9,90252 
Chautauqua15,410163 
Chemung13,09591 
Chenango5,67951 
Clinton8,27961 
Columbia5,84260 
Cortland6,16430 
Delaware4,57671 
Dutchess38,356138 
Erie127,410799 
Essex3,05924 
Franklin5,57854 
Fulton7,99758 
Genesee8,86974 
Greene5,05857 
Hamilton5256 
Herkimer8,55780 
Jefferson11,65790 
Lewis4,29838 
Livingston7,40275 
Madison7,56359 
Monroe99,510574 
Montgomery7,35366 
Nassau228,510856 
Niagara29,420202 
NYC1,139,9422,389 
Oneida33,796190 
Onondaga60,557443 
Ontario11,974108 
Orange62,994317 
Orleans5,67659 
Oswego14,513104 
Otsego5,53367 
Putnam13,29041 
Rensselaer17,811178 
Rockland55,844114 
Saratoga25,383216 
Schenectady19,693124 
Schoharie2,79448 
Schuyler1,98912 
Seneca3,36049 
St. Lawrence13,212140 
Steuben12,858145 
Suffolk258,5101,102 
Sullivan9,83074 
Tioga6,51762 
Tompkins7,55756 
Ulster19,396136 
Warren7,55971 
Washington6,91372 
Wayne10,563115 
Westchester149,124359 
Wyoming5,46360 
Yates2,04118 


Yesterday, 49 New Yorkers died due to COVID-19, bringing the total compiled through HERDS to 46,673. A geographic breakdown is as follows, by county of residence:

New Deaths by 
County of Residence 
Albany1
Broome1
Cattaraugus1
Cayuga1
Erie10
Genesee1
Herkimer2
Kings3
Montgomery1
Niagara2
Oneida1
Onondaga4
Ontario2
Orange1
Oswego3
Queens4
Rensselaer2
Richmond1
Schenectady2
Seneca1
St. Lawrence2
Suffolk1
Tioga1
Westchester1

All New York State mass vaccination sites are open to eligible New Yorkers aged 12 years and older for walk-in vaccination on a first-come, first-serve basis, with 10 sites open to eligible New Yorkers aged 5 and older. People who would prefer to schedule an appointment at a state-run mass vaccination site can do so on the Am I Eligible App or by calling 1-833-NYS-4-VAX. People may also contact their local health department, pharmacy, doctor or hospital to schedule appointments where vaccines are available, or visit vaccines.gov to find information on vaccine appointments near them.

New Yorkers looking to schedule vaccine appointments for 5-11-year-old children are encouraged to contact their child’s pediatrician, family physician, county health departments, Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs), rural health centers, or pharmacies that may be administering the vaccine for this age group. Parents and guardians can visit vaccines.gov, text their ZIP code to 438829, or call 1-800-232-0233 to find nearby locations. Make sure that the provider offers the Pfizer-BioNTechCOVID-19 vaccine, as the other COVID-19 vaccines are not yet authorized for this age group.

Visit our website for parents and guardians for new information, frequently asked questions and answers, and resources specifically designed for parents and guardians of this age group.

Yesterday, 28,274 New Yorkers received their first vaccine dose, and 27,808 completed their vaccine series. A geographic breakdown of New Yorkers who have been vaccinated by region is as follows:

 People with at least one vaccine dosePeople with complete vaccine series  
RegionCumulative
Total
Increase over past 24 hoursCumulative
Total
Increase over past 24 hours  
Capital Region802,7211,479721,8821,701  
Central New York617,652766563,848921  
Finger Lakes818,0661,421747,1651,590  
Long Island2,018,3563,6311,790,2343,441  
Mid-Hudson1,572,7813,0861,373,5992,719  
Mohawk Valley310,315444285,144570  
New York City7,237,24915,3036,435,25314,370  
North Country288,325402257,093354  
Southern Tier415,772427378,727545  
Western New York898,5941,315812,3881,597  
Statewide14,979,83128,27413,365,33327,808  

The COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker Dashboard is available to update New Yorkers on the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine. The New York State Department of Health requires vaccinating facilities to report all COVID-19 vaccine administration data within 24 hours; the vaccine administration data on the dashboard is updated daily to reflect the most up-to-date metrics in the state’s vaccination effort. New York State Department of Health-reported data from NYSIIS and CIR differs slightly from federally-reported data, which is inclusive of federally-administered doses and other minor differences. Both numbers are included in the release above.


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WHITE PLAINS WEEK TONIGHT 7:30 PM ON WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG FOR BEST VIDEO AND AUDIO FEED ANYTIME OR FIOS CH 45 (COUNTYWIDE) OR OPTIMUM CH 76 IN WHITE PLAINS

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WESTCHESTER NEW COVID CASES SURGE 132 CASES 3 DAYS AFTER THANKSGIVING WEEK CONCLUDES UP 30%. 311 NEW WESTCHESTER COVID POSITIVE DEC 1. TEN COUNTIES ‘ROUND NYC HIT 3,000 NEW INFECTIONS IN ONE DAY, 643 MORE THAN NYC COMBINED. CITY UP TOO. LONG ISLAND JUST SHY OF 2,000 CASES IN A DAY–UP 84% in 1 DAY. NY COVID TRACKER 48 HOURS BEHIND

WPCNR COVID MONITOR. From the NY State Covid Tracker. Observations by John F. Bailey. December 2, 2021:

THE 4-DAY Thanksgiving holiday began a new surge of covid cases that appeared Tuesday November 30.

Today Thursday, the state Covid tracker routinely has the results of new cases the previous day. They are currently 48 hours behind in reporting., which this reporter never recalls happening before. Hopefully this will be corrected by Friday which should report Wednesday and Thursday results to see whether this 4-day holiday has caused a surge

The confluence of Thanksgiving and this holiday week of celebration, office parties and travel may be starting a trend of new cases in the county as it did last year at this time.

Last week, Westchester at this time in the Tuesday, November 23 through Tuesday November 30 averaged 164 new positive covid cases a day.

Tuesday, November 30, 9,872 persons were tested and 3.2% tested positive 311, 164 more than Monday when Westchester had 179, acompared to last week’s average 2.7% a day positive rate. The average tests daily last week were 6,078 a day for 9 days.

The 7 MidHudson region counties including Westchester totaled 1,079 Tuesday, compared to 638 on Monday, a 69% increase in 24 hours.

The numbers that chill me are the health disaster unfolding in Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island.

The two counties on Long Island had 1,969 positive cases virtually DOUBLE the cases the counties Monday. Nassau and Suffolk Counties reported 1,068 case Monday. That is 85% new positives in 24 hours. The hospitals on Long Island, according to WCBS radio Sunday announced they had no capacity problems and would not limit elective surgeries as Governor Hochul’s Emergency Executive Order said.

The 9 counties now have lead New York City in new cases for 15 of the last 20 days.

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