WPCNR COVID MONITOR. From NY Covid Tracker. Observations by John F. Bailey. November 30, 2021:
There is no doubt that the Fourth Wave of Covid misery is gaining momentum.
In Thanksgiving week between Sunday November 21 and Saturday, November 27, 1,086 Westchester residents tested positive for covid out of 45,729 tested, a positive infection rate of 2.4%
That percentage of spread is 2,000 persons less than the expected number of increased infections from two weeks ago ended November 13.
Those 751 persons tested positive in 50,248 tests ended November 13–1 person infected 5 persons during that week, when the average infection rate was 1.5. At the end of Saturday, November 27, 14 days later those 751 infections from November 13 had resulted in 1,086 new cases, indicating by dividing 1,086 by 751 an infection rate of 1 new infected person 2 weeks spreading the disease to 5 persons (1:446 additional infections.)
If you multiply 5 persons by 751, you get over 3,755 new infections. The new persons testing positive two weeks ago produced 1,086 new infections. This is solid confidence the vaccinations are working and limiting the spread.
However in two weeks, the 1086 infections this week if we continue at the 1 person infects 5 spread rate (based on how many new infections resulted from the infected two weeks), or if it increases (given that we have not seen all the infections of two weeks ago impact due to dates when they test positive), you would have possibly 3,000 infections last week if the vaccination effectiveness number of persons vaccinated and Under-12s vaccinated continues on the upswing it will definitely slow the the spread from one new infection to the other because less people will be infected.
The positive lower number of infections than expected, 1086, rather than 3,000 as the spread rate of two weeks ago would tell us, indicates Westchester is vaccinating at a rate that is limiting infections or those unvaccinated are being more careful.
Nevertheless, cases continue to multiply each week.
10 weeks ago at the end of the week of September 26, Westchester reported 695 cases. As of the week ended November 13, Saturday we had 751 new cases, a minor increase. As of November 20 8 weeks later, Westchester went back over 1,000 cases a week at 1,108 and on November 27 the county is again in at 1,086 cases.
The last time we were at 1,000 cases was the week of September 12 to 18 (2 weeks after Labor Day).
On Sunday, November 28, the increase in new positives started the new week with 167 testing positive of 3,995, a 4.2% infection rate, but this was a very small test quantity. Westchester is averaging 155 new infections a day last week, despite the lower number of expected infections.
Governor Hochul also reinstated statewide masking indoors which may, if observed and enforced, tamp down the surge back over 1,000 infections a week in Westchester County. The entire Mid-Hudson Region including Westchester is seeing more infections paticularly in all the counties surrounding Westchester, but Westchester leads all 7 counties in infections the latest numbers FOR THE DAY OF Sunday November 28:
MIDHUDSON REGION NOVEMBER 28 SUNDAY INFECTIONS
WESTCHESTER: 167 INFECTIONS IN 3,995 tests 4.2 Infection Rate
ORANGE 128 INFECTIONS IN 1,735 TESTS, 7.4%
DUTCHESS 77 INFECTIONS IN 1,243 TESTS 6.2%
ULSTER 51 INFECTIONS IN 754 TESTS 6.8%
ROCKLAND 48 INFECTIONS IN 974 TESTS 4.9%
SULLIVAN – 41 INFECTIONS IN 357 TESTS 11.5%
TOTAL MID-HUDSON INFECTIONS: 543
The counties surrounding New York City, including Nassau and Suffolk Counties have exceeded New York City infections for 14 of the last 19 days, with Nassau and Suffolk County averaging over 1,200 cases a day, DOUBLE the infections of all seven counties in the Mid-Hudson region.
WPCNR GOVERNOR’S CORONA VIRUS REPORT. From Governor Hochul’s Press Office. November 30, 2021:
“With the arrival of winter when more people are traveling and gathering indoors, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, we are reminded that we cannot let our guard down in our fight to stop the spread of COVID-19,” Governor Hochul said. “We are not defenseless, vaccinations and testing are the best tools we have in preventing further spread of the virus and its variants. If you have yet to get your vaccine, go out and do so as soon as you can and if you’re due for your booster, doses are readily available across the state. Wear a mask, wash your hands, and stay safe as we head into the winter season.”
Monday’s data is summarized briefly below:
· Test Results Reported – 99,430
· Total Positive – 5,277
· Percent Positive – 5.31%
· 7-Day Average Percent Positive – 4.12%
· Patient Hospitalization – 2,829 (+73)
· Patients Newly Admitted – 335
· Patients in ICU – 556 (+18)
· Patients in ICU with Intubation – 304 (+6)
· Total Discharges – 215,237 (+237)
· New deaths reported by healthcare facilities through HERDS – 41
· Total deaths reported by healthcare facilities through HERDS – 46,484
The Health Electronic Response Data System is a NYS DOH data source that collects confirmed daily death data as reported by hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities only.
· Total deaths reported to and compiled by the CDC – 59,168
This daily COVID-19 provisional death certificate data reported by NYS DOH and NYC to the CDC includes those who died in any location, including hospitals, nursing homes, adult care facilities, at home, in hospice and other settings.
· Total vaccine doses administered – 29,683,176
· Total vaccine doses administered over past 24 hours – 56,924
· Total vaccine doses administered over past 7 days – 533,203
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with at least one vaccine dose – 85.8%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with completed vaccine series – 78.3%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with at least one vaccine dose (CDC) – 90.3%
· Percent of New Yorkers ages 18 and older with completed vaccine series (CDC) – 80.5%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with at least one vaccine dose – 74.1%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with completed vaccine series – 66.4%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with at least one vaccine dose (CDC) – 77.5%
· Percent of all New Yorkers with completed vaccine series (CDC) – 68.2%
Each region’s 7-day average of cases per 100K population is as follows:
| Region | Friday, November 26, 2021 | Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Sunday, November 28, 2021 |
| Capital Region | 51.37 | 50.46 | 49.60 |
| Central New York | 45.74 | 40.97 | 40.84 |
| Finger Lakes | 59.60 | 54.88 | 54.27 |
| Long Island | 31.21 | 33.31 | 34.30 |
| Mid-Hudson | 23.48 | 23.99 | 24.38 |
| Mohawk Valley | 59.34 | 56.55 | 56.40 |
| New York City | 16.01 | 16.48 | 16.43 |
| North Country | 53.53 | 52.71 | 53.53 |
| Southern Tier | 52.76 | 47.82 | 48.38 |
| Western New York | 72.51 | 68.15 | 65.25 |
| Statewide | 32.00 | 31.48 | 31.39 |
Each region’s 7-day average percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:
| Region | Friday, November 26, 2021 | Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Sunday, November 28, 2021 |
| Capital Region | 7.08% | 7.62% | 7.75% |
| Central New York | 6.90% | 6.68% | 6.84% |
| Finger Lakes | 9.41% | 9.61% | 9.62% |
| Long Island | 4.43% | 4.62% | 4.78% |
| Mid-Hudson | 3.30% | 3.39% | 3.51% |
| Mohawk Valley | 9.25% | 9.30% | 9.51% |
| New York City | 1.69% | 1.81% | 1.85% |
| North Country | 8.33% | 8.92% | 9.08% |
| Southern Tier | 5.39% | 5.81% | 5.92% |
| Western New York | 10.15% | 10.30% | 10.24% |
| Statewide | 3.95% | 4.05% | 4.12% |
Each New York City borough’s 7-day average percentage of positive test results reported over the last three days is as follows:
| Borough in NYC | Friday, November 26, 2021 | Saturday, November 27, 2021 | Sunday, November 28, 2021 |
| Bronx | 1.60% | 1.73% | 1.82% |
| Kings | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.70% |
| New York | 1.30% | 1.34% | 1.37% |
| Queens | 2.14% | 2.34% | 2.40% |
| Richmond | 2.74% | 2.98% | 3.02% |
Yesterday, 5,277 New Yorkers tested positive for COVID-19 in New York State, bringing the total to 2,696,277. A geographic breakdown is as follows:
| County | Total Positive | New Positive | |
| Albany | 34,293 | 72 | |
| Allegany | 5,951 | 22 | |
| Broome | 28,142 | 86 | |
| Cattaraugus | 9,932 | 34 | |
| Cayuga | 9,680 | 27 | |
| Chautauqua | 14,898 | 61 | |
| Chemung | 12,781 | 41 | |
| Chenango | 5,527 | 19 | |
| Clinton | 8,063 | 46 | |
| Columbia | 5,681 | 17 | |
| Cortland | 6,073 | 20 | |
| Delaware | 4,366 | 22 | |
| Dutchess | 37,875 | 77 | |
| Erie | 124,141 | 340 | |
| Essex | 2,975 | 11 | |
| Franklin | 5,386 | 21 | |
| Fulton | 7,805 | 37 | |
| Genesee | 8,576 | 20 | |
| Greene | 4,917 | 6 | |
| Hamilton | 512 | 1 | |
| Herkimer | 8,273 | 45 | |
| Jefferson | 11,301 | 64 | |
| Lewis | 4,175 | 6 | |
| Livingston | 7,172 | 40 | |
| Madison | 7,321 | 36 | |
| Monroe | 97,295 | 314 | |
| Montgomery | 7,159 | 49 | |
| Nassau | 225,634 | 452 | |
| Niagara | 28,560 | 91 | |
| NYC | 1,131,941 | 1,283 | |
| Oneida | 33,056 | 106 | |
| Onondaga | 59,188 | 131 | |
| Ontario | 11,631 | 39 | |
| Orange | 62,042 | 128 | |
| Orleans | 5,457 | 23 | |
| Oswego | 14,083 | 36 | |
| Otsego | 5,342 | 21 | |
| Putnam | 13,122 | 31 | |
| Rensselaer | 17,336 | 76 | |
| Rockland | 55,405 | 48 | |
| Saratoga | 24,504 | 104 | |
| Schenectady | 19,284 | 55 | |
| Schoharie | 2,658 | 4 | |
| Schuyler | 1,923 | 4 | |
| Seneca | 3,223 | 23 | |
| St. Lawrence | 12,754 | 30 | |
| Steuben | 12,418 | 46 | |
| Suffolk | 254,886 | 552 | |
| Sullivan | 9,541 | 41 | |
| Tioga | 6,325 | 28 | |
| Tompkins | 7,372 | 13 | |
| Ulster | 19,008 | 51 | |
| Warren | 7,255 | 36 | |
| Washington | 6,643 | 37 | |
| Wayne | 10,172 | 57 | |
| Westchester | 147,988 | 167 | |
| Wyoming | 5,278 | 26 | |
| Yates | 1,978 | 4 |
Yesterday, 41 New Yorkers died due to COVID-19, bringing the total compiled through HERDS to 46,484. A geographic breakdown is as follows, by county of residence:
| New Deaths by County of Residence | |
| Albany | 1 |
| Allegany | 2 |
| Broome | 1 |
| Chautauqua | 1 |
| Clinton | 1 |
| Dutchess | 2 |
| Erie | 6 |
| Fulton | 4 |
| Kings | 3 |
| Manhattan | 1 |
| Monroe | 3 |
| Nassau | 2 |
| Niagara | 1 |
| Oneida | 2 |
| Onondaga | 1 |
| Otsego | 1 |
| Queens | 2 |
| Saratoga | 1 |
| Steuben | 1 |
| Suffolk | 1 |
| Ulster | 1 |
| Washington | 1 |
| Wyoming | 1 |
| Yates | 1 |
All New York State mass vaccination sites are open to eligible New Yorkers aged 12 years and older for walk-in vaccination on a first-come, first-serve basis, with 10 sites open to eligible New Yorkers aged 5 and older. People who would prefer to schedule an appointment at a state-run mass vaccination site can do so on the Am I Eligible App or by calling 1-833-NYS-4-VAX. People may also contact their local health department, pharmacy, doctor or hospital to schedule appointments where vaccines are available, or visit vaccines.gov to find information on vaccine appointments near them.
New Yorkers looking to schedule vaccine appointments for 5-11-year-old children are encouraged to contact their child’s pediatrician, family physician, county health departments, Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs), rural health centers, or pharmacies that may be administering the vaccine for this age group. Parents and guardians can visit vaccines.gov, text their ZIP code to 438829, or call 1-800-232-0233 to find nearby locations. Make sure that the provider offers the Pfizer-BioNTechCOVID-19 vaccine, as the other COVID-19 vaccines are not yet authorized for this age group.
Visit our website for parents and guardians for new information, frequently asked questions and answers, and resources specifically designed for parents and guardians of this age group.
Yesterday, 10,803 New Yorkers received their first vaccine dose, and 11,346 completed their vaccine series. A geographic breakdown of New Yorkers who have been vaccinated by region is as follows:
| People with at least one vaccine dose | People with complete vaccine series | |||||
| Region | Cumulative Total | Increase over past 24 hours | Cumulative Total | Increase over past 24 hours | ||
| Capital Region | 798,899 | 556 | 717,343 | 438 | ||
| Central New York | 615,201 | 280 | 561,387 | 196 | ||
| Finger Lakes | 813,709 | 350 | 742,069 | 703 | ||
| Long Island | 2,008,272 | 1,247 | 1,779,616 | 1,589 | ||
| Mid-Hudson | 1,562,174 | 931 | 1,364,281 | 764 | ||
| Mohawk Valley | 308,856 | 146 | 283,557 | 140 | ||
| New York City | 7,191,846 | 6,571 | 6,390,337 | 6,464 | ||
| North Country | 286,797 | 105 | 255,866 | 82 | ||
| Southern Tier | 414,294 | 140 | 375,750 | 183 | ||
| Western New York | 893,545 | 477 | 806,559 | 787 | ||
| Statewide | 14,893,593 | 10,803 | 13,276,765 | 11,346 |
WPCNR COVID 19 MONITOR. From the NY State Covid-19 Workbook. Observations by John F. Bailey. November 28, 2021:
With the Sunday Covid numbers to go, due out tomorrow, it is obvious the Fourth Wave of Covid building is strengthening in breadth and new infections across the 9 Counties and New York City’s five boroughs.
Saturday New York City reported 1,641 cases in the five boroughs.
In the rest of the MidHudson region, Ulster showed 49 cases; Sullivan (36) Putnam (17) The Mid Hudson infection rate was 4.8% of 42, 819 tested. Nassau and Suffolk are spreading the disease alarmingly in this reporter’s opinion, and have been for weeks.
In 13 of the last 18 days, the 9 counties have had more cases of new covid than New York City.
The populations of the 9 counties are spreading the disease at a rapid rate.
Suffolk County had 848 new cases reported of covid positives and a 6.2% infection rate of 13,645 tested. Nassau was recorded with 565 positive cases of 12,003 tested, a 4.7% infection rate on very high testing universes.
The Long Island hospitals, CBS radio reported this afternoon said they had plenty of bed space capacity to handle the new infections (without stating how many beds they had available at this time), and also stated they would not limit elective surgeries. It was not clear whether the hospitals were stocking up on covid treatment supplies. Governor Kathy Hochul Saturday evening issued an State of Emergency Executive Order calling for hospitals to limit elective surgeries to assure adequate space and order stores of hospital supplies,.
In two weeks time, the 1,413 infections yesterday could result in 3,000 new cases by December 9, going by the 1 person infecting at least 2 persons.
Nassau county had 229 infections on November 13. Based on Saturday new positives, Nassau infectees November 13 (229) ) divided into 565, Saturday infections yields a 1 person infects 3 other persons (2.450) meaning Nassau we could see 1,400 infections in Nassau two weeks from now.
Suffolk reported 317 two weeks ago. Divide the 848 infections by 317 and we see that each person infected in Suffolk on Novermber 13 infected 2.68 new persons. Multiply Saturday 848 Suffolk infections by 2.68 and it means, depending on effective treatment and medicine availability, Suffolk could see 2,272 new cases from these 848 new cases in two weeks (the incubation period of disease).
Considering they are now infecting hundreds a day, new cases at this level on Long Island could reach 5,000 new cases a day in two weeks unless Nassau and Suffolk pay attention and throttle down the spread.
Here are the latest county by county numbers, released by Governor Hochul’s office at 7 PM. MID-HUDSON COUNTIES WHERE WESTCHESTER IS LOCATED, HIGHLIGHTED IN BOLD.
| County | Total Positive | New Positive | |
| Albany | 34,221 | 105 | |
| Allegany | 5,929 | 12 | |
| Broome | 28,056 | 74 | |
| Cattaraugus | 9,898 | 19 | |
| Cayuga | 9,653 | 14 | |
| Chautauqua | 14,837 | 40 | |
| Chemung | 12,740 | 14 | |
| Chenango | 5,508 | 18 | |
| Clinton | 8,017 | 37 | |
| Columbia | 5,664 | 25 | |
| Cortland | 6,053 | 6 | |
| Delaware | 4,344 | 24 | |
| Dutchess | 37,798 | 65 | |
| Erie | 123,801 | 504 | |
| Essex | 2,964 | 11 | |
| Franklin | 5,365 | 30 | |
| Fulton | 7,768 | 29 | |
| Genesee | 8,556 | 15 | |
| Greene | 4,911 | 20 | |
| Hamilton | 511 | 1 | |
| Herkimer | 8,228 | 48 | |
| Jefferson | 11,237 | 35 | |
| Lewis | 4,169 | 12 | |
| Livingston | 7,132 | 18 | |
| Madison | 7,285 | 26 | |
| Monroe | 96,981 | 255 | |
| Montgomery | 7,110 | 29 | |
| Nassau | 225,182 | 565 | |
| Niagara | 28,469 | 91 | |
| NYC | 1,130,658 | 1,641 | |
| Oneida | 32,950 | 94 | |
| Onondaga | 59,057 | 115 | |
| Ontario | 11,592 | 40 | |
| Orange | 61,914 | 193 | |
| Orleans | 5,434 | 20 | |
| Oswego | 14,047 | 39 | |
| Otsego | 5,321 | 20 | |
| Putnam | 13,091 | 17 | |
| Rensselaer | 17,260 | 72 | |
| Rockland | 55,357 | 85 | |
| Saratoga | 24,400 | 139 | |
| Schenectady | 19,229 | 75 | |
| Schoharie | 2,654 | 17 | |
| Schuyler | 1,919 | 5 | |
| Seneca | 3,200 | 10 | |
| St. Lawrence | 12,724 | 64 | |
| Steuben | 12,372 | 57 | |
| Suffolk | 254,334 | 848 | |
| Sullivan | 9,500 | 36 | |
| Tioga | 6,297 | 17 | |
| Tompkins | 7,359 | 7 | |
| Ulster | 18,957 | 49 | |
| Warren | 7,219 | 54 | |
| Washington | 6,606 | 44 | |
| Wayne | 10,115 | 43 | |
| Westchester | 147,821 | 179 | |
| Wyoming | 5,252 | 23 | |
| Yates | 1,974 | 2 |