WESTCHESTER TOTALS 10,632 NEW POSITIVE COVID CASES IN JUNE
332 A DAY. NEW CASES SOAR IN MIDWEEK AFTER WEEKEND.
CASES RISE 3 OF LAST 4 WEEKS. JULY: 10, 292 POSITIVES IF CURRENT 300 PLUS A DAY AVERAGE SUSTAINS THE SPREADING.
5TH SUMMER WAVE LOOMS AND HAS ALREADY STARTED.
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS REPORT. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. July 4, 2022:
The New York Times ran a feature Sunday, on page 14 of the first section, a pictorial “What’s the vibe right now?” with interviews with persons in the five boroughs who gave answers such as “You Still Live, you still enjoy,” “We’re getting through with smiles,” and “They’re ready to get out and live their life,” “People are more careful,” and “Things are slightly getting back to normal.”
In Westchester people are getting back to normal and they are spreading covid 230 times more than they did last June. The 5 Boroughs of New York since last Tuesday reported 16,492 new positives, 3,298 a day.
The Mid-Hudson region on Saturday reported 549 positives with Westchester reporting 247 of those. Nassau and Suffolk counties reported 961 positives.
The 9 counties surrounding New York City totaled 1,510 positive cases , running at an infection rate of a disturbing 10% positives a day, and the 9 counties have new positives that are 50% of what New York City with 8 million people compared the 5 million of the 9 counties is a pattern that is not going away any time soon;
Last June after the state legislature took away Governor Cuomo’s emergency powers over covid policy, restrictions were lifted people went back to restaurants but still were careful enough so that there were only 450 new positive cases in June. New positives were only 15 a day throughout the county.
Yet still that 450 positives last June jump-started a second wave of covid by August 1st. That sustained itself to a third wave by mid-December that turned into a massive wave in January, the fourth wave— then along came the vaccines to cut that growth by the end of April.
Now the last 30 days the county is spreading the disease at 300 new positives a day.
If this keeps up, July will see 9,300 – person to person. But wait it could be a lot more if the spread rate of the B.A. variants take hold.
What is happening?
People are not taking precautions, not getting vaccinated and not vaccinating their children. Young people may be spreading the disease. But, we do not know. We are not getting demographics steadily on who is getting the disease. We need those to make vaccination decisions.
The other phenomenon that is sustaining more spread this year is people are testing themselves at home.
If they are positive they I believe are not reporting it. Or they go for a PRC lab test and then they are reported positive. This indicates to me that there are a lot more persons positive out there who have not been reported.
The social scene, the shopping scene the entertainment scene the massive fireworks displays around the county are going to give covid another chance to spread.
If you look at the last month covid log below for Tuesdays through Fridays, positive have jacked up consistenly the last 4 weeks of June…this indicates that people go out on the weekend or social get symptoms then go for tests and since they get infected more quickly with the disease variants circulating now, they get positive results Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday and Friday the mid-week surge which has shown up every week like clockwork. You can depend on it.
On the numbers, Westchester County is doing very badly we lead all 7 counties in infections because we are largest in population. We are testing very little.
We tested 18,669 persons the last week June 26 to July 2 and 2,077 tested positive an average of 9.29% positive tests on 18,669 tested. That is a big spread rate considering we are testing an average 2,667 persons a day with Lab reported test results.
I hate to think how many persons are walking around that have not tested .
Looking at June infection rates in Westchester County, this confidence with almost no one masking, and heavy socializing, has resulted in 10, 292 new positives in 32 days (June has two split weeks, May June and June into July).
Last week with graduations hot weather, beach weather, was the first time since the second week in June that Westchester returned to 2,077 new positives between June 26 and July 2, that is 297 a day.
A pattern ahead at 300 infections a day could produce 9,300 in July in 31 days or more the spread rates of the new variants are as volatile as predicted.
Locally Westchester has 22 communities that have averaged over 100 cases over the last two weeks. Here they are:
100 NEW HOMES: VISION FOR THE RIDGEWAY COUNTRY CLUB PROPERTY
WPCNR SOUTHEND TIMES. By John F. Bailey. July 2, 2022 UPDATED 00:45 EDT:
WPCNR has learned John Farrell of Farrell Building Company, in Suffolk County, builder of luxury million dollar plus homes nationwide, and his design team have presented initial plans to the Board of Directors of the Gedney Association announcing what Mr. Farrell wants to build there:
100 homes on 95 acres of the 130-acre property, while preserving 35 acres of the lake and surrounding lowland off Hathaway Lane.
Mr. Farrell purchased the property from the French American School of New York for $16.5 Million in the fall, at the time of purchase he said he planned to build homes according to the existing White Plains zoning residential on 1:30 lots which is 1 home to 30,000 square foot lots about ¾ of one acre).
The present Ridgeway Country Club Clubhouse that has been unused except for an occasional meeting the last 11 years of litigation involving the city and the Gedney Association, will be razed and a downsized clubhouse would be built with tennis courts and pool for purchasers of the homes.
The announcement to members of the Gedney Association membership was reported in the Gedney Association Newsletter, this week. The newsletter said that Mr. Farrell and his “Development Team” were “very responsive to our questions and concerns.”
Mr. Farrell said he planned to present the plan to the City of White Plains for review soon.
No other details were disclosed in the Newsletter. It is unclear if just plans were presented, or if renderings of the styles of homes the Farrell Building Company envisions were presented.
For background, the property has extensive environmental issues involving flooding and will require an environmental review and approval by the state. Previously the most homes thought to be able to be built on the property was 40 homes. Large new homes could command well over $2 Million apiece in that location. At this time, it is not clear how the properties would be built, each custom, or what. Or whether it would be a mix of condo and single family but that would require a zoning change.
Access issues will be a concern from first look. To avoid the traffic using only Ridgeway Avenue as entrance and exit would obviously create traffic issues, if access was not provide from Bryant Avenue and perhaps North Street. If each homeowner owned two cars that would bring 200 vehicles into the development with quite a few deliveries given today’s Amazon delivery habit.
Sanitation issues: A complex sewage system would be needed to serve 100 homes that will be a significant issue.
Fuel issues: Would homes use gas lines? Oil heat? Solar electricity? Wind on site? Interesting thoughts. Interesting options could be offered by Mr. Farrell to make the homes prestigious, expensive homes far more appealing than the older housing stock in White Plains and the rest of Westchester County. Given today’s environmental pressures on fuel and power, how would the homes be powered?
Rising Tide of Prestige: These homes could be highly attractive while raising the property values of the surrounding Gedney neighborhood. A visit to the Farrell Building Company website will show you the state-of-the-art luxury homes this company builds all over the country.
Westchester’s most exciting development in decades: It will be, if approved, the largest, most costly but appealing home development in White Plains since the Toll Brothers property in the Havilands Manor neighborhood where I live, and such a development I do not believe has been built since the luxury homes in Greenwich near Westchester Airport.
Property Taxes: The Farrell project will give White Plains a massive infusion of property tax money. If the Farrell homes sell for say $3 Million apiece and people buy them, let’s just ballpark what a $3 million new house custom will bring in property taxes compared to the property tax on a $650,000 home in White Plains , a home which will generate $20,000 in property taxes to White Plains, White Plains Schools and Westchester County, the property tax on a $3 Million home would be roughly 3 times more, $56,000 more a year in taxes.
Now Mr. Farrell does not have to charge $3 Million for homes, he could charge $1 million if the numbers worked out and still make $100 million on the sale of 100 homes. I don’t think that a $1,000,000 covers the cost of construction per home. However $3,000,000 dollar homes would gross $300 Million an provide a much better margin. If he scaled homes say $2 Million, $4 Million and $6 Million $8 million and $10 million with options more (Farrell has built $6 Million dollar homes.), and built different numbers of homes for each price level higher grosses and more interesting homes might be built. He could add mortgages. The size of the development offers terrific leverage.
This development will put White Plains in the black for years to come. It will bring retailers clamoring for the downtown. The houses will sell for more when they come on the market. And rapidly build their resale value. It could start a whole new Westchester market.
Million dollar plus homes are what Farrell Building Company builds. They build them well.
See what I mean by visiting the Farrell website at https://farrellbuilding.com/