Si quiere leer la versión en español, pulse aquí. State of Affairs: Dec 5All indicators for all respiratory illnesses increasing
In case you missed it, I need your help. Please take a short, 5-minute survey by going HERE. Thanks to all 32,000 (!) of you who have already taken it! Good morning! We are now somehow already into the month of December. (And I haven’t even started holiday shopping yet.) Respiratory illnesses continue to increase due to colder temperatures, changes in human behavior (i.e., holidays), and viruses mutating, like Covid-19. Here is your state of affairs. Influenza-like illnesses: IncreasingThe climate of respiratory health in the United States (coined “influenza-like illnesses” by CDC) continues to grow above the “epidemic” level threshold. It has been a slow crawl, but we expect this to shift to exponential growth soon.
(Source: CDC; Annotated by YLE/Katelyn Jetelina) The South is certainly feeling it the hardest right now, but soon this map will be all red/purple.
Respiratory Illness Activity (Source: CDC) This increase is mostly driven by flu and RSV, while positive tests for Covid-19 remain stubbornly high.
Source: CDC; Annotated by YLE/Katelyn Jetelina Covid-19 continues to cause the highest percentage of deaths. While deaths are increasing, they still remain far lower than this time last year. Flu deaths are starting to show their color.
Source CDC; Annotated by YLE/Katelyn Jetelina Here is your deeper dive into each virus. Covid-19: Huge increases in Northeast and MidwestIf you missed me shouting from the social media rooftop, CDC now has a useful Covid-19 wastewater dashboard. It is absolutely beautiful.* On a national level, Covid-19 transmission in the community has passed the summer wave peak and is approaching last winter’s peak. The Midwest and Northeast are seeing the most exponential spread.
Wastewater SARS-Cov-2 Viral Activity, United States (Source: CDC) This CDC dashboard is updated every Friday. However, we got a sneak peek at what may come as Biobot’s data update was yesterday: Explosive growth in the Midwest and Northeast.
What’s to come? All eyes are still on JN.1—a highly mutated variant. Some European countries are coming close to reaching 50% threshold of JN.1 cases. This is important because we will start seeing the epidemiological implications soon (i.e., its impact on cases and hospitalizations). Given current spread patterns, we expect JN.1 to become the next dominant variant worldwide. The U.S. is weeks behind European countries, but models show we should expect a Covid-19 peak in late December driven by JN.1. It’s hard to know how high the peak will be given the complex immune landscape. We expect 22,000-45,000 daily Covid-19 hospitalizations at the peak this winter. And yes, the fall 2023 vaccine works against JN.1. A pre-print showed that our first line of defense (i.e., neutralizing antibodies) increased when our cells saw the threat in a petri dish. This means the vaccine will still work against infection, but not as much as before. It is still a great tool against hospitalization and death.
Serum virus-neutralizing titers (ID50) of the cohorts against the indicated SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses. Source: Ho et al., Preprint. RSV: HighThis season is looking very much like last year’s. RSV continues to go up and up on a national level.
RSV test positivity rate, United States (Source: CDC) Places in the South—hit first with RSV before spreading to the rest of the country— have peaked. RSV hospitalizations in Georgia, for example, are displayed below.
Rate of RSV hospitalization in Georgia (Source: CDC) A few notes on the RSV vaccine:
Flu: IncreasingFlu infections continue to increase quickly, with hospitalizations starting to tick upward. There have been 8 pediatric deaths due to flu so far this season.
Flu hospitalizations per 100,000 in, United States. (Source: CDC; Annotations by KKJ) Other notable headlines
(CDC)
Bottom lineWe are in the dead middle of the respiratory season, and all indicators are increasing. It is still not too late to get your vaccines! And to take other protective measures to maximize fun holiday activities. Love, YLE *Disclosure: I am a consultant to the CDC and was part of the wastewater tiger team that overhauled the dashboard and data story. “Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night, she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below: |
EARLY DOLLARS: WHITE PLAINS SALES TAXES DOWN 1.7% FLAT YEAR TO YEAR AFTER 4 MONTHS. JAN-JUNE 23 RECEIPTS STAY SAME, A $56 MILLION RECORD SALES TAX $$ POSSIBLE COUNTY TOO FALLS BEHIND BUDGETED SALES TAX EXPECTED. INFLATION LIFT NOT ENOUGH YET. $24 MILLION DEFICIT
WPCNR QUILL & EYESHADE. From the New York State Department of Taxation & Finance. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey. December 4, 2023:
The City of White Plains has collected $18,581,270 in sales tax receipts the first four months of its fiscal year, compared to %18,921,084 in the first 4 months of the city 2022 fiscal year.
The city is actually down 1.7%. The city has to hope for a big-time November-December to catch up. At this rate the city is looking at a $46 Million sales tax handle which would create hole in the city budget due to the practice of taking $5.2 million in restricted sales tax use to pay raises in salaries. This may need to be dealt with as the city takes up the 2023-24 budget. The city may already be looking ahead, considering doubling of parking rates in high volume city parking lots and a rise in fines in city-owned garages.
Last November December, White Plains collected $9,918,562 in sales tax. If they meet that figure the city is sitting on $28.9 Million in sales tax for the first 6 months of the city 22022-23 fiscal year. If the city sees the continued trend in sales tax collections not matching inflation or if the rate of staying flat continues, it is going to be tough to make the additional $5.2 million budgeted in 23-24 for the restricted sales payment.
Here’s what the trend looks like right now for White Plains NY, USA after comparing the trends over the last year:
If the city in the next 6 months of the fiscal year does not top the collected January 2023 to June 2023 the city will make exactly $46.1 in fiscal 23-24. Worse if it continues to decline or stay flat the city will make less and may have to get the restricted sales tax contribution by either raising other sources of revenue. They will not get the $50 million in sales taxes they just barely made last year.
A decline in November December sales tax numbers for 2022 would be a bad omen. But that has rarely happened.
If White Plains receives a November December rush this will ease the things a lot. Why, because if spending continues at the Jan-June spending rate, White Plains will hit $56,417 ,762 and the city will have its $5.2 million for restricted fund balance plus a $6 Million surplus in sales tax revenues
The City of White Plaines received $27,917,930 in sales taxes from January 2023 through June 2023. If that stays the same, the city will gross $56,471, 762
WHITE PLAINS AND WESTCHESTER JUNE 2023 WERE APPROXIMATELY EVEN IN SALES TAX COLLECTION RECEIPTS COMPARED TO JUNE 2022 LAST YEAR. WHITE PLAINS WENT UP 1% AFTER THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2023. AND HIT $50.7 MILLION FOR THE 2021-22 FISCAL.
What does this tell us? Neither White Plains nor Westchester consumers have come back to previous sales tax driving behavior. City and County have not even experience increases from inflation.
The lagging sales tax receipts in the city has to be concerning because it may reflect a lack of patronage in the city restaurants, a lack of traffic in the city ‘s two remaining shopping malls, The Westchester and the City Center that lost its movie theatres last spring.
Failure of to receive any boost from the inflation rate year to year cumulatively reported as 3.5% by the government, including food and fuel, has to be of concern.
Meanwhile Westchester County, is again facing the effect of another overoptimistic sales tax receipts forecast. Last year the county met the sales tax gap by using fund balance to pay for the gap, and used covid aid to replace the transfer of fund balance.
The County: Behind Sales Receipts, $24 Million
The County projected $913 Million in sales tax for 2023, guessing the full 1% sales tax increase would bring a windfall plus inflation. The County so faR according to the state Department of Taxation and Finance has collected $ 728,953,551 in sales taxes and if they collect the same amount in November-December they did last year without a huge increase the county will receive $889.2 Million with $913 Million budgeted for sales tax – approximately a $24 Million gap.
If there were a 5% increase in the November-December County sales tax holiday handle over last year, the handle would rise $8 Million raising sales tax receipts for the year to 897 Million. Not enough.T If the Nov December handle rises 10%, that gives the county $16 million more dollars and essentially erases the $24 Million deficit the county is now running.
The County is crossing its fingers.
OUTBREAK OUTLOOK NORTHEAST DEC 4: RSV RISING QUICKLY NY COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS UP 20%, CONNECTICUT UP 37% IN COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS
Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe Now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin
BY DR. CAITlIN RIVERS, December 4, 2023
(Reprinted with permission)
Respiratory diseases
Influenza-like illness
The Northeast is seeing an uptick in influenza-like illness (ILI) activity, though rates remain lower than other areas of the country. Across the Northeast region, ILI is at 3.4%, up from 3.2% last week. For reference, peak activity last season was 8.6% in this area.
Northeast Region: ILI Activity
Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms
Massachusetts and Maine stood out with the largest single week jumps, rising 0.4 and 0.4 percentage points to 2.5% and 1.6% respectively. New York also posted a noteworthy uptick from 4.8% to 4.9%. More modest ILI increases were seen in Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont all have low and stable levels of activity.
Northeast Region
ILI: Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms.
The arrow plots are back! As a reminder, the root of the arrow shows activity last week, the head of the arrow shows this week, and the label (e.g., 9%) is the percent change between those two weeks.
Covid-19
Covid-19 hospitalization rates in the Northeast increased quite a bit in the last week. Emergency department visits and test positivity are increasing across the region as well, which has me on alert for a winter wave.
Northeast Region: New COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Rate per 100,000 population
At the state level, Connecticut saw a concerning jump, rising from 6.1 to 8.4 new admissions per 100,000. The number of new hospitalizations in Connecticut is now above this summer’s peak. Vermont also posted a sizable increase in hospitalizations, as did Pennsylvania, New York and Massachusetts.
Increases in New Jersey and New Hampshire were more modest.
Northeast Region
Change in key indicators. Covid-19: Weekly new hospitalizations per 100,000.
RSV
RSV activity in the Northeast is increasingly quickly. Across the region, PCR test positivity rose from 11.7% to 13.9%.
Northeast Region: RSV Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage
States seeing the largest increases in activity include Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New York and Maine also posted sizable upticks in RSV test positive rates. New Jersey and New Hampshire rose slightly.
Overall the region is seeing an intensifying RSV trend at an important time just ahead of the holidays. Older adults and parents of infants should be cautious as holiday gathers and travel pick up in the weeks to come.
Northeast Region: RSV Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage
This week I am testing out maps. The darker the color, the higher the test positivity. The green color is missing data — I think next week I’ll try to make those gray. Let me know what you think!
Other Respiratory + Stomach Bugs
I’m keeping an eye on several other respiratory and stomach bugs, but overall things are looking relatively quiet at the moment in the Northeast.
- Seasonal coronavirus activity remains low in the Northeast.
- Human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza and adenovirus activity remains low.
- Norovirus activity is rising quickly. Test positivity is reaching 10%, up from less than 5% just a few weeks ago. Norovirus usually peaks around 15% in early spring, so I wouldn’t be surprised if activity keeps rising through the winter months.
Northeast Region: Norovirus Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New this week:
- The cut cantaloupe recall I have been reporting on for several weeks has expanded considerably. I recommend skipping the pre-cut cantaloupe altogether for a while — including both fresh fruit and fruit cups (more info)
- Peaches, nectarines, and plums sold in bags branded as HMC Farms and Signature farms (more info)
Previously reported:
- Multiple brands of pet food – dog, cat, and catfish food (more info here and here) (Note: this poses a risk to pets and to the people that care for them, since Salmonella can be acquired via handling of the contaminated pet food and/or contact with infected animals. Several human cases, including in infants, have been tied to the pet food.)
- Tyson chicken nuggets (more info)
- Multiple brands of Apple Cinnamon Fruit Puree (more info)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
STOP BADMOUTHING BIDEN?: SOME GOODMOUTHING FACTS, PLEASE! “FOURTH ESTATE IS THE MAKER OF REALITY’
WPCNR THE LETTER TICKER December 2, 2023:
(RE: Ms. Paul NY TIMES “STOP BADMOUTHING BIDEN” COLUMN):
You write: “‘Stop badmouthing Biden,’ some Democrats will say, as if acknowledging reality were akin to arming the enemy.”
The Fourth Estate is the maker of reality. When you and your colleagues in the So-Called Liberal Media join Fox in bashing Biden, his poor ratings becomes your fault. Thus when you demand that Biden step down (when it’s clear he won’t), it is not only feckless, it’s shameless.
You write: “But even if Biden has done a pretty good job as president, most Americans don’t see that.”
He’s not done a “pretty good” job, he’s done a spectacular job, and if Americans don’t see that, it is the fault of the same clueless, craven SCLM that helped elect Trump in the first place. To adopt your metaphor, you are the time bomb ticking under the table. Every time you write about Biden’s age while ignoring Trump’s – or the fact that Trump is far less healthy – mentally or physically – than Biden. My God, do you not have eyes? Or sense?
The Times’s “all-inflation-all-the time” coverage shamelessly buried the causes of inflation, including kinked supply lines and overdemand, when COVID money that would have been spent on vacations and eating out instead was spent on goods because Republicans resistance to the vaccine roll-out prevented re-opening of the economy, and of course CORPORATE GREED, while running human interest stories on how badly people (not SCLM reporters, of course) were faring. If you had done your job, Americans would have had a much different impression of Biden.
Read your colleague David Brooks on Biden as a transformational president. He could be the anti-Reagan, rolling back 40 years of class warfare in which the bottom 90% transferred some 50 trillion dollars to the top 1%.
Biden played Republicans in the same way Reagan played Democrats (viz. letting Kevin McCarthy take credit for the debt ceiling deal after Biden got everything he wanted; or setting up Republicans at the SOTU to promise they wouldn’t touch Social Security or Medicare). What Democrat today can do that going forward? Biden learned from watching Republicans
Here’s a list of what Biden accomplished in his first two years:
• Cutting child poverty by 35% in 2021 by expanding the Child Tax Credit
• IRA is the greatest investment in green energy American history
• The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is the largest long-term investment in infrastructure and the economy in American history.
• The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act is the first gun safety legislation in nearly three decades.
• The PACT Act is the biggest expansion of veterans’ benefits in over three decades and provides medical care for veterans exposed to toxic chemicals.
• The CHIPS Act invests in microchip production to make America more competitive with China and reduce our reliance on foreign sources for a vital component used by the defense industry. T
That’s not “a pretty good job.” That’s doing more with less than any Democrat in this or the last century. Some more metrics are below.
DO YOUR HOMEWORK. DO YOUR JOB. AND STOP ARMING THE ENEMY.
Michael
Michael K. Cantwell
Editor, The Delray Democrat
Delray Beach, FL
(Reprinted with permission of the author)
