Summer Plans: As summer approaches and data on respiratory diseases dwindles, I am moving to my off-season schedule:

• For paid subscribers, I’ll be combining weekly updates into a single report. Expect these updates to be less detailed until the fall.
• Free subscribers will continue to receive occasional essays and posts during the summer months, but I won’t be posting as often.
• In the fall, I will return to sending out a full-length, free national version of Outbreak Outlook. Paid subscribers will receive region-specific editions with more local data.

ILI

The summertime respite continues, with influenza and influenza-like illness at minimal levels across the country.

Nationally, hospitalization rates are near-zero (0.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 population), and outpatient visits for ILI remain low at 1.4% of all visits to the doctor. Every state looks good, with no outliers or hot spots.

Even that 0-4 age group, which tends to continue to have higher levels of spread even during the summer, is reporting relatively low levels of outpatient visits for ILI (4.4%).

COVID-19

Several of the data sources did not update this week due to the July 4th holiday, so we are dealing with an even more limited picture of what is going on with Covid-19. Still, I think it’s fair to say that activity is still increasing in the Western region of the country, continuing a weeks-long trend. The South is also picking up, particularly Florida. The Midwest and Northeast are seeing some increase, but nothing marked at this point.

In terms of severe illness, hospitalization rates remain very low nationally (1.8 hospitalizations per 100,000), but numbers are trending up. At the state level Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee reported notable increases in hospitalizations.

In addition, California reported a notable Covid-19 hospitalization rate, now at 4.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 which is 2.5 times where it was two months ago, and similar to levels last seen in February.

Wastewater and emergency department data were not updated this week.

 

 

Stomach Bugs

Norovirus remains unseasonably high, however, nationally, test positivity declined a bit this past week, down to 8.9% (from 10% last week). The Midwest, South, and Northeast saw improvements this past week, but the West saw another increase in test positivity.

Starting in the West, test positivity bounced up nearly two points to 12.1%. This is more than twice what it has been this time of year for the past several years (including prior to Covid-19).

In the Midwest, test positivity dipped slightly to 10.3%, and in the South, after several weeks of sharp increases, test positivity declined nearly two points to 7.8%. Despite these improvements, rates remain unusually high for this time of year in both the Midwest and South.

Biggest improvement goes to the Northeast, which saw test positivity rates nearly cut in half this past week – down to 3.8%, which is more in keeping with what we’d expect this time of year.

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New

• Ground beef distributed under different labels (more info)
• Viva Raw pet food (dog & cat)—this poses a health risk both to pets and to humans that have handled the food (more info)
• Urban Spirits non-alcoholic drink mixes (more info)

Previously reported:

• Ice cream sold under several brands, including Friendly’s, Hershey’s Ice Cream, and Jeni’s at retail locations and through direct delivery nationwide have been recalled due to potential Listeria monocytogenes contamination. (more info)
• Smoked Norwegian Salmon Slices sold at Kroger and Payless (more info)
• Multiple brands of fresh spinach (Solata, Gaia Organic, Full Circle Organic, Farmer Direct, Uncle Vinny’s, Bogopa), expiry dates of 6/20 – 6/24 (more info)
• Terrafina brand Macadamia in the Raw sold in NY (more info)
• Dried Orzo and Campanelle sold by Wildly Beloved Foods at a range of supermarkets and farmers markets in Washington (more info)
• Tomato Basil Sauce sold under the Hudson Harvest brand name in New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts (more info)
• Canned coffee products sold under several brand names, all produced by Snapchill LLC (more info)
• Diamond Schruumz (TM) brand chocolate bars, cones, and gummies (marketed as containing mushroom extracts) (more info)
• If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In Other News

• Colorado reported a human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) in a dairy worker. The person experienced conjunctivitis (red eyes). This is the 4th such case reported this year. In livestock, 54 detections have been reported across 7 states in the last 30 days.
• In other influenza news, Germany reported a rare outbreak of highly pathogenic H7N5 bird flu on a farm in Bad Bentheim, Lower Saxony, near the Dutch border. The outbreak, detected on June 29 and confirmed on July 2, resulted in the death of 6,000 birds out of a flock of 90,879. This H7N5 strain is distinct from the widely spread H5N1 strain and marks the first recorded outbreak of H7N5 in the World Organisation for Animal Health’s public records, which date back to 2005.
• The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a Health Alert Network (or HAN) advisory warning clinicians to be alert for dengue infections. Global dengue cases have reached record-breaking levels, with countries in the Americas reporting over 9.7 million cases from January to June, more than double the total for 2023. In the U.S., Puerto Rico has declared a public health emergency, and there’s a higher-than-expected number of cases among U.S. travelers.
• In case you missed it, I wrote a piece published in Foreign Affairs last week about one way we can get ahead of outbreaks and restore trust in public health institutions: excellence. Read it here.