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Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin
Respiratory Diseases
ILI
As I wrote in the National edition, the Trump administration’s pause on health communications interrupted flu data, specifically outpatient influenza-like illness.
To close the gap, I visited all 50 websites of the state health departments, and gathered what I could.
At the national level, flu defied my expectations by resurging after two consecutive weeks of improvement.
Unfortunately, the Northeast is affected by this trend, with New Jersey and New York seeing increases in influenza-like illness. New Jersey and Connecticut also saw marked increases in emergency department visits, suggesting the region is seeing a second peak.
In New York City, hospitalizations are fairly low and stable. Still, the city continues to report 1-2 deaths from Covid-19 each day.
New Jersey leads the region with ED visits at 8.0% (up sharply from 6.0%, a 32% increase). New York shows elevated activity with ED visits at 5.2% (up from 4.3%) and the region’s highest hospitalization rate at 9.1 per 100,000 (up from 8.0), with ILI visits at 3.7%. Pennsylvania reports increasing ED visits at 4.4% (up from 3.4%).
Connecticut shows significant increases with ED visits at 5.7% (up from 3.7%, a 53% increase) and hospitalizations at 7.4 per 100,000 (down from 9.5). Massachusetts reports ED visits at 5.2% (up from 3.6%), with ILI visits at 6.9%. Rhode Island shows lower but increasing ED visits at 3.4% (up from 2.7%).
New Hampshire reports ED visits at 5.2% (up from 4.3%). Vermont shows moderate activity with ED visits at 3.3% (up from 2.4%), with ILI visits at 2.8%. Maine maintains the region’s lowest ED visit rate at 2.1% (virtually unchanged from 2.1%), with ILI visits at 3.7%.
I could not find updated information for New York City. The city’s next report will be published here, but I’m not sure when it will become available.
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COVID-19
Indicators are mixed in the Northeast. Wastewater activity is high in most states, and hospitalizations are elevated, but ED visits remain minimal.
Wastewater activity is moderate after declining dramatically in the Northeast, dropping by half in the past two weeks. However, right now the regional average obscures a more complicated state-level picture.
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Source: CDC
While wastewater activity is minimal and stable in New York, it is high or very high everywhere else.
In Massachusetts, activity is very high and held roughly stable this past week. Activity is high and increasing in New Jersey. In contrast, activity is decreasing, but still at very high levels in Maine and at high levels in Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. (Data are limited for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire).
Severe illness is mixed: ED visits are minimal, but hospitalizations are elevated. ED visits are minimal and decreasing across much of the Northeast. ED visits have decreased from 3 to 1.8% in the past couple weeks in New Hampshire and from 3.1% to 1.4% in Maine. ED visits are minimal and decreasing in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Connecticut is the only state that reported a (slight) increase in ED visits this past week, up to 1.7% (low).
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Hospitalizations are elevated in the Northeast, with most states hold fairly steady between 4 to 6.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. The exception is Pennsylvania, where hospitalizations are very high (12.3) and increasing.
In New York City, hospitalizations are fairly low and stable. Still, the city continues to report 1-2 deaths from Covid-19 each day.
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Source: CDC
In better news, hospitalizations decreased substantially in Massachusetts, from 9 to 5.6.
RSV
Activity is moderate to low across the region, with most states seeing a decrease in the percent of ED visits for RSV. I expect continued decline in the weeks ahead, though it’s worth noting that activity remains elevated compared to the off-season.
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Stomach Bugs
Nothing new reported this week due to the Trump Administration’s pause on health communications. Given how high rates were last week, I expect norovirus to still be very active this week. Keep washing those hands.
Food recalls
The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:
New:
- Nothing new. Two recalls not related to food contamination were posted, so this is not due to lack of reporting.
Previously reported:
- Casa Mamita frozen chicken and cheese taquitos (more info)
- Wicklow Gold Cheddar Cheeses (more info)
- Blue Ridge Beef Kitten mix [for Cats] (more info). While not for human consumption, humans may be infected with Salmonella if they do not adequately wash their hands or contaminated surfaces after handling the product.
- Marketside Broccoli Florets (more info)
- Connie’s Thin Crust Cheese Frozen Pizzas (more info)
- If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.
In other news–BIRD FLU SPREADS TO NY, MASSACHUSETTS.
- New York’s Crescent Duck Farm, the last commercial duck farm on Long Island, culled its entire 100,000-bird flock and the laying off of 47 staff members following an outbreak of H5N1.
- The farm, a fourth-generation family business since 1908, supplies nearly 4% of the nation’s duck meat and is known for its high-quality birds. Despite strict biosecurity measures, the virus breached the facility, prompting a months-long sanitization process and quarantine. Thousands of duck eggs will be sanitized and hatched offsite to potentially rebuild the flock.
- D.W. Field Park in Brockton, Massachusetts has closed due to a potential bird flu outbreak, following reports of dead geese and swans at Upper Porter Pond. This closure comes days after 60 birds were found dead at Billington Sea in Plymouth, about 20 miles away. Park officials have urged the public not to touch injured or deceased birds. Testing to confirm bird flu could take up to a week, with no timeline yet for reopening.
