Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

Subscribed

Respiratory Diseases

Influenza

Flu activity continues to drift down, but most states in the region are still much higher than what we see during the off season.

Maine leads Northeastern states with an outpatient ILI percentage of 5.8%, down from 6.3% the previous week. ED visits stand at 4.8%, among the highest in the region.

New York follows closely with outpatient ILI at 5.6% (ignore the big gray bar in the plot below, that is because of missing data last week). The state reports the highest hospitalization rate in the Northeast at 7.2 per 100,000, though ED visits are comparatively lower at 2.5%. In New York City, outpatient ILI is still super high at 7%. Activity there is falling, but the declines have slowed somewaht.

Northeast: Outpatient influenza-like illness

% of visits to the doctor that are for fever and either cough or sore throat

New Jersey reports similar levels with outpatient ILI at 5.6%, after decreasing from 6.3% the previous week. ED visits stand at 3.2%, which is moderate to high.

Northern New England is still in the thick of it. Massachusetts reports outpatient ILI at 4.7%, though this is a big improvement from 6.3% the prior week, with ED visits at 3.3%. New Hampshire shows similar outpatient ILI at 4.7%, after a big decrease from 6.7% the previous week, but reports the highest ED visit percentage in the region at 5.2%.

Connecticut maintains moderate outpatient ILI at 3.8% (down slightly from 4.0%), with the second-highest hospitalization rate in the region at 6.5 per 100,000 and ED visits at 3.7%.

Vermont doesn’t appear in the outpatient ILI dataset but reports elevated ED visits at 3.4%. Rhode Island shows outpatient ILI at 2.9% (down from 3.8%), with ED visits at 1.9%, the lowest in the region. Pennsylvania reports the lowest outpatient ILI percentage in the Northeast at 2.8% (down from 3.4%), with ED visits at 3.1%.

Northeast: ED visits for influenza (%)

% of visits to the emergency department that are for influenza

COVID-19

Covid-19 is pretty quiet. Wastewater activity held roughly steady at low levels this past week. Severe illness is low and decreasing.

Wastewater activity has declined to low levels in Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. While activity is still high in Connecticut and New Jersey, it is trending downward. Activity remains stable at very low levels in New York. It has been roughly around this level since late September, which is a startlingly long stretch without a wave.

Northeast: Covid-19 wastewater concentration

Wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2

ED visits are minimal and decreasing or stable across the region, with the exception of Rhode Island, which reported a slight increase. ED visits have declined substantially, and are now 2-4x lower than they were in January in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. In Maine, ED visits have decreased 8-fold since January, down to 0.4%.

Northeast: ED visits for Covid-19 (%)

% of visits to the emergency department that are for Covid-19

Hospitalizations are fairly low across most of the region, with most states reporting rates <4.0 hospitalizations per 100,000. Hospitalizations decreased or held steady this past week in most states. Hospitalizations continue to slowly improve in Pennsylvania, where rates have declined to 6.3, down from 12.8 in mid-January.

RSV & Other Bugs

Data on other respiratory pathogens was not updated this week.

Stomach Bugs

Norovirus data was not updated this week, but I think it is a safe bet that rates are still very high.

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New:

• Enoki mushrooms sold under Daily Veggies brand (more info)
• Hot pot sauce sold under Wangshihe brand (more info)

Previously reported:

• Prepared vegetables sold at Tokyo Central/Marukai stores in California (more info)
• Wild Coast Raw Chicken Formula [for cats] due to potential contamination with avian influenza H5N1 (more info). This poses a risk to cats who ingest the product, as well as to humans handling the product.
• Lyons ReadyCare and Sysco Imperial Frozen Supplemental Shakes in various flavors (more info)
• Canned Tuna sold under Genova, Van Camp’s, H-E-B, and Trader Joe’s brand names (more info)
• If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In other news

• Beginning in April, I’m transitioning to my summer publication schedule since flu, Covid-19, and RSV are winding down. Summer schedule includes:
  • Weekly national edition for paid subscribers only
  • No regional editions (unless epidemic trends warrant additional coverage)
  • Regular wintertime schedule will resume in October with flu season
  • Readers do not need to take any action. You will continue to receive paid posts over the summer, and you will resume receiving regional editions in October automatically.
• Suffolk County, NY health officials have confirmed the first case of measles on Long Island in a child under 5 years old who is unvaccinated. This marks New York’s third measles case this year and the first outside New York City, with the previous two cases occurring in unvaccinated infants who have since recovered. The child was treated at Cohen Children’s Medical Center in Queens between March 3-6 but did not attend daycare or school while infectious.

Reader poll

I’m thinking of adding a benefit for paid subscribers. Would you be interested in receiving regular updates (maybe daily or every other day) on newly reported measles cases? This would help you quickly know if a case is reported near your location. You can also leave a comment or reply to this email to share more thoughts or ideas.