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COVID CASES RISING AT 278 A DAY—TRACKING TO TOP 2,000 CASES FOR WEEK. RAISES QUESTION MORE WESTCHESTER PERSONS SHOULD TEST. 4,973 AVERAGE TESTED DAILY IN 13 DAYS.
WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis & Observation by John F.Bailey. April 21, 2022:
From Sunday through Tuesday, Westchester County reported 238,273 and 321 new persons testing positive for covid . Tuesday’s result, showed a positive rate of 6% on 4,751 persons taking the tests.
The testing is voluntary with only those persons worried they might have the disease, apparently getting tested.
This raises the issue that many persons are not choosing to test which could possibly mean the more persons tested the higher number positives the county may actually have walking about, socializing, in the workplace, the restaurants and bars, on airplanes, or coming into the New York area not being tested.
In the past Westchester has tested upwards of 8,000 persons. On April 7, just 2 weeks ago, Westchester tested 8,774 persons and 397 persons tested positive. In recent days the testing quantities are sinking to very low levels. Last week, the 397 persons testing positive April 7 after 14 days infected as of Tuesday, 2,859 persons.
The 2,859 new infections in 14 days traced to that one day April 7, computes to a spread rate for each of those 397 persons one day on April spreading the covid disease to 7 persons over two weeks.
Yet, the Tracker reports show numbers of persons tested are dropping as most tests are now voluntary or home based.
Tests of Westchester residents through last 14 days FROM April 7 through August 19 are only averaging 5,000 a day the last 14 days and infected 7 persons per day, so conceivably if you tested more you would find more persons with covid than the 321 you had an Tuesday when Westchester had 321. The Wednesday figure is due this after
April 19: 4,751
April 18: 3,380
April 17: 2,755
April 16, 3,937
April 15: 5,212
April 14: 5,191
April 13: 5,233
April 12: 5,152
April 11: 3,387
April 10: 3,586
April 9: 6,481
April 8: 6,815
April 7: 8,774
The average number of tests over those 13 days of 64,654 is 4,973 tests per day. If 8,000 tested, you conceivably could find 400 more new positives using the mathematical calculation that 397 persons infected April 7 infected 7 other persons (2,859) the last 13 days.
There could be many more persons who have self-tested, or not tested at all, who are walking around with potential to spread the disease.
The 9 Mid-Hudson Counties, plus Nassau and Suffolk reported 1,573 Persons testing positive, up 345. Westchester County was up 48 new cases to 321 from 273 Monday.
The five New York City Boroughs doubled the number of positive cases from 1,823 Monday to 3,999 Tuesday, up 2,176 new covid cases.
The Biden Administration appealed the striking down of mask requirements on public transportation ruling made by a Federal Judge yesterday. New York Governor Kathy Hochul kept the masking requirement on transit in New York State pending the appeal being resolved.
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WPCNR PLAYLAND-GO-ROUND. PHOTO TOUR OF PLAYLAND CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS by John F. Bailey April 20, 2022:
The story so far: Construction on rehabilitating Playland by a county-selected contractor began in September shortly after Playland closed for the season, after the county had settled with Standard Amusements over the county contention that Standard had not fulfilled their contract.
The Bankruptcy Court Judge Robert Drain had ruled in spring of 2021 the county and Standard Amusements had to negotiate an arrangement. The two parties settled their dispute with the county agreeing to pay $125 Million in Playland infrastructure improvements, and Standard Amusements taking over management of the park in January of this year.
The $125 Million the county is paying includes $40 million for a new family pool still under construction. Construction was begun in September on the infrastructure improvements . The county changed contractors in December because they deemed the work was progressing too slowly. Work has been progressing at a brisk pace through very tough cold and weather conditions.
How it looks this week:
WPCNR walked around the park last week and this is what WPCNR saw:
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WPCNR COVID DAILY. From New York State Covid Tracker. Analysis and Comment by John F. Bailey. April 19, 2022 UPDATED 4:30 P.M. EDT;
Westchester County Executive George Latimer commenting on the state of the slow BUT steady growth in Westchester new covid cases the last 3 weeks, said on WVOX Dennis and Tonny, Good Morning Westchester program Westchester cases had numbered 900 three weeks ago and this week the county has 3,000 active cases with the number of hospitalizations gone up from 35 to 50 as of Monday.
“The numbers are rising. It is not encouraging,” Latimer said in his weekly radio address on WVOX. He said the county was not contemplating any mandates or restrictions to deal with the steady spread.
Sunday the New York Covid Tracker after spring break reported 238 new covid cases in Westchester.
This afternoon, the Covid Tracker reported 273 more new persons positive for Covid in Westchester,
In the Mid-Hudson region consisting of Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, Sullivan and Putnam Counties, there were a total of 482 new covid cases Sunday. Covid Tracker reported 517 more tested positive Monday in the 7 counties.
The 9 county new covid cases surrounding New York City when you include Nassau County Positives (404) and Suffolk (327) totaled 1,213 on Sunday on Monday the 9 totaled 1,228 more.
In New York City the total new cases in all 5 boroughs was 1,505. If that 1500 daily keeps up through this week, NYC will have as many as 9,000 new cases of covid this week. With New York City Schools coming back to classes next week and masks over the age of 5, not required in schools, and the 2 persons for every one person newly infected by the disease, covid infections may be considerably more.
The state has much better data at its command to determine the rate of spread of the virus makes from one infected person to another, but does not figure that highly significant ratio of spread. They should.
The amount of testing on Easter Sunday in Westchester County was very low, only 2,755 tests reported and 238 persons were positive on a holiday Sunday that was 9.2 % on the low test numbers. Unless there is more testing and more metrics put out showing what infections two weeks ago will result in, all WPCNR can rely on are the new testing positives compared with the infections two weeks ago.
This is a crucial week. If students coming back to school in Westchester show more positive cases, and not all school districts are automatically testing students at the door this week, (in fact we do not know any that are adapting a pre-emptive testing). We should know by the end of the week school district by school district based on the State School Covid Tracker. As reported in a previous Covid Daily the number of student covid positives in Westchester alone stood at 23,830.
LOCATIONS WHERE NEW INFECTIONS ARE OVER 100 ACTIVE CASES LAST TWO WEEKS
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WPNR COVID DAILY From the New York Covid Tracker. Observations & Analysis by John F. Bailey. 9:15 A.M.. EDT: April 18, 2022 :
Westchester County went over 2,000 new cases of Covid in the last 7 days April 10 through 16.
This parallels the rise in covid to the 2,000 plus levels the county experienced beginning the third week in December 5 months ago. That pre-holiday rise foreshadowed the levels of 26,002 new cases in mid-January which declined into February.
In the last three weeks, preceding the Passover, Easter and Ramadan holidays, Westchester has recorded 1,095 new cases March 27 to April 2 (up 27% in that week. From Apriil 3 to 9, the new cases hit 1,895 up 73%.
In the last week, when schools were on vacation in Westchester, with Saturday new cases reported at 273, Westchester new cases climbed to 2,027 April 10 through 16, increasing 7% from last week.
Last week, 6 days before Easter Sunday, new infections averaged 289 new positives a day.
Around the County cases on the County city and town Covid Tracker the worry spots in the county continued to be the larger cities and towns, but cases were up in numbers through most of the county. Here’s a look at where Westchester stands in Active cases, and average daily new cases:
THE 16 MOST COVID ACTIVE AREAS IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY LAST TWO WEEKS
It is significant to remember that those are new active cases over two weeks and perhaps have spread the disease without knowing it to others.
The average Spread infection rate from the 1095 new cases in the County from March 27 to April 2 is figured by dividing the cases 10 to 14 days ago into the latest week cases (2,027 cases this past week April 9 to 16 divided by the 1,095 cases two weeks ago) .
That gives us a Spread Rate of 1 newly infected person March 27 to April 2, infecting 1.83 persons or 2 persons. That is growing..
If the 2,027 positive last week spread covid at the same spread rate over the next 10 to 14 days Westchester could conceivably have 4,054 new infections of covid the end of the week of April 30.
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