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WPCNR CAMPAIGN 2022. Analysis by Professor Stephen R. Rolandi June 23, 2022
Professor Stephen Rolandi
WPCNR Political Analyst
Primary Day is next Tuesday for statewide offices and the Assembly; as a result of successful legal challenges to the initial redistricting plans for Federal offices and the State Senate, a second primary will be held on August 23.
The main event is the primary races for Governor and Lt. Governor. Gov. Kathy Hochul is being challenged for the Democratic nomination by U.S. Representative Tom Suozzi and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who have waged spirited campaigns.
The Governor’s relatively strong approval ratings, large campaign war chest and support from upstate and women voters will carry her to victory. Rep. Suozzi should do well on Long Island and Mr. Williams’ strength will be in the City.
Governor Hochul’s coattails should be strong enough to bring her new Lt. Governor running mate along with her.
The GOP race is more fluid with the official party (and Conservative Party/Parents Party nominee) designee Rep. Lee Zelden battling three strong candidates, including former Westchester County Executive Robert Astorino. The GOP organization should be able to pull this one out for Mr. Zelden. Andrew Giuliani, son of the former Mayor, will make this close, on his strength among Republican voters in NYC. Here are my pre-primary calls:
Democratic Primary:
Governor: Lt. Governor:
Hochul* 49% Delgado* 43%
Suozzi 31% Reyna 35%
Williams 20% Archila 22%
Republican Primary:
Governor:
Zelden 34%
Giuliani 31%
Astorino 21%
Wilson 14%
*incumbent
Note: There are no primaries for Lt. Governor, Controller and AG on the GOP side; nor primaries for Controller and AG on the Democratic ballot.
(Professor Stephen Rolandi previously served as Deputy Commissionerfor the New York State Division of Human Rights, and the New York City Department of Records and Information Services. A political scientist, he is an Adjunct Professor of Public Administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY. His views do not necessarily reflect those of his current/former employers).
WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. June 24, 2022:
Thank you Governor Kathy Hochul.
Within an hour of the Supreme Court ruling New York State’s “Concealed Carry Law” unconstitutional, Governor Kathy Hochul, 4 Days ahead of the Gubernatorial Primary gave evidence why she is by far the best person for the job.
She acted.
She said to legislators, dump those plane tickets to sunspots, islands, and lakes, legislators, your constituents need you back in Albany to do lifesaving work: actually protect New Yorkers from the Supreme Court that loves Western movies.
Next week they will be telling women you can’t have an abortion.
Well before Governor Hochul is accosted by the gun lobby supporters in the legislature, here is a list of new legislation that should put an end to this madness.
No “wait and see what happens,” wimpy measures. It’s time for every one of these suggestions I have just created below because the measures do what must be done. Do not excuse the shooters and let the new Supreme Court “You have a right to shoot people posse” escalate the national carnage. (Which they just did. Socrates is shaking his head.)
I herewith offer, to wit, some legislative aids to the brave Governor and the legislators I call…
The NEW YORK DON’T TAKE YOUR GUNS TO TOWN IN NY DOCTRINE
All persons entering New York State from now on, must register in advance with the state if they intend to bring a concealed gun of any kind into the state. Anyone not carrying a registration will be arrested and charged with carrying an unauthorized gun. Curtail the cowboys coming in from the traildrives.
All foreign visitors coming to New York even those coming to airports must sign a form saying whether or not they will be carrying concealed weapons (of any kind, knives, paper guns, whatever. by signing the certificate if they are involved in a crime involving a gun they discharge will be arrested. This should apply to diplomats, too. No more immunity!
Bars, restaurants, nightclubs, theaters, movie houses, must have metal detectors at entrance to dedect “concealed guns,” and have the guns “checked” during the performance or stay in the bar. This is what they did in the old West. (The Supreme Court brings back Dodge City)
Permits to get a pistol in NY should not be issued for a year (to avoid failure to manage anger).
Extensive training in how to use a handgun and carry it should be mandated and administered by the military or trained instructors.
Quick draw holsters, shoulder holsters, guns that are catapulted into the hand for carrying guns should be banned for the capacity to create spontaneous gun violence – the only reason to have such pistol carry rigs. Eliminate “showdowns.”
Ammunition for pistols should be limited to one loading, magazine, at every purchase to prevent capacity for a mass shooting. Simple reason: if you can’t get a lot of bullets, any reckless endangerment you execute with your gun will be limited to killing or wounding 6 people.
A massive illegal gun buy back has to be funded to buy back the gun supply out there that arms the professional criminals young and old.
All concealed carry guns have be surrendered and held when entering government buildings. If not, the gun is confiscated and person refusing to give it up will be arrested for violating government sanctity.
Perimeter checkpoints should be established at all schools,houses of worship, community non government meetings manned by local law enforcement. No concealed weapons allowed inside school perimeter. Again metal detectors.
Persons selling guns illegally should lose their ability to sell firearms legally.
All persons with gun permits must check in with a gun control bureau gun management professional officer, annually for a psychological test and update on their last year’s activity for unemployment, divorce, social relationships, and have a psychological evaluation. A little like having your car inspected and re-registered every year. But unlike the ludicrous Registration and Inspection procedure, the Gun will not be checked, the person who would be using the gun would be inspected for “stability.” Sort of like pilots having medical examinations.
All applying for gun permit should have their guns they purchased equipped with a microchip so they can be tracked by GPS. Guns already owned by Permittees would have to be outfitted with such a microchip
A National Stop Me Line for persons who like to conceal their guns should be available when they are so mad they might pull out a gun and go and kill their co-workers, their spouse, etc.
All Police Departments should conduct routine visits with gunowners living in their town to assess the person who have guns state of mind as to whether they are still emotionally stable or need additional refresher training in gun management.
All mass transit should have security wanding at the turnstiles, entrance to bus, cab, or uber vechile.
Make stop and frisk mandatory at entry to apartments, Housing projects, Houses of Worship, athletic facilities.
Create Points of Entry (like New York Customs) to come into New York State with the following questions:
1. Business here?
2. Do you Carry a Concealed Weapon? If so, show me your permit?
3. Where will you be staying?(to inform towns the visitor will be coming to their town armed)
4. Will you fill out a concealed weapon declaration? (to keep track of traveling guns in the state)
On conventions and business groups, All persons staying with a group on business in NY must file a listing of persons carrying concealed weapons, and the state will advise the authorities of the hotels where they are staying.
Hotels must in turn conviscate the guns while the gun owners are staying inside the hotel, to avoid violence in hotel rooms. A corollary to this suggestion is hotels adopt a “No guns, or check your guns with the concierge,” like saloons of the “B” Westerns.
OVER 500 WHITE PLAINS HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES RECEIVED THEIR DIPLOMAS BEFORE A PACKED LOUCKS FIELD CROWD OF PARENTS AND FRIENDS WEDNESDAY AS THEY STEPPED INTO THEIR FUTURE.JOURNEY’S START. THE FIRST OFFICIAL OUTDOOR GRADUATION IN THREE YEARS. MAY THIS CLASS AND THE CLASSES IN COMING YEARS USE THEIR TALENT, TENACITY AND TOUGHNESS TO HEAL THE NATION ONE PERSON AT A TIME BY THEIR STRENGTH, COMMITMENT, AND COMPASSION
New 20-story affordable Senior Housing building planned on the site of the Board of Elections Parking lot. Opening Date: 2024. (SLCE Architects)
WPCNR REALTY REALITY. From the Westchester County Department of Communications. June 23, 2022:
(White Plains, NY) – Westchester County Executive George Latimer joined members of Westchester County’s LGBTQ+ Advisory Board, The LOFT LGBTQ+ Community Center, Monadnock Development and HANAC announced Westchester’s first LGBTQ+ friendly housing development that will bring 140 units of affordable senior housing to downtown White Plains. It will also include a larger space for The LOFT LGBTQ+ Community Center to continue to support its advocacy, education and health programs.
Latimer said: “This partnership will lead to the creation of a safer space for everyone, not just for LGBTQ+ people. We want our Westchester neighbors, no matter what age they are, to know this County is inclusive, their identity is accepted and they can make a home here. Affordable housing has been a priority for my administration and we want to reach all corners of the County with this opportunity. It will address the pressing needs of the LGBTQ+ community while expanding the vital services provided by The LOFT.”
(L-R) Stacy Bliagos, Executive Dir HANAC; Michael Sabatino, LGBTQ Advisory Board; Westchester County Executive George Latimer; Judy Troilo, Ex. Dir The LOFT LGBTQ+ Community Center; Jewel Williams Johnson, Westchester County Legislator.
White Plains Mayor Thomas Roach said:
“Diversity produces vibrant communities. White Plains is a special place to live, work and play due in large part to its diversity. The project developed by the LOFT, Monadnock Development and HANAC embodies the best of the city. The addition of affordable senior housing and a space for a beloved community organization in the City of White Plains is a win-win.”
The LOFT LGBTQ+ Community Center will occupy more than 7,000 square feet of a newly constructed building on the Southwesterly corner of Court and Quarropas Streets in White Plains. HANAC and Monadnock will own and operate the housing components and work with The LOFT to ensure all seniors feel welcomed.
While the housing is not exclusively for members of the LGBTQ+ community, this is the first housing complex in the County that is friendly and supportive to LGBTQ+ residents with services being provided by the LOFT at the community facility space to assist with healthcare and more. The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force estimates there are over three million LGBTQ+ seniors in the United States with that number expected to double by 2030.
Executive Director of The LOFT LGBTQ+ Community Center Judy Troilo said:
“There was a time in our history, in the not so distant past, when members of the LGBTQ+ community weren’t living long enough to need senior housing. There was also so much fear associated with identifying as LGBTQ+ publicly. This housing today is a symbol of how far we have come. Granted, we still have a long way to go, but this is a tremendous day. Our long-standing goal of providing Westchester’s LGBTQ+ elders with safe, affordable, and affirming housing has arrived! In addition, our brand-new center will include space for our growing programs, and a home for a partner provider to offer medical and mental Health services specifically to LGBTQ+ individuals and families here in Westchester County. Having all these incredible services under one roof is truly groundbreaking and will no doubt become a model for others to follow nationally.”
Chair of the Westchester County LGBTQ+ Advisory Board Christopher Oldi said:
“The addition of much needed senior affordable housing is a paramount concern for the community. Oftentimes, LGBTQ+ seniors are discriminated against or ostracized. We want our aging population to know they are welcome here in Westchester County. The Westchester County LGBTQ+ Advisory Board applauds the partnership between The LOFT and HANAC Development to construct senior affordable housing in downtown White Plains. The Board is so pleased that The LOFT will find itself in a new space, more accessible to public transportation, with the ability to reach an even wider swath of the queer community in Westchester (and beyond) than it already does. The Advisory Board looks forward to continuing to collaborate with The LOFT and HANAC as they embark on this incredible journey together!”
Chair of Monadnock Development Nick Lembo said:
“Producing high quality, affordable senior housing is a critical part of the Monadnock Company identity. For almost 50 years, we have demonstrated an unwavering commitment to house vulnerable senior citizens in the best possible accommodations. We are energized by the opportunity to partner with HANAC and continue our mission in collaboration with Westchester County and the City of White Plains to provide best in class affordable senior housing. Furthermore, we are looking forward to having The LOFT provide essential services to the LGBTQ+ community out of our development. We thank County Executive Latimer for his vision and leadership.”
WPCNR NEWS AND COMMENT. From Your Local Epidemiologist. Jun 22, 2022:
The newest Omicron variant, BA.4/5, is gaining traction, causing case, hospitalization, and death curves to trend upwards in many countries. This variant was first detected in South Africa in early 2022 and caught our attention because it had several mutations on the spike protein.
Two mutations in particular, called L452R and F486V, caught our attention because we had seen them on previous variants of concern. Recent lab and epidemiological data show BA.4/5 to be driving this wave, in part due to reinfections and infections after vaccination.
Infections. In the lab, we see that Omicron is getting better at escaping our first line of defense—neutralizing antibodies. The figure below displays the step-wise function of losing neutralizing antibody protection more and more with each subsequent Omicron variant. Note that among recently boosted, BA.4/5 does not fully escape immunity.
This means, in the short-term, boosters help prevent infection and thus transmission.Wang et al., preprint; Source here.
Other lab studies show Omicron escapes infection-induced immunity, too.
We are particularly worried about recent BA.1/2 infections (first Omicron waves). Data from South Africa found immune escape more pronounced among unvaccinated compared to vaccinated (not boosted) people (5-fold difference).
Another study found BA.1 or BA.2 infection among unvaccinated people induced very low levels of antibodies against BA.4/5.
Those who were infected and vaccinated did have meaningful protection, albeit at lower levels than before. Kimura et al preprint. Source here.
Weakening our first line of defense—neutralizing antibodies— will mean more (re)infections. Lab data compliments what we are seeing in the “real world”.
BA.4/5 drove a substantial case wave in South Africa regardless of their high level of immunity. Case waves across Europe are now well on their way, too. In the U.K., reinfections are on the rise, even among 60+ year olds.
We don’t have epidemiological data on duration of booster effectiveness against BA.4/5. Data from the U.K. showed that boosters provided strong initial protection against BA.1 or BA.2 infection but quickly diminished to 0% five months later.
We expect BA.4/5 to shorten this timeline even more. I’m not confident that our boosters will be able to keep up in protecting against infection with the rate of Omicron mutating. (Protection against severe disease is much higher and wanes slower: 90% effectiveness against hospitalization 2-4 weeks after a booster → 70% 6 months after a booster.)(UK Health Security Agency: Source Here)
Severe disease
There are a whole host of reasons why infections are not great, but reducing severe disease is one of our main priorities. In South Africa, the BA.4/5 wave contributed to excess deaths, but the rate diminishes with every wave since winter 2021. In Europe, Portugal is the BA.4/5 leader, with 70% of COVID-19 cases accounting for this new variant. With one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, they largely escaped death from Delta. However, now, after recently reaching their BA.4/5 case peak, excess mortality hit the highest level since their vaccination campaign began.
In Portugal, increase in hospitalizations is occurring mainly in people over 60 years old.
In fact, in a recent analysis, unvaccinated people over 80 had a case fatality rate (CFR) of 9.5% (see figure below). Among those with only the primary vaccine series, CFR is 5%; among those with a booster, it is 1.7%.(Source Here)
This is likely due to two things:
Waning immunity. While Portugal does have a higher booster rate than the U.S., it isn’t perfect. Some people’s protection against severe disease could be waning, especially among those who are not up to date with COVID-19 vaccine.
Transmissibility. Vaccines are not perfect, and if we have a virus burning through a population, it can still cause high levels of death among vulnerable pockets, like the elderly.The verdict is still out as to whether BA.4/5 is more severe.
A recent preprint found that BA.4/5 was more severe for hamsters. In fact, their data suggested that BA.4/5 was going into the lungs more. (Initially, Omicron largely moved disease out of the lungs, which helped it become less severe).
Importantly, though, this wasn’t the case using human sera. More research is certainly needed. BA.4/5 hospitalizations are now making headway in other European countries.
The figure from Financial Times clearly shows the global upswing in hospitalizations as BA.4/5 entered the scene. But, so far, remains much lower than previous peaks.
United States So where does this leave us in the U.S.? BA.4/5 makes up 35% of new infections and is growing quickly.
Unfortunately, patterns in South Africa and Europe won’t tell us much about how things will unfold in the U.S. because we just had a very infectious variant moving through (BA.2.12.1). Other countries did not experience this. We know BA.4/5 is more transmissible than BA.2.12.1, but the epidemiological impact of that difference is not yet known.
This is why disease modelers are providing case projections for worse case (below left) and best case scenarios (below right) for cases.(Twitter JP Weiland)
On a population level, we expect our complex history of infection- and vaccination-induced immunity to continue to protect against severe disease.
In fact, it’s reassuring that all-cause mortality in the U.S. reached pre-pandemic levels from March-May 2022. Death certificates are lagged, so I’ll be curious to see if and how excess deaths changed in the past two months during our latest wave.
It will also be important to track this by age, particularly among elderly, to ensure we don’t leave people behind in the wake of highly transmissible variants.(CDC)
Bottom line
This virus continues to mutate to escape our first line of defense causing (re)infections. If you don’t want to get sick, it’s time to leverage other layers of protection, like masking.
Thankfully, other immune system mechanisms continue to work to reduce severe disease. The transmissibility of the virus is causing upswings of hospitalizations and deaths among the most vulnerable of our populations.
We aren’t out of the woods yet but we are inching closer and closer to a manageable virus.
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, biostatistician, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank, and at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions.
PHOTOGRAPH OF THE DAY:Preparing Loucks Field for White Plains Middle and High School Graduations this Week.
WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. June 21, 2022:
Good morning from White Plains New York USA where it’s 59 wpcnr degrees.
Yesterday school maintenance workers were setting up the long rows of white chairs on beautiful Loucks Field in preparation for the middle school and high school graduations this week.
The perfect rows of over 550 seats shown spectacularly in late afternoon sun. Just as the graduates hold the future of this country and the hope it has held aloft to the world for the last 246 years.
It crosses my mind that in our town and towns big and small across the land this week perhaps today’s graduates are the most important graduates in many years. Arguably, they are one of the toughest classes of graduates in a long time.
As Pomp and Circumstance, the march that opens every graduation, starts I hope this graduation will send a different message deliver a different theme not of pursuing dreams and success and you can do everything. This week’s speakers need to give them a mission like no other.
The graduates have come through three years of at-home remote learning, the isolation of not seeing their friends, the alienation of mask-wearing and negative vibes from persons not wearing masks and persons wearing them feel towards each other.
They have not been able to enjoy class learning in the traditional way socially distanced in class rooms. Imagine not being able to pass notes in class – not being able to sit next to your friends in study hall trying to crack up your old buddy Chuck Cannizzaro—a great old friend of mine –with jokes to get him thrown out of study hall – singing songs in the hall… and of course seeing a teacher with a mask on… that was not the typical school experience.
One student at a recent library event described this was were first year back in high school and how traumatic it was getting reacquainted in a real high school environment for the first time. These graduates of 2022 have had to be tougher then the millions of graduates before them. and they face a big challenge in the state of this county, state and every state in this country all at odds with one another..
I cannot stress how important it is that the graduation addresses of the Valedictorians and student leaders and academic speech makers be different. The well-wishes and laudatories should address the need these graduates have to be coached to a different level of qualities as they head into colleges, jobs in the community and a cruel environment their wages cannot handle.
The message need to deliver not just the need to do well and follow their dreams. (For many their dreams are harder than ever to achieve.)
The sages on the stage need to raise the level of challenge: emphasize to the Classes of 2022 to spread the message of respect for working together with one another to heal and advance the legacy america has in world history.
This nation saved the world three times in the last century with the blood of graduates no older than those graduating this week.
This nation found a vaccine for the greatest plague since the Black Death and the influenza of 1918. Discovered the polio vaccine. The smallpox vaccine. Revolutionized medicine. Advanced communications exponentially to bring the world closer together, and sadly provided the means to tear the world apart.
Today’s messages to graduates and the hearts of parents in the stands I hope will find the inspiration and realism to lay out the path for these graduates who must follow for the sake of lives throughout the world and have the courage to follow — a path of respect, doing what is right in the eyes of God that Voice in your Head you always hear that always shows you what to do, and tells you when you are doing wrong.
If the graduates do not hear that message the mission they have: bringing not the attitude of selfishness and person success but being big brave responsible persons very very quickly to bring healing, health hope and direction to make us all united and respectful of one another as Americans first together.
The Graduates of 2022 have a huge burden on their shoulders.
They are the last hope as are the Graduates of 2023, 2024, 2025 and beyond.
Looking at the past, but learning from it.
Building back the nation one person at a time until America the Beautiful is Beautiful once more.
E pluribus unum
OUT OF ONE, MANY.
And when they have finished their never-ending mission to build us back one person at a time they can look back with pride.
One significant effect of Pomp and Circumstance is its sound of always marching foreward as its strains wash across the field, filling parrents with tears and the sounds of their children leaving them taking new steps without them, hoping for the best, but worrying, always worrying about them. Will they be happy? Will they do better than I have?
For the graduates, the cadence and relentless crescendos and refrains of Pomp and Circumstance beckon and present the challenge of the unknown life ahead, intimidating and commending just the same.
These graduates of 2022 if the messages are right will know what their mission is in their behavior, their challenges and know what must be done. Kids always see the truth.
If the new generation of graduates succeeds, there will be a different nastalgia, a looking back that will be filled with pride and new hope and achievement.
As we salute the graduates and bade you our prayers we know you have to do the job we have failed to do.
Please pick up the pieces for us. When they do, the graduates of today and future will look back at the job they did with a melancholy and a sense of achievement
Chuck Berry captured this melancholy in his record Oh Baby Doll.
Oh baby doll, when bells ring out the summer free Oh baby doll, will it end for you and me? We’ll sing the old alma mater And think of things that used to be
