JUNE 9 YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST ON DISEASE TRENDS

Posted on June 9, 2025 by John Bailey

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Covid still quiet, measles, ticks, smoke, EMTALA, and seed oil confusion

The Dose: June 9 (REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION)

Katelyn Jetelina

Jun 9

Happy Monday! Covid-19 remains mostly quiet (for now), but measles, ticks, and wildfire smoke are ramping up quickly.

At the same time, falsehoods are clouding the facts on abortion care and infant formula. Calling this information landscape “confusing” doesn’t quite do it justice.

Let’s break it down.

First, good news! A new class of antibiotics is here.

For the first time in nearly 30 years, the FDA has approved a brand-new class of antibiotics to treat urinary tract infections—a breakthrough in the fight against antibiotic resistance.

The new drug, Blujepa, works differently than older antibiotics like penicillin or nitrofurantoin, which target cell walls or protein production. Instead, it blocks two enzymes E. coli needs to replicate.

More than 2.8 million antimicrobial-resistant infections occur in the U.S. each year, so this new class is promising because bacteria haven’t built up resistance to it.

In clinical trials, it cleared infections in up to 58% of cases, slightly outperforming the standard drug (44%). It’s also safe, with mild but some uncomfortable side effects, including diarrhea (16%) and nausea (9%).

It’s expected to be available by the end of the year, though the price hasn’t been disclosed yet. The research was partially funded by BARDA, the federal agency that supports medical countermeasures for public health threats.

Latest disease trends

Covid-19 is still quiet overall.

Emergency room visits for Covid-19 are starting to tick up in Hawaii and, if you squint, in places like Florida. YLE has also heard more anecdotal reports lately (sometimes an early signal of a wave), but wastewater levels remain low across most of the country.

That said, the U.S. has had a summer wave every year for the past five years, and other countries are seeing upticks, so we still think one is coming. A newer variant, NB.1.1, was recently detected. Time will tell if it has enough “oomph” to create a wave.

Those over age 65 are still eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine every 6 months. Sticking to that schedule is still a good idea.

% ED visits with Covid-19 in Hawaii over time. Data: CDC; Annotations: YLE

Measles cases continue to pop up.

The outbreaks in Montana (19 cases and two hospitalizations) and North Dakota (34 total cases and two hospitalizations) continue to grow. Almost all cases are unvaccinated, school-aged children.
With an uptick in travel during summer, more measles cases will come. In Colorado, an infected person on a Turkish Airlines flight is now linked to 7 cases, all in unvaccinated individuals. Four people were passengers on the May 13 flight, and three were infected at the airport. The incubation period for that flight is now over, so hopefully we don’t see many more cases.
The Southwest outbreak has dramatically slowed down, with fewer and fewer cases in Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Below is a “bell-shaped curve” showing the deceleration nicely. Measles is likely running out of infection pathways (due to vaccination efforts or people getting infected.)

Weekly cases from Southwest Measles Outbreak. Figure from Yale SITREP.

The U.S. is on track (1,173 cases today) to exceed its 30-year high for measles cases (1,274) within two to three weeks.

It’s the dead middle of tick season.

Emergency visits for tick bites have reached 107 per 100,000 weekly, but trends are coming down, hopefully for the year.

Not every tick you encounter will give you a disease (depends on several factors), but the highest risk of Lyme disease is in the Northeast and Midwest. To protect against ticks, cover up with light clothing, use an EPA-registered insect repellent, and remember to do a tick check.

Source: CDC

Wildfire smoke returns

Smoke from Canadian wildfires (over 200) has reached the Upper Midwest and Northeast, including New York.

The heaviest smoke was in northern areas closest to Canada, but extended to Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina.
Air quality alerts range daily, but last week, “unhealthy” or “very unhealthy” levels reached Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Omaha.

Air quality levels. Source: CBS News, June 8 12pm PT.

Recent research showed that exposure to lingering wildfire particles, even three months after a fire, can increase cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalization risks.

Check your local air quality index here. It’s also on your phone’s weather app.

If you’re high risk (pregnant, older, immunocompromised, or have chronic conditions), take precautions when the AQI is yellow.
If you’re not high risk, start acting when it’s red.

Stay indoors, drive with windows closed, and wear an N95 or P100 mask outside (surgical masks won’t help here). Afterwards, be sure to replace your house’s air conditioning filter.

EMTALA and abortion: white noise

EMTALA is the law that requires hospitals to provide emergency care, including abortion, to save a mother’s life. In 2022, the Biden administration reinforced the guidance of EMTALA. Last week, the Trump administration revoked that reinforcement.

This prompted a flood of headlines suggesting emergency abortions might no longer be legal. But the law itself didn’t change. A memo doesn’t override a federal statute, like EMTALA.

Doctors are still legally obligated to provide life-saving emergency abortion care.

Even in states with strict bans, every state still has an exception to protect the life of the mother. Dr. Jeremy Faust sat down with Dr. Dara Kass of FemInEM and Prof. Elizabeth Sepper of UW Law and highlighted this and another important takeaway:

This EMTALA memo distracts from a different, critical fight: if Medicaid is cut, many people will lose access to miscarriage and elective abortion care. Medicaid covers 41% of births (per 2023 KFF data). A subset of those births do not go as planned, risking the lives of the mother and child. Medicaid covers the resulting emergency care.

Confusion is becoming its own kind of danger. Doctors and hospitals may not know what’s legal, and patients may be less likely to seek care at all.

FDA commissioner led parents astray on seed oils in infant formulas

Last week, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary claimed on TV that seed oils in infant formula cause “general body inflammation”.

That’s… not true.

Seed oils are in the formula but for an important reason: they provide linoleic acid, an essential fatty acid supporting infant development.

Their little bodies cannot develop this independently, so they need it from breast milk or formula. High-quality research doesn’t show that seed oils cause inflammation. For a YLE deep dive into the nuance behind seed oils and inflammation (and more), go here.

Baby formulas are safe to use. Rumors like this can lead parents astray, leading to the risk DIY formulas. Katelyn explained this in a social media video last week.

Question grab bag

It was wonderful to “see” many of you in last week’s live YLE Q&A chat! Katelyn tried to answer as many questions as possible. Here’s one: “Will normal people (not at risk) be able to get a Covid-19 vaccine this fall?”

Short answer: The U.S. doesn’t know yet.

The CDC’s expert advisory group (ACIP) meets June 25–27 and should give some clarity. But, even after that, big unknowns remain, including:

How the FDA updates vaccine licenses
Whether formulas will change (which may require new trials)
How RFK Jr. will wield his authority as HHS Secretary

We’ll keep you posted, but we likely won’t know much until closer to the fall season. For now, confusion seems to be the default setting.

In case you missed it:

YLE New York edition covered everything from wildfire smoke, to the new Covid variant detected in the NY airport, and New York fish contamination.
Katelyn joined Katie Couric to discuss Covid-19 vaccines, disease trends, and the dramatic cuts to scientific research.
Deep dive: What’s the deal with seed oils?
Deep dive: Bite-sized threats of ticks

You’re all caught up! Have a great week.

Love,

The YLE team

Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is a public health newsletter with one goal: to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people feel well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is owned and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina— an epidemiologist. This is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:

JUNE 9– YOUR NEW MONTHLY HEALTH BILL PREVIEW IF RECONCILIATION BILL PASSED

Posted on June 9, 2025 by John Bailey

GOVERNOR HOCHUL UNVEILS NEW DATA SHOWING MASSIVE INCREASES TO NEW YORKERS’ MONTHLY HEALTH INSURANCE PREMIUMS IF GOP’S RECONCILIATION BILL BECOMES LAW

More Than 240,000 New Yorkers Would Experience Increased Premiums From Elimination of American Rescue Plan Enhanced Tax Credits and Additional Changes

Average Monthly Costs Could Rise by More Than $228 — an Increase of 38% for a Couple — Due to Elimination of Enhanced Tax Credits

Estimated 65,000 to 80,000 New Yorkers, Approximately One Third of Enrollees, Could Lose Individual Marketplace Coverage

Regional Breakdown Of Cost Increases Available Here; Congressional District Breakdown Available Here

Governor Kathy Hochul today released new data showing the massive impact the GOP’s ‘Big Ugly’ Reconciliation Bill would have on New York families. The latest bill threatens to severely disrupt health coverage for millions of New Yorkers. In addition to increasing the number of uninsured by 1.5 million and stripping $13.5 billion in annual funding from New York’s healthcare system, the bill would trigger steep increases in private health insurance premiums for vulnerable New Yorkers and impose excessive burdens on consumers enrolling through NY State of Health, the State’s official health plan marketplace.

“The GOP’s Big Ugly bill would slash health care coverage for millions of New Yorkers and raise monthly costs by hundreds of dollars,” Governor Hochul said. “If New York’s Republican delegation won’t stand up for their own constituents, I will.”

Health care providers, insurers and state leaders across the country are sounding the alarm over the proposed legislation, which would slash billions in federal health care support. In addition to jeopardizing and in some cases entirely eliminating coverage for New York’s 1.6 million Essential Plan enrollees, the bill would trigger steep increases in costs for many New Yorkers who purchase private health insurance. The elimination of American Rescue Plan enhanced premium tax credits, alone, will increase net cost of coverage across the State by an average of 38 percent for 140,000 low-income individuals and families purchasing plans through the state’s marketplace. This equates to an increase in cost of $114 per month for an individual and $228 per month for a couple.

See below for a summary of expected premium increases due to the elimination of American Rescue Plan enhanced premium tax credits across the State:

Region	Average Monthly Cost Increase For a Couple ($)	Average Monthly Cost Increase For a Couple (%)
New York City	$211	38%
Mid-Hudson	$206	31%
Long Island	$219	32%
Capital Region	$231	33%
Western New York	$267	38%
Central New York	$256	43%
Finger Lakes	$248	42%
Mohawk Valley	$270	49%
Southern Tier	$265	48%
North Country	$253	44%
Statewide	$228	38%

The combined impact of the elimination of enhanced premium tax credits and additional provisions of the proposed U.S. House Republican reconciliation bill will push more healthy consumers out of the insurance market, leaving behind a less healthy population and driving further rate increases. This cycle will result in spiraling insurance costs and lack of access to coverage for individuals and families.

New York State Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said,

“The proposed cuts to federal health care support hurt everyone. These cuts take health insurance away from working New Yorkers. They undermine the progress we’ve made in providing affordable and accessible health insurance to New Yorkers. When people lose health insurance, they risk going without needed health care or suffering financial hardship.”

In addition to increasing premiums for low-income individuals and families who qualify for tax credits, it is estimated that the elimination of those tax credits will increase insurance rates for the more than 100,000 New Yorkers who purchase coverage in the individual commercial market but do not qualify for tax credits. Insurers have estimated that those consumers and families will face a 4.3 percent increase in their insurance rates next year solely due to the elimination of these credits.

Early estimates also indicate the proposed bill could result in 65,000 to 80,000 people — approximately one-third of enrollees in the individual market — losing their coverage. Many more consumers will experience significant new red tape that will make it harder to enroll in and renew coverage.

The proposed bill would also strip New York of its flexibility and autonomy in running its own marketplace and serving the needs of its residents, imposing onerous and costly new administrative burdens on the State. The State anticipates more than $10 million in new administrative costs to implement the changes required by the bill.

NY State of Health Executive Director Danielle Holahan said,

“We have tremendous concerns about the compounding effects of this bill especially when combined with the expiration of the premium tax credits. Reducing eligibility for the financial assistance that helps New Yorkers afford care means people end up paying more for doctor visits, medications, and mental health care. Already struggling providers, especially in rural parts of the state, might not be able to sustain operations under this proposal, further restricting New Yorkers’ access to care.”

New York has had tremendous success over the past 12 years in operating its marketplace — with 6.7 million individuals currently enrolled in coverage — and has achieved a statewide uninsured rate of less than 5 percent, the lowest rate amongst large states across the country. This bill would reverse decades of progress in expanding coverage and making health care more affordable and accessible in New York and jeopardize the health of consumers across the State.

JUNE 7—-CONGRESSMAN LATIMER FIRST BILL PASSED

Posted on June 7, 2025 by John Bailey

Dear Neighbor,

It has been a busy week with a lot of work on issues relating to my membership on the Small Business Committee. This week I want to recognize Gun Violence Prevention Week. Today is Wear Orange Day to honor Hadiya Pendleton, who marched in President Obama’s second inaugural parade in 2013 and was killed by gun violence a week later. Many of you may be familiar with my track record on gun violence prevention as a County Executive, including ending gun shows on County property and creating a Gun Violence Prevention Committee. Now as a member of Congress, I will hold firm on those same principles to keep our communities safe.

I would also like to recognize LGBTQI+ Pride Month. No matter who you are or who you love, you deserve to live a full life without discrimination or bigotry. This month we celebrate the progress we have made and stand with the LGBTQI+ community that is facing increased attacks and threats. I am a proud member of the Congressional Equality Caucus, and will continue to work with them to protect our LGBTQI+ neighbors.

Small Business Actions

My first bill, the bipartisan Transparency and Predictability in Small Business Opportunities Act, passed the House unanimously on Tuesday. This is a small but important fix that will provide small businesses with some predictability when they are applying for federal contracts. Small business owners are often resource constrained. It can be confusing and deeply frustrating for a small business owner if a federal agency decides to cancel a solicitation without transparency into why that decision has been made. If we are serious about bringing more small businesses into federal contracting, we must ensure that business owners have confidence and trust in their federal partners.

Last year, the Small Business Committee heard testimony from a small business owner that said solicitation proposals can cost a small business upwards of $10,000 worth of labor to draft, develop, review, and execute. With that in mind, it can be rightfully frustrating for a small business owner if a federal agency decides to cancel a solicitation without transparency into why that decision has been made. You can watch my floor remarks here.

On Wednesday, I questioned Small Business Administration (SBA) Administrator Kelly Loeffler about several of the Trump Administration’s policies. I asked the Administrator questions I have heard directly from local Chambers of Commerce and small business owners, and I didn’t get much clarity. Small business owners regularly ask me about current tariffs rates, and I asked if SBA will include that information on its website. I was given a non-answer. If I can’t get a question answered in a Congressional hearing, how is a small business expected to get clarity on all of these moving parts? This is very frustrating for small business owners who are worried about their bottom line and facing an uncertain economy. You can watch our exchange here.

This week the House also debated the Save SBA from Sanctuary Cities Act, which would close and relocate SBA regional offices if a city or county has been deemed a “sanctuary jurisdiction.” The SBA, under the Trump Administration, plans to close the regional office in Federal Plaza in Manhattan, and move it further away on Long Island. As the former Westchester County Executive, I was uniquely positioned to speak about how this will hurt small businesses in our district and around the country. You can watch my remarks on the House floor here.

Community Project Funding Priorities

This week I was announced my Community Project Funding (CPF) priorities for Fiscal Year 2026. This provides members with the opportunity to identify important local projects that would benefit from direct federal funding. Because the House Majority did not fund FY25 projects, I decided to resubmit the projects submitted last year by my predecessor. This is a wide-ranging list of deserving project proposals that will make life better for residents in our district. I will do all I can to advocate for them as the process moves forward.

The projects are:

Bronxville Stormwater and Crawford Drainage Improvement, Bronxville: The project encompasses the construction of stormwater channels and pipes to reduce recurrent flooding in residential neighborhoods and a local elementary school.
Forest Avenue Water Main Replacement Under I-87, Yonkers: The project will replace a cast iron drinking water main that will provide backup drinking water supply and fire protection to 5,000 residents and numerous commercial businesses.
Greenburgh East Rumbrook Park Expansion, Greenburgh: This project will allow for the construction of much-needed athletic fields, making usage of them less expensive for residents. And the construction of a universal park space to provide playground equipment for children with special needs.
Hastings-on-Hudson Stormwater Management, Hastings-on-Hudson: This project will improve water quality in the Saw Mill River, which is threatened by pollution and that empties into the Hudson River. The project will also reduce flooding in an area where frequent and severe storms threaten public and private property.
Highbrook Avenue Drainage Improvement Project, Pelham: This project would improve stormwater infrastructure that was inadequately installed in 1924 that remains inefficient at both managing and mitigating flooding.
Mamaroneck Town Safety and Economic Renaissance Roundabout Project, Mamaroneck: This project will reconstruct the congested Madison Avenue/New Jefferson Street/I-95 Exit 17 ramp intersection into a modern single-lane roundabout. This will improve traffic flow and improve pedestrian safety in support of broader economic development efforts.
Mount Vernon City Armory Preservation and Rehabilitation, Mount Vernon: This project will expand the city’s capacity to provide critical services by renovating the Mount Vernon Armory to create a state-of-the-art Community Wellness and Inclusion Center.
Mount Vernon Police Document Conversion Project, Mount Vernon: This project will convert over 1,000 personnel records, civilian complaints, and handwritten reports into digitized form to make them searchable and to comply with retention and reporting laws.
New Rochelle City Park Drainage Improvements, New Rochelle: This project will allow for the design and construction of drainage improvements at Flowers (City) Park to address extreme flooding experienced during recent storms.
New Rochelle Municipal Housing Authority, New Rochelle: The project will improve aging infrastructure and ADA compliance, and enhance living conditions for low-income residents at the Peter Bracey Apartments, a 100-unit public housing development.
Port Chester Village Hall Gymnasium Remodeling Project, Port Chester: This project will revitalize the currently abandoned Port Chester Gymnasium to create an indoor space with new multi-purpose rooms for community activities, and with the upgrades, the option for it to be used as an emergency shelter.
Tarrytown Benedict Avenue Sidewalk, Tarrytown: This project will fund an ADA-compliant sidewalk across a heavily trafficked stretch of Benedict Avenue, improving pedestrian safety and connectivity within the community.
Children’s Village Youth Violence Prevention and Deterrence Initiative, Valhalla: This project will allow for the advancement of prevention-first strategies that align with national juvenile justice reforms, promote community-based violence prevention, and improve mental and behavioral health access for young people.
Tuckahoe Depot Square and Main Street Sign Improvements, Tuckahoe: This project will update streetscape improvement at Depot Square in the Village and its surrounding areas.
Yonkers Warburton Avenue Slope Stabilization Project, Yonkers: This project will help stabilize the steep hillside west of Warburton Avenue. By stabilizing the slope, it will mitigate the recurrence of mudslides, prevent future Metro North blockages and the destabilization of residences and municipal infrastructure.

Submitting these projects to the House Appropriations Committee is the first step in the process. The Appropriations Committee will soon begin their process of crafting and debating funding bills. More information will be made available about which projects are included in the Appropriations bills in the coming months.

This week I spoke on the House floor about the recent antisemitic attacks in DC and Boulder. And how they are part of a terrifying rise in antisemitism in our country. You can watch the speech here.

At Home: Westchester and the Bronx

My stellar constituent services team has been at El Centro Hispano, the Mount Vernon Public Library and the Tuckahoe Public Library in the last two weeks, assisting residents with federal issues. I was glad to join them at El Centro Hispano and the Mount Vernon Public Library to speak directly with constituents and connect them with the services our office provides.

They will be at the Carver Center, 400 Westchester Avenue in Port Chester on Wednesday, June 11th from 1-5pm. More dates and locations will be announced soon.

In the last two weeks, I attended many events throughout the district, including those that commemorated Memorial Day in Yonkers and Co-op City, announcing funding for new housing projects in Yonkers, and celebrating the beginning of LGBTQI+ Pride Month in White Plains.

Floor Speeches

Social Post of the Week

Stay in Touch

Make sure to follow me on Instagram, Facebook, Bluesky, Twitter/X and YouTube to stay up-to-date on what I am working on. If this newsletter was sent to you by someone else, you can sign up for it here: https://latimer.house.gov/contact/newsletter-subscribe

As always, reach out to my offices with concerns or questions. We are here to serve you!

More soon.

Sincerely,