Hits: 285

A new variant: BA.2.86

by Dr. KATELYN JETELINA

AUG 22, 2023

(Reprinted with permission)

We have a new COVID-19 variant—BA.2.86—turning heads even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.

This is what we know, what we don’t know, and what’s likely next.

What is happening?

SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate.

This is expected, as this is what viruses do to survive. There was ~20% possibility of another “Omicron-like event” in 2023. Since Omicron arrived on the scene in November 2021, we’ve only seen incremental changes, which have created a ladder-like pattern (see panel A below). This is a good thing—we wanted Omicron to mutate because then we can predict where it’s going (for vaccines and our immunity, for example).

However, BA.2.86 doesn’t follow the ladder-like pattern. It has so many changes at once that it seems to come out of nowhere (see Panel B above). The virus likely mutated over time in one immunocompromised individual and then jumped to others.

Why is there concern?

As of now, we’ve only seen 7 cases in 4 countries. Usually, this isn’t enough to warrant concern, but some details are noteworthy:

• Mutations. The new variant has 35 mutations on the spike protein relative to what is currently circulating. (We pay attention to the spike protein because it’s the key to our cells.) This is an insane amount of change at once; it’s as big of an evolutionary jump as Wuhan → Omicron.

  

• Community-level transmission. 6 cases are without travel history (and 1 U.S. case was a traveler from Japan). There is vast geographical distribution of the cases identified (Israel, the U.S., Denmark, and the U.K.). And we are seeing BA.2.86 in country-level wastewater samples (without corresponding reported cases). All of these point to undetected community transmission—it’s spreading.

  

• Rapid spread. The 7 sequences are very similar, which means this variant hasn’t had time to change. In other words, it’s spreading quickly.

What do we not know?

A lot.

Genetic surveillance is down 90%. Only 9,757 COVID-19 sequences were uploaded to the public database last week, compared to 137,878 for Omicron’s first week. In other words, we are searching in the dark.

On an immunologic level, it will take weeks to understand what these new mutations mean or, more importantly, what the combination of mutations means. Some labs, like those in Denmark, are already at work. In the meantime, we have a few educated guesses:

• Immune escape. One U.S. lab found that BA.2.86 has 16 known mutations that significantly escape our front-line immunity—antibodies. In other words, this will likely infect many people, regardless of prior immunity.
• Severity. We don’t know if this is more severe than Omicron or Delta, but it’s probably about the same severity level.
• This is because SARS-CoV-2 has historically evolved to escape antibodies (first line of defense) rather than T-cells (second line of defense) that primarily protect us from severe disease.
• Transmissibility. There’s a ceiling to contagiousness. It’s hard to imagine BA.2.86 spreading much better than Omicron, but nothing is ruled out yet.

Epidemiologically, we don’t know whether this will cause a wave yet; it may be a dud. But with more cases, it becomes more likely. Again, we are flying blind. We don’t have testing or case data like we did 2 years ago.

There is good news.

• This is still COVID-19. We aren’t returning to March 2020; our immune systems will still recognize the highly mutated variant, albeit suboptimally. This will protect a lot of us from severe disease.
• We can detect BA.2.86 on a PCR.
• Usually a swab has to go to a special lab for genome sequencing to know which variant caused the infection. However, BA.2.86 has a unique signal on the PCR directly—when positive, it lights up two channels instead of three. This is fantastic news because it means we can track this virus much easier and more quickly worldwide. CDC is doing this right now.
• Scientists are on top of it. While much of the public has moved on, public health is still working just as hard. WHO and CDC announced last week that they are monitoring this variant. U.K. came out with a fantastic risk assessment on Friday.

What’s next?

We are at the mercy of time to see what this variant does. Like a hurricane, we don’t know if it will fizzle away, become a category 5 disaster, or somewhere in between.

Regardless, our next moves include:

• WHO will determine if this is a new variant of concern—the highest risk classification. If so, it will be assigned a Greek name; next in line is “Pi.”
• Scientists are actively trying to understand how our immune systems react to BA.2.86 and if this impacts “real world” patterns. Their results should be coming in a few weeks.
• Companies will confirm (or deny) whether our tools (like the vaccines, Paxlovid, and antigen tests) work against BA.2.86.

Bottom line

We have a new variant on the horizon. We are in a lull now, waiting for the virus’s next move and for science to answer some key questions. Things should become more clear in the next two weeks.

Love, YLE

---

“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

Subscribed

Hits: 274

IN ONE WEEK WHITE PLAINS HOSPITAL EXPERIENCES 59 ADMISSIONS (81%)OF 72 ADMITTED ALSO HAVE COVID

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY COVID TRACKER. Observations & Analysis By John F. Bailey. August 21, 2023.

Last week ended Saturday August 19 was the sixth week in a row that new covid cases in Westchester rose. A total of 451 new covid cases were reported by the New York State Health Department this morning through Saturday.

The county averaged 7.5 new  cases a day for those 7 days per 100,000 of population. Westchester has 1,004,000 people. Multiply 7.5 by 10.004  and we find the county saw  75 new cases a day (lab-verified).

That is a new case  growth last week of 527 a week, or 2, 108 for the month of August pace.  So far in August, Westchester has seen 1,313 new cases of covid. In three weeks This means 423 new cases in the first week of August have spread covid to  at least 3 other persons.

Covid testing labs have done 3,874 tests of persons seeking lab confirmation of their covid positives. That means the county is only doing about 553 lab confirmation tests a day.

When you consider that Westchester has a  1,00,4,000 population and an average positive rate of lab covid tests conducted last week of 10.9%,, I believe this means there are a lot more covid positives out there socializing, going to work, going to entertainments, the beach, pools. Many of them are not practicing social distancing  or at the very least getting a lab test to confirm they are not positive, the spread of covid cases maybe 10.9% of the County population right now. Ten percent of 1,004,000 ( the county population is  100,000 people with covid.

I have pointed out before that if you were testing 2,500 to 3,000 Westchesterites a day  as the county was doing in  August 2022 a year ago this wek you might find at a 10% positive rate, that would produce 300 a day. New cases but last week we had 451 new cases. So obviously there’s a lot more “spreading” going on.

The policy of antigen home testing has created a situation where persons testing positive are not making sure or not wanting to believe they are positive for possibility of quarantining  or losing work days.

Until testing is reinstalled at restaurants, venues,  workplaces, entertainment, the disease will continue to grow. This will happen big time in September when schools reopen. Vaccinations & boosters for covid  available for students age appropriate  must be brought up to date otherwise with August 2023 on track to deliver a possible 2,108 new cases for the month, and who knows how many in the school population have covid now. No one knows.

The failure to monitor and report covid cases in the schools at the beginning of the last school year that was lifted by the State Education Department was not wise.

All school districts are in the dark as to what they can expect by the little reported rise in covid over the last 6 weeks.

Last September in 2022, in Westchester County, 3,546 covid cases reported in September, after covid vaccinations had reduced cases last August by 40% to 6,325 from 10,398 in July 22

What will the cases run this September?, I believe we are in for a very unhealthy situation. It is imperative testing resume in the schools as a precautionary measure to prevent spreading of covid because of the rise infections obvious in August which may  be possibly disasterously undercounted by state policy towards the disease.

How bad is the spread? People are not afraid of it or being careful.

Another factor, the midweek number of positives is growing strong.

Last week in the County the numbers Sunday through Saturday mounted in midweek. Sunday (40)  Monday(78), Tuesday (86), Wednesday (92–highest single day since med-February), Thursday (69), Friday (89) and Saturday (60)

White Plains Hospital Medical Center last week of 75 persons admitted to beds in White Plains Hospital,it was found 81% had covid in addition to the condition they were admitted.

Hits: 327

Post this link to your browser to see the highlights of the July 17 Forum at White Plains Library on racism, hate incidents in schools and anti-semitism in Westchester Schools, organized by NY State Senator Shelley Mayer. Video by John Bailey at the scene.

http://www.wpcommunitymedia.org/people-to-be-heard/07272023-507

Hits: 0

JOHN BAILEY INTERVIEWS ASSEMBLYMAN BURDICK  ON ALBANY ISSUES AHEAD:

ENERGY, INFLATION, GOVERNOR’S POWER TO CALL AN EMERGENCY, AID TO EDUCATION STABILITY AND MORE

Hits: 656

WHITE PLAINS, NY, August 16, 2023 –From United Way. (Edited)

The White Plains community resource center for United Way’s 211 Helpline, which serves the Hudson Valley, Long Island, and Adirondack regions, has reported a 20 percent surge in call volume from January to June 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

Of the call increase, there is a rise in calls related to income support (up 39%), food insecurity (up 37%), transportation (up 71%), and employment (up 27%). These increases continue the unprecedented increase in call volume, which began during the pandemic and continued throughout 2021 and 2022.

As the economic landscape shifts, more individuals and families are contacting 211 to access information and assistance in these critical areas. The dedicated team of call specialists at the White Plains community resource center has worked tirelessly to address each caller’s needs with empathy, professionalism, and a commitment to finding the best possible solutions.

This upswing in calls underscores the critical role that 211 plays as a lifeline for community members seeking essential support and resources.

The 211 Helpline is a crucial hub for connecting individuals and families in need with vital social services and resources, serving as a one-stop destination for information on housing, healthcare, food assistance, employment opportunities, and more. The notable increase in call volume reflects the evolving and pressing needs of communities across the region, especially amid ongoing challenges.

From left to right: Cassandra Rajcumar, 211 Director of Programs and Services; State Senator Peter Harckham, UWWP President and CEO Tom Gabriel, NYS Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart Cousins, United Way’s Chief Information and Referral Officer Lini Jacob, and Rachel Estroff, Chief of Staff for State Senator Shelly Mayer.

“We are seeing a clear reflection of the dynamic nature of community needs through the rise in calls to our White Plains 211 Helpline community resource center,” said Lini Jacob, (second frrom right, above)United Way’s Chief Information and Referral Officer who manages the White Plains 211 Helpline community resource center.

“This increase is a testament to the essential role that 211 plays in connecting individuals with the resources they require to overcome challenges and improve their quality of life.”

The White Plains community resource center’s ability to efficiently handle the increased call volume can be attributed to its dedicated staff, robust technology infrastructure, and strong partnerships with local organizations, government agencies, and service providers. Together, they form a united front in the fight against food insecurity, financial instability, and other pressing issues facing our communities.

The 211 Helpline in New York State is a public-private partnership. It is funded by New York State, local municipalities, and a third by local United Ways. This year the NYS Legislature awarded $2.4 million to the state’s 211 Helpline network to ensure that these community resource centers continue to connect individuals with health and human service needs to the right resources.

Senator Peter Harckham (District 40), (second from left in above photo) representing communities in Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess counties, sponsored the bill into the budget.

“211 is the ultimate example of shared services and public-private partnerships,” said Sen. Harckham. “It is a good investment of public dollars to make sure that someone is there to assist those in need to find the government services and nonprofit assistance available. COVID and other recent natural disasters, such as the flooding caused by Hurricane Ida, also showed how important 211 is to local and state governments for responding to disasters and emergencies.”

As the 211 Helpline continues to be a beacon of hope for those seeking assistance, it stands as a reminder that we are stronger when we come together to support one another. The White Plains community resource center remains committed to serving as a dependable resource, guiding callers toward the help they need during times of uncertainty.

The 211 Helpline is available 24/7 by dialing 211 or visiting 211hudsonvalley.org. You can also text your zip code to 898211 to text with a community specialist between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. Monday through Friday.