SEPTEMBER 23 — ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS OUT TO GET YOU: ARE YOU A FUTURE VICTIM OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO COME? THE MOST LIKE WORKERS TO BE ELIMINATED BY CORPORATE EMBRACE OF ARITIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ANALYTICAL CAPABILITIES AND PERFORMANCE.

Posted on September 23, 2025 by John Bailey

WPCNR DATA AT LARGE. Printed with permission FROM Elevate-UK https://elevate.uk/

Elliott Mueller, CEO of Elevate-UK Comments,

“AI’s rapid advancement is reshaping the workforce, particularly in roles involving repetitive tasks. While automation offers efficiency, it also presents challenges for millions facing job displacement.

It’s crucial for businesses and policymakers to prioritize reskilling and create pathways that help workers transition into roles where human skills remain essential.”

Data entry clerks face the highest risk of complete replacement by AI by 2030, with a 95% likelihood of AI automation.
Clerical roles are among the most vulnerable, with six jobs facing an average AI automation risk of 80%, according to GPT-5 estimates.
One of the more unexpected roles facing automation is that of legal assistants, with an estimated 88% likelihood of being replaced by AI.

By 2030, up to 30% of all jobs worldwide are at risk of being transformed or replaced by AI and automation, signaling a major shift in the future of work.

A new study by Elevate analyzed 26 job titles across different sectors to identify the roles that will be fully AI-only by 2030.

The research evaluated the likelihood of a role being taken over by AI, the projected growth by 2030 to understand market availability, and risk estimations by GPT-5.

Jobs involving repetitive, rule-based tasks show higher automation risk, while those requiring creativity or human judgment appear less vulnerable.

These key factors were combined into an AI-only risk score, ranking the jobs most at risk of being fully automated in the next five years.

Here is the summary of the findings:

Job Title	AI Automation RIsk	Projected Job Growth (by 2030)	Risk Estimation by GPT 5	AI-Only Risk Score
Data entry clerk	95%	-25.00%	95%	100
Telemarketer	94%	-21.50%	85%	92
Cashiers	93%	-10.60%	75%	79
Receptionist	91%	-0.50%	80%	71
Billing clerk	89%	0.50%	80%	69
Legal assistant	88%	1.20%	75%	66
Admin assistant	83%	-0.30%	80%	66
Proofreader	85%	-3.40%	70%	65
Production workers	89%	0.60%	70%	65
Customer service representative	76%	-5.00%	75%	62
Human Resources Assistants	73%	-4.80%	65%	56

Data entry clerks have the highest risk of full AI replacement by 2030, with a perfect AI-only risk score of 100. Both AI automation risk and GPT-5 estimate this probability at 95%, showing clear vulnerability. The job is also set to decline the most in growth, dropping by 25% in the next five years.

Telemarketers follow in second, with an AI-only risk score of 92. The chance of automation is estimated at 94%, placing it just one percentage point behind data entry clerks. The role faces the second-largest decline in job growth, projected to fall by 21% over the next five years. GPT-5 also views the job as highly replaceable, estimating an 85% likelihood of automation.

Cashiers come in third for jobs most likely to be fully controlled by AI by 2030, with an AI automation risk of 93%. GPT-5 estimates a 75% likelihood of automation, highlighting the role’s high exposure. Job growth is expected to fall by 11% over the next five years, which ultimately contributes to its AI-only risk score of 79.

Receptionists take fourth place, carrying an AI-only risk score of 71. GPT-5 predicts an 80% chance of automation, five percentage points higher than cashiers. Other estimates put the risk even higher, at 91%, reflecting the growing AI threat. A decline in job growth is likely a factor, as it is anticipated to fall by 0.5% in the following 5 years.

Billing clerks round out the top five most vulnerable jobs to AI, with an AI-only risk score of 69. GPT-5 assigns billing clerks the same 80% automation likelihood as receptionists. Other estimates place the risk higher, predicting an 89% chance of AI takeover, nearly 10 points above GPT-5’s estimate.

Legal assistants come in sixth as the jobs most likely to be AI-only by 2030. Just one percentage point behind production workers, legal assistants face an AI automation risk of 88%. New GPT model estimates legal assistants are more vulnerable than production workers, at 75%, 5 points higher. These combined lead to an AI-only risk score of 66.

Admin assistants tie with legal assistants with an AI-only score of 66. Their automation risk stands at 83%, influenced in part by declining job growth. Based on GPT’s assessment, admin assistants are 80% likely to be replaced by AI shortly, getting a 5 percent higher chance than legal assistants.

Proofreaders stand in eighth place among roles most likely to be replaced by AI by 2030, with a final score of 65. Tools like Grammarly are increasing this shift, contributing to an automation risk of 85%. These advancements have already affected workers, with job growth falling by 3.4%, twice the decline seen for legal assistants.

Production workers tie with proofreaders, sharing an AI-only risk score of 65. Though they hold the same score, their AI automation risk is higher at 89%, four percentage points more than proofreaders. GPT-5’s evaluation places the likelihood at 70%, identical to proofreaders.

Customer service comes in tenth in the ranking of jobs most at risk of AI automation by 2030, finishing off the list with a score of 62. AI automation risk stands at 76%, closely aligned with GPT-5’s estimate of 75%, matching cashiers. Job growth is projected to fall by 5%, marking the sharpest decline after cashiers.

SEPTEMBER 23–WESTCHESTER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3.8%in August

Posted on September 23, 2025 by John Bailey

The August 2025 unemployment rate for the Hudson Valley Region is 3.8 percent. Westchester unemployment rate was 3.7% according to the Department of Labor.

That is up from 3.5 percent in July 2025 and up from 3.7 percent in August 2024. In August 2025, there were 46,300 unemployed in the region, up from 43,600 in July 2025 and up from 45,000 in August 2024. Year-over-year in August 2025, labor force increased by 700 or 0.1 percent, to 1,226,700.

The Hudson Valley Region’s August 2025 unemployment rate (3.8 percent) is tied with the Long Island Region for the second lowest rate among the 10 labor market regions in New York State.

Capital Region 3.6 percent
Hudson Valley 3.8 percent
Long Island 3.8 percent
Central New York 4.0 percent
Finger Lakes 4.0 percent
Southern Tier 4.1 percent
Mohawk Valley 4.2 percent
North Country 4.3 percent
Western New York 4.3 percent
New York City 5.8 percent

In August 2025, the lowest unemployment rate within the region (3.3 percent) was recorded in Putnam County.

Putnam County 3.3 percent
Rockland County 3.6 percent
Dutchess County 3.7 percent
Sullivan County 3.7 percent
Westchester County 3.7 percent
Ulster County 4.0 percent
Orange County 4.3 percent

SEPTEMBER 23—FUGITIVE FROM JUSTICE, EXTRADITED TO WESTCHESTER, PLEADS GUILTY TO RAPE CHARGE AFTER ALMOST20 YEARS

Posted on September 23, 2025 by John Bailey

SUSAN CACACE
WESTCHESTER COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. – Westchester County District Attorney Susan Cacace announced that a fugitive from justice who absconded to Mexico after raping a young child over a decade ago has admitted to his criminal conduct.

Galo Herrera, 53, pleaded guilty Monday to one count of Rape in the First Degree, a class B felony, before Judge Maurice Dean Williams.

DA Cacace said:

“The defendant’s cowardly scheme to evade accountability, nearly 20 years in the making, could not outrun the long arm of the justice system. In the intervening years, this office never ceased working to secure his return to the

United States. I am hopeful this guilty plea will provide the victim with the closure she has long deserved.”

Between December 2006 and January 2007, the defendant forcibly raped a young child who was under the age of 13 years old at the time.

Herrera fled the jurisdiction before he could be apprehended on these charges.

In 2008, Herrera was indicted on one count of Predatory Sexual Assault Against a Child, a class A-II felony, two counts of Rape in the First Degree, a class B felony, and three counts of Endangering the Welfare of a Child, a class A misdemeanor.

He was extradited to Westchester earlier this year.

The case was investigated by the Mount Vernon Police Department, the Westchester DA’s Office and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The Westchester County Department of Labs and Research and the New York State Police Crime Lab were utilized in the course of the investigation.

The case was prosecuted by Senior Assistant District Attorney Charlotte Gudis.

SEPTEMBER 23– YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST DR. KATELYN JETELINA THE STATE OF HEALTH

Posted on September 23, 2025 by John Bailey

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Autism report prep, Covid peaking, bad ACIP headlines, falls and loneliness climbing, and more

The Dose (September 22)

Katelyn Jetelina and Hannah Totte, MPH

Sep 22

READ IN APP

Happy Monday! Time to buckle up for another week (yes, that’s the pep talk I give myself every Monday).

Covid-19 levels may have peaked, but the messy ACIP vaccine headlines haven’t.
This week will bring new headlines too, with RFK Jr.’s promised autism report expected to surface—

I’ll get you ready for that. Plus: why falls among older adults are rising, and why loneliness

is climbing among young people. Finally, a question from the YLE community about accessing

Covid-19 vaccines at pharmacies.

Plenty to cover, but all tied back to what it means for you.

Infectious disease “weather” report

Covid-19’s summer wave has peaked. Wastewater, ER visits, and positive tests are all declining

across the country. This surge was about the same size as last winter’s, but smaller than last summer’s, largely because no dramatically new variant emerged. The virus is still mutating, but in small steps rather than big leaps. We’ll see what this winter has in store

when Covid waves usually begin in mid-November.

Source: CDC; Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist

RSV and flu: Not too much stirring, yet.

Rhinovirus and enterovirus—also known as the common cold (gray line below)— continue to climb.

In other words, there are a whole lot of people with stuffy noses and feeling crappy right now.

Source: NRVESS

What does it mean for you? If you’re sick right now, it’s probably still Covid-19 or the common cold.

When should you get your vaccines? Catch the breakdown here. Also, here’s how (and how not to)

boost your immune system backed by science.

Confusing Covid-19 headlines

One of the quickest ways to drive down vaccine uptake is through confusing—or flat-out wrong—

headlines. Especially now that we are all living headline to headline, trying to keep up with the firehose.

I was disappointed in the coverage following last week’s coverage of ACIP’s. Headlines were confusing and, at times,

plain incorrect. I hope the media steps up; this won’t be the last vaccine rodeo.

Let’s be clear: Covid-19 vaccines are still recommended for everyone over 6 months of age—even by RFK Jr.’s

handpicked ACIP members. (Surprising, yes, but likely a product of political and grassroots pushback.

Still, we’ll take the win. Go here for my thoughts.)

Broad recommendation: The CDC still recommends vaccines for everyone 6 months and older under
“shared clinical decision making.” This is broader than FDA’s approach (which excludes off-label use),
but narrower than some professional organizations.
Insurance coverage: Vaccines remain covered across private plans, Medicaid, CHIP, and Medicare—
no cost-sharing. Health insurance groups (AHIP, ACHP) affirmed they’ll continue coverage.
Pharmacy access: Pharmacists can counsel and vaccinate under shared decision making in all 50 states,
which matters since >90% of adults get Covid vaccines in pharmacies.

Potential barriers to keep in mind:

Provider knowledge: Some providers aren’t yet familiar with shared decision making. It requires both
education and time, which are already in short supply. Fair reimbursement for vaccine counseling could help.
Healthcare access: Not everyone has a provider to discuss vaccines or insurance coverage with.
Prescription rules: In some states, you may still need a prescription. Because vaccines are still considered
off-label for some groups (like healthy adults and children, due to CDC and FDA misalignment), some states
require prescriptions at pharmacies.
- The good news: More than 23 states have “decoupled” from federal rules.
- The bad news: Utah, Nevada, West Virginia, Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida still haven’t.

What does this mean to you? Get vaccinated.

Autism report coming soon.

Remember RFK Jr.’s promise to “find the cause of autism” by September? Well, it’s September.

Word is his report is coming today (or this week). So consider this your prep.

Scientists have been studying autism for years by looking at genetics, environmental exposures, and other factors.

Revisit the YLE post below for more.

Vaccines don’t cause autism. So what does?

Katelyn Jetelina, Andrea Tamayo, and Thomas Farley

Mar 20

Vaccines don’t cause autism. So what does?

A version of this story was originally published by Dr. Thomas Farley, the author of a wonderful newsletter called Healthscaping.

Read full story

I imagine he will do with this report what he does best: Mix kernels of truth with outright falsehoods.

Word is that the report will cover the following (and likely more). Some quick nuance for you:

Tylenol during pregnancy. Early studies hinted at a possible correlation. But this was largely put to rest after a major 2024 study compared siblings—one exposed to Tylenol in utero, the other not. This “natural experiment” took into account genetics and family environment, and the result was clear: the link disappeared. There’s some data to suggest that fevers during pregnancy are linked to autism, which Tylenol can help prevent. Check out a deep dive here.
Folic acid during pregnancy. Large studies show folic acid is important for preventing serious conditions like neural tube defects. A few small studies have explored whether very high levels might shape development differently, but the evidence isn’t consistent. Check out a deep dive here.
Leucovorin: A treatment? A rare condition called cerebral folate deficiency, where folate in the blood looks normal but the brain doesn’t get enough, has been associated with developmental differences. In children who are both autistic and have this condition, leucovorin (folinic acid) has been studied in small trials. Some studies suggest possible benefits for communication and behavior, but much more research is needed. Be wary of anyone telling you to run out and buy this.
Vaccines. Over 25 epidemiological studies, including a fantastic 2019 analysis of more than 600,000 children in Denmark, have refuted any link.

One of the most harmful things this report could do is blame mothers and burden families with unfounded guilt. Autism is not something to “cure”—it’s a natural part of human diversity. People with autism deserve understanding, respect, inclusion, and the supports they need.

Trend highlights: Older people are falling more; younger people are lonelier

A recent review by Dr. Thomas Farley highlighted that, among those over 65, fall-related deaths have

more than tripled over the past thirty years. Over 85 is the highest risk group.

This now surpasses deaths from cancer, car crashes, and overdoses.

Source: T. Farley, JAMA (2025). Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist.

There are a few potential explanations for this:

Prescription trends: Many older adults are increasingly prescribed fall risk–increasing drugs (FRIDs), which are medications that can cause dizziness, drowsiness, or loss of balance. These include opioids, benzodiazepines, gabapentinoids, and some antidepressants prescribed, despite
safer alternatives, at rising rates despite warnings from geriatric experts.
Reporting changes: Death certificates increasingly list falls as the cause of death.
Frailty: Today’s oldest-old are living longer but often with more comorbidities, making them more vulnerable.

What does it mean for you? If you’re older or caring for someone who is, review your medications with a doctor. Ask specifically about FRIDs.

Younger people are lonelier.

Two new polls reveal that 1 in 2 teenagers and young adults (13–24-year-olds) cite loneliness as the most common reason for disruptions in their daily lives, followed by family issues.

Source: Axios

What does it mean for you? Connection matters. Encourage downtime, in-person friendships, and supportive online spaces. Communities protect against loneliness and other health risks.

Question Grab Bag

So what does shared clinical decision making mean in practice when I go into Walgreens to get my COVID shot this fall? Just give my age (over 80) and that’s my “go-home-free” card? Or do I have to say “Yeah, I talked to my doctor about it and s/he said it’s a good idea” (whether or not that actually happened)? Or actually produce something in writing from a doctor?

Great question! In most cases, you’ll go up to the counter or schedule an appointment, just like you usually would.

If you’re in a green state (see figure above), you don’t need a doctor’s note or anything in writing.
If you’re in a purple state and considered “off-label” (like healthy adults under 65), you will need a prescription. Pharmacists can administer the vaccine, but they can’t write the prescription themselves.

So what does shared clinical decision making actually mean in practice? At its core, it’s a conversation about the benefits and risks of vaccines. That’s always been important, but how it’s carried out is left to the practitioner, and it can look different depending on where you go. Importantly, all pharmacists in all 50 states can do “shared clinical decision making” with you. Some pharmacists may use a standard template, while others will sit down for a one-on-one discussion. In some cases, a technician will cover the basics before the pharmacist gives final approval.

However it unfolds, expect it to take a little more time than usual, but the end result should be the same: you’ll walk away vaccinated.

Bottom line

Stay healthy and sane this week. Hope to see you at the webinar soon!

Love, YLE

Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife.. YLE is a public health newsletter that reaches over 380,000 people in more than 132 countries, with one goal: to translate the ever-evolving public health science so that people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below: