COFFEE AND CONVERSATION WITH THE LEADERS TUESDAY 2 PM

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Coffee & Conversation

Tuesday, August 8, at 2 PM

Theodore D. Young Community Center
32 Manhattan Avenue
White Plains, NY 10607

Please join Westchester County Executive George Latimer, Westchester County Legislator Jewel Williams Johnson, and me for a Coffee & Conversation event at 2 PM on Tuesday, August 8, at the Theodore D. Young Community Center.

RSVP encouraged: mzgc@westchestercountyny.gov

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NEW COVID CASES STRENGTHEN SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: 4TH STRAIGHT RISING INFECTIONS WEEK

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WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis by John F. Bailey August 5, 2028:

The last six days  were the strongest evidence yet that covid is infecting an unsuspecting Westchester public at a rate of 50 persons a day with cases rising Monday through Friday already making this week July 30 through August 5 the largest number of cases in a week since March 5 to 11, when the County reported 354.

The daily new case rate for the last  7 days was an average of 6.2 new cases per 100,000 of population, which is 1,004,000 for Westchester. Multiplying 10.4 times 6.2 gives the county a daily rate of infections of 61. In 7 days, that means we got 435 new cases in a week and at the 6.2 daily average that could mean, if sustained, 1,740 new cases in the next three weeks just before school starts. Last August in 2022, the county recorded 6,235.

The daily infections must be held down by adequate socializations and not mixing if you test positive, otherwise this new rate of daily infections will rise possibly approach last August 2022 figures when the disease infections were declining 40% from July 10,268 level.

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WHITE PLAINS WEEK MONDAY NIGHT 7 PM EDT THE FRIDAY AUGUST 4 REPORT 7 P.M. EDT ON FIOS CH 45 ALL COUNTY IN WP OPTIMUM CH 76 & WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG

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BEWARE THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST–THE NIGHT OF QUIET HISTORIC DECISIONS

JOHN BAILEY SURVEYS THE GROWTH OF COVID WITH CONCERN SO THE EPIDEMIOLOGISTS

JOHN BAILEY REVIEWS THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS OF DR KATELYN JETELINA “YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST” AND DR. CAITLIN RIVERS OF “FORCE OF INFECTION” THE EPIDEMIOLOGISTS  TRACKING THE COVID GATHERING WAVE.

PLAN FOR STATELESS MIGRANTS — PLAN IS NOT READY YET–NO ANSWERS YET

ON INTERIM COURT FOR ASYLUM IN WESTCHESTER AND NO RULING ON WHETHER

THEY CAN WORK IN WESTCHESTER. NO ABSWERS FRIN NAYORKIS OF HOMELAND SECURITY

AFTER 9 WEEKS

 

GOVERNOR HOCHUL CRACKS DOWN ON FENTANYL, OFFERS FREE OVERDOSE TREATMENT BY MAIL

ISABEL VILLAR: SHINING LIGHT, RENAISSANCE WOMAN, CUBAN IMMIGRANT

PIONEERED IMMIGRANT PROGRESS FOUNDER OF EL CENTRO HISPANO EXCELSIOR! 

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS

FRIDAYS FOR 23 YEARS ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK

EVERY WEEK

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FLASH! CITY OF WHITE PLAINS SET TO SETTLE CHAMBERLAIN 12-year SUIT FOR $5 MILLION. UP FOR COUNCIL APPROVAL MONDAY NIGHT

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WPCNR WHITE PLAINS LAW JOURNAL. By John  F. Bailey. August 4, 2028:

The 12-year efforts of the Kevin Chamberlain, Jr family on behalf of their father, Kevin Chamberlain,Sr. in their quest for damages in the death of Mr. Chamberlain, Sr. who was shot and killed in 2011 in his apartment in the Winbrook complex has reached a settlement with the City of White Plains in the matter.

In an ordinance on the White Plains Common Council agenda Monday, the settlement to be paid the family by The City of White Plains is $5,000,000. It awaits approval by the Common Monday evening.

The family had originally sued the City for $21 Million.

The Appellate Court Second Department had previously found in the original suit which had been dismissed by the County Supreme Court, an error opening the possibility of a new trial.

The Common Council considered the Chamberlain law suit  last Monday evening in Executive Session.

 

WIKIPEDIA has an extensive recap of this case:

At approximately 5:22 a.m., on November 19, 2011, Chamberlain was at home in the Winbrook Public Housing[9][10] at 135 S. Lexington Avenue[11] in White PlainsNew York. His LifeAid medical alert necklace was triggered, sending an alert to a LifeAid customer service operator, who in turn called the City of White Plains Department of Public Safety.

In response, police officers, firefighters, and emergency medical technicians were dispatched. At Chamberlain’s home, police knocked on his door. Chamberlain told them through the door, he did not call them, did not require assistance, was not having a medical emergency, and asked them to leave.[4] Police refused to leave his home, and insisted that Chamberlain open the door. Throughout the entire incident, an audio recording was made by a LifeAid device in the home. The police became more insistent, and began banging on the door. Chamberlain then contacted the LifeAid operator asking them for help. He stated that the White Plains Police employees were going to enter his home and kill him. The police continued to bang on the door, and then attempted to force it open for approximately one hour.

Upon breaking down his door, they entered Chamberlain’s apartment. Police alleged Chamberlain came at them with a butcher knife when they broke down the door.[12] Chamberlain’s family claims the elderly Chamberlain was unarmed,[13] and did not resist. Police tased him, and then shot him with a bean bag round fired from a shotgun.[14] Chamberlain allegedly continued to charge at officers with the knife when Officer Anthony Carelli (whose name was withheld for over four months after the incident)[15] shot him twice[16][17] in the chest with live ammunition.[18][19] A camera mounted on the taser captured the tasing, but was not functioning during the shooting.[20] Chamberlain later died in surgery at White Plains Hospital.[10]

 

COURT PROCEEDINGS OVER LAST 12 YEARS:

 

District Attorney and Grand jury inactions

In 2012, a grand jury reviewed the case and decided that no criminal charge would be made against police officers involved in the killing.[22][23] Westchester District Attorney Janet DiFiore (retired New York’s Chief Judge) defended her decision not to prosecute Carelli and his colleagues on the grounds that they “acted appropriately,” and that “there was no reasonable cause” to indict Carelli for murder. DiFiore also neglected to take any disciplinary action against officer Steven Hart for calling Chamberlain a “nigger”.[24]

 

Police department review[edit]

In May 2012, White Plains mayor Thomas Roach announced that he would bring in “outside experts to do a broad review of” policy for the city’s police department.[25] The commission’s chair was Dr. Maria Haberfeld, a political science professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the academic coordinator for New York’s Executive Police Institute.[26][27]

After a four-month investigation, the report concluded that Chamberlain’s shooting was justifiable because it happened “after negotiations and when all non-lethal means were unsuccessful.”[28] The family’s lawyers and groups such as Blacks in Law Enforcement of America (BLEA) have criticized the report for failing to consider and address various issues.[28][29]

Federal investigation[edit]

Chamberlain’s family asked U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara for a “criminal investigation,” and in May 2012 the U.S. Attorney’s Office announced that it would investigate whether federal civil rights law was violated.[19][30] In January 2018, federal prosecutors decided not to bring any charges.[31]

Petition[edit]

An online petition was created by the son of Kenneth Chamberlain Sr. By April 6, 2012, it had received nearly 199,900 signatures. It asks for an end to police misconduct and brutality, and for the officers involved to be “indicted and charged with murder and civil rights violations.”[32] The petition will be delivered to the County District Attorney for Westchester, Janet DiFiore.[33]

Chamberlain Jr. said he was inspired by the petition circulated online by the parents of shooting victim Trayvon Martin, saying, “I signed Trayvon’s petition, sat back and thought, ‘Well, maybe I should do a petition.'” As of May 3, 2012, the petition had received at least 208,000 signatures.[34]

Civil suit

KENNETH CHAMBERLAIN, JR. AFTER FEDERAL CIVIL SUIT DECISION

On July 2, 2012, a federal civil suit for $21 million was filed by the victim’s son, Kenneth Chamberlain Jr., against the City of White Plains and the White Plains Police Department.[35] In November 2012, the Chamberlain family amended their lawsuit to require the city to modify police procedures with the mentally ill.

The case went to trial on November 7, 2016.[36] The jury found neither the police nor the city liable.[37][38] The family has appealed, arguing that the judge improperly excluded evidence.[39] The appellate court heard argument on March 22, 2018.[40]

Appeals court decision 

In June 2020, an appellate court ruled that the federal judge erred when she dismissed some of the claims in the lawsuit filed in 2011. The ruling restores claims of non-lethal excessive force and unlawful entry in the killing of Chamberlain. The court found that the lawsuit presented sufficient allegations that “a reasonable, experienced officer would not be justified in believing that entry into the apartment was necessary.”

Chamberlain’s son expressed joy upon hearing the ruling saying, “The appeals court has confirmed what we knew all along: That they violated my father’s 4th Amendment rights.” Chamberlain Jr. and his lawyers noted and found it appropriate that the ruling came at a time of nationwide protests following the murder of George Floyd.[41]

(WPCNR is a financial supporter to Wikipedia content.)

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WINTER FLU SEASON OUTLOOK

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Winter flu season outlook

A look ahead to winter respiratory virus season

I don’t know about your household, but last winter was brutal for my family. I have young kids in school, and they were constantly hit with various bugs throughout the so-called “tripledemic.” I’m already starting to wonder: will this year be more of the same?

I did a pretty good job of calling last season. I suspected we would see an early-than-usual flu season in July, and

and I warned in September that childhood illnesses would flare. I thought I’d push my luck by trying a long-term forecast again this year.

This is guesswork, so think of it as you would a Farmer’s Almanac outlook.

Punchline

I anticipate this will be a high-normal winter respiratory virus season. It won’t be quite as bad as last year, but still higher than what we normally saw in pre-pandemic times.

Deep dive

I can’t think of a reason why COVID-19 would depart from its habit of surging in the winter months, so that’s my expectation again this year. We’ve been circulating through Omicron variants for over a year now, and they seem to have staying power, so we’ll likely get more of the same. (On the other hand, if a brand new variant does become dominant, we would be in for a larger wave.)

Many of the young children who are vulnerable to RSV will have gotten it last year, so I expect that the population-level susceptibility is lower now than it was last year. Still, even severe winter respiratory virus seasons don’t infection everyone, and new babies have been born since the last wave, so I expect the conditions for a worse-than-average year are present again. There was also a sizable wave of RSV in Australia, which is further evidence that it will be another significant RSV season in North America.

Older adults are also vulnerable to severe RSV, but I have less of a sense of the disease dynamics in that population. Luckily, there will be an RSV vaccine available to help protect people 60 years of age and older soon. It’s expected to become available this fall.

Australia’s 2023 RSV season was less severe than 2022, but still quite active. Source.

Influenza season is in full swing in Australia, so we can get a preliminary sense of how things are unfolding there.

Last flu season, Australia (and later the Northern Hemisphere) saw activity begin very early. They did not see that pattern this season, which suggests we can expect a more typical winter start here in the North. Peak week and duration are not unknown, but I think we can rule out a year of unusually low activity.

On the bright side, H1N1 is the most prevalent influenza strain again this year. It’s what dominated last year, and it’s included in the vaccine again this year. South Africa and parts of Southeast Asia are seeing some H3N2, which is also in this year’s vaccine. The seasonal influenza vaccine is generally available by September, and it’s a good idea to get it before Thanksgiving.

Australia’s 2023 flu season hints at what the Northern Hemisphere can expect. Source.

Lastly, I’m thinking that the other pesky respiratory viruses like the seasonal coronaviruses will behave similar to what I’m expecting for RSV, which is to say it may be another big season. There was a large buildup of the susceptible population in the years where people were wearing masks and social distancing. There is no way that one bad year reset things totally, so I think there will be plenty of activity again this year.

What it all means

For my family, I’m prepared for another year of stuffy noses and sick days. I just hope it’s not as extensive as the 2022-2023 season.

For healthcare systems that creaked under the load of respiratory virus season even before the pandemic, I do suspect that it may be another tough winter. I hope some of the thinking I’m sharing, imperfect though it may be, can help to shape early preparations.

How are you using this information? Let me know in the comments.

Force of Infection is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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MIDST ONGOING OVERDOSE CRISIS, GOVERNOR HOCHUL ANNOUNCES NEW STATEWIDE MEDIA CAMPAIGN AND PODCAST SERIES TO EDUCATE PUBLIC AND HIGHLIGHT SERVICES AVAILABLE IN NEW YORK STATE

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Campaign Focuses on Dangers of Fentanyl, Harm Reduction Education, and How to Seek Help for Addiction

  

OASAS Launches Partnership with NEXT Distro to Supply Naloxone Free of Charge to All New Yorkers

  

Weekly Podcast Series Will Deliver Critical Information and Feature Addiction Services Professionals and Those Directly Impacted by Addiction.

SEE BELOW FOR HOW TO GET PODCASTS , TREATMENT OPTIONS,  NALOXONE OVERDOSE-STOPPER.

 


Governor Kathy 
Hochul announced THIS WEEK the launch of a new statewide media campaign to raise awareness of addiction, and the services available in New York State for those impacted by addiction and their families.

The campaign is designed to educate the public about the potential risks of fentanyl, as well as the importance of harm reduction services, and how and where to find help for addiction in New York State.

As part of this campaign, the New York State Office of Addiction Services and Supports is also launching a partnership with NEXT Distro to increase access to the overdose reversal medication, naloxone. This partnership is funded through New York State’s Opioid Settlement Fund, and will allow individuals to receive naloxone by mail, free of charge. To compliment these efforts, OASAS is also premiering a new educational podcast series, entitled “Addiction: The Next Step.” The podcast will educate the public about all aspects of addiction and the work of OASAS and highlight stories of individuals in recovery. 

“The impact of fentanyl and the ongoing opioid and overdose crisis continues to be felt by New Yorkers in every community across the state, and we are working around the clock to address this public health emergency,” Governor Hochul said. “We need to take every possible step to save lives which starts with educating New Yorkers on the dangers of these substances and the resources available to help all those who have been impacted.” 

New York State Office of Addiction Services and Supports Commissioner Dr. Chinazo Cunningham said, “We are experiencing the worst overdose crisis in history. It is more important than ever that we inform the public about the ongoing risks, as well as the services and supports available here in New York. This campaign and podcast series is another way for us to get the message out that help is available, every step of the way, no matter what support people need or where they live. In addition, by supplying naloxone for free, we are giving people an important tool to help stop overdoses and save lives in their communities.” 

Fentanyl is a potentially extremely dangerous substance, which can be 100 times more potent than heroin.

While fentanyl has certain legal medical uses, use of illegal fentanyl and synthetic analogs continues to rise and can have devastating consequences. Fentanyl is especially dangerous because it is often mixed into other drugs such as heroin or cocaine without the knowledge of people using those substances, which substantially raises the risk of a potential overdose. Fentanyl is now present in approximately 75% of overdose deaths in New York State. 

  

OASAS has worked to raise awareness of the potential dangers of fentanyl use through numerous efforts, including educating people on how to recognize signs of a fentanyl or opioid overdose, how to respond to an overdose and administer naloxone, and tips on how to avoid an overdose. Our ongoing prevention programming and education efforts across the state, including in schools, are also focused on informing New Yorkers about fentanyl and other illicit substances. 

Earlier this year, OASAS partnered with NY MATTERS to launch a new ordering system for both providers and individuals to obtain fentanyl test strips.

Since launching in February, more than 1.1 million fentanyl strips have been ordered. Free xylazine test strips and naloxone are also available through the same ordering system, and more than 230,000 xylazine test strips have been ordered since they were first made available in May. 

  

Harm Reduction Delivered Campaign 

The Harm Reduction Delivered Campaign builds on these ongoing efforts, with a PSA campaign to educate New Yorkers on the potential dangers of fentanyl. This multimedia campaign features PSA announcements on TV, radio, billboards and other public locations, and digital ads including on social media. 

In addition to highlighting the potential dangers of fentanyl, and how New York State is working to address this crisis, the campaign will also raise awareness of harm reduction services. Harm reduction is an important part of the continuum of addiction care available throughout the state, and includes things like naloxone and test strip distribution, efforts to increase medication for addiction treatment, work to reduce stigma, and education on overdose prevention. 

  

The campaign also addresses the growing number of opioid-related overdoses across New York State through a new partnership to supply naloxone.

OASAS is partnering with NEXT Distro to supply naloxone free of charge to individuals throughout the state. Previously, only OASAS and Office of Mental Health providers were able to order naloxone directly. Through a new ordering portalindividuals can now place orders for naloxone to be mailed directly to them. In addition to naloxone, educational materials on how to use naloxone, where to find treatment for opioid use disorder, and other resources will also be provided. 

For individuals looking to learn how to use naloxone, OASAS offers virtual naloxone trainingswhich are open to the public, and educate individuals on how to recognize an overdose, respond by administering naloxone, and what to do after naloxone is given. 

  

This campaign is being supported with federal funding through the State Opioid Response and Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment grants, as well as funding from New York State’s Opioid Settlement Fund. 

  

Addiction: The Next Step Podcast 

OASAS is also launching a podcast to educate the public about addiction, the services and supports available for New Yorkers, and how to access help. “Addiction: The Next Step” is hosted by former broadcast journalists and will include providers and other OASAS employees as guests, sharing their expertise about various aspects of addiction and the system of care in New York State. 

The first episode features Commissioner Chinazo Cunningham, offering an introduction to OASAS, its mission, and the addiction services system in New York State.

Future episodes will focus on OASAS prevention, harm reduction, treatment, and recovery services, and how these specialized services are integral to helping New Yorkers access the individualized help they need. Several episodes will also include conversations with New Yorkers in recovery, as well as others who have personal experience helping those affected by addiction. 

  

Episodes will be released weekly and are available through audio and podcast apps, and will also be posted on the OASAS website and the agency’s TwitterFacebook, and Instagram pages. 

  

New York State is receiving more than $2 billion through various settlement agreements with opioid manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies that were secured by Attorney General Letitia James. A portion of the funding from these settlements will go directly to municipalities, with the remainder deposited into a dedicated fund to support prevention, treatment, harm reduction and recovery efforts to address the ongoing opioid epidemic. 

  

The same legislation that established the dedicated fund also created the Opioid Settlement Fund Advisory Board, which is tasked with making recommendations on how settlement dollars should be allocated to best serve those in need. Board members issued their first recommendations on November 1, 2022, identifying the expansion of harm reduction services and treatment as top priorities. 

  

New York State has instituted an aggressive, multi-pronged approach to addressing the overdose epidemic, and created a nation-leading continuum of addiction care with full prevention, treatment, recovery, and harm reduction services. The state has worked to expand access to traditional services, including crisis services, inpatient, outpatient, and residential treatment programs, as well as medication to treat addiction, and mobile treatment and transportation services. 

  

Governor Hochul was a member of the NYS Heroin and Opioid Task Force, which in 2016, recommended new, non-traditional services, including recovery centers, youth clubhouses, expanded peer services, and open access centers, which provide immediate assessments and referrals to care. These services have since been established in numerous communities around the state and have helped people in need access care closer to where they live. 

 

New Yorkers struggling with an addiction, or whose loved ones are struggling, can find help and hope by calling the state’s toll-free, 24-hour, 7-day-a-week HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY (1-877-846-7369) or by texting HOPENY (Short Code 467369). 

Available addiction treatment including crisis/detox, inpatient, residential, or outpatient care can be found using the NYS OASAS Treatment Availability Dashboard at FindAddictionTreatment.ny.gov or through the NYS OASAS website.  

  

If you, or a loved one, have experienced insurance obstacles related to treatment or need help filing an appeal for a denied claim, contact the CHAMP helpline by phone at 888-614-5400 or email at ombuds@oasas.ny.go

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FREE LUNCHES FOR TEENS AT WHITE PLAINS LIBRARY

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Summer Meals at the Library

Monday through Friday
11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.
In the Gallery

Through Friday, August 18th, kids and teens ages 18 and under can get free, healthy meals at the Library. There is no need to sign up. Just show up! Meals are limited, while supplies last. Food must be eaten on-site when picked up.

This program is made possible by the White Plains City School District, local sponsor of the Summer Food Service Program, administered by NY State Dept. of Ed.

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RIDING THE COVID 19 WAVES 2023 STYLE WITH YOUR LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGIST

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Riding the COVID-19 waves: 2023 style.

NEW!SENIORS PAXLOVID HAS TO BE GIVEN WITHIN 5 DAYS OF SYMPTOMS.

NURSING HOMES  PRACTICES  RAISE QUESTIONS AGAIN.

INTERPRETING ANTIGENS RESULT WHAT THEY MEAN–IF POSITIVE YOU MUST ISOLATE WEAR MASK

We find ourselves in the middle of a COVID-19 wave.

Again.

If this summer follows the previous three, we should expect ~10-15% of Americans to get infected.

A nursing home outbreak recently spilled over to my extended family. They had a lot of great questions, particularly about how to manage this virus in 2023. Here are some answers. I hope it helps you, too.

Does health insurance cover at-home tests?

Because the public health emergency ended, coverage depends on your specific insurance plan:

  • Medicaid: Tests are covered until September 2024.
  • Private insurance: Coverage is optional, so you must check. (Very few do.)
  • Flexible spending account (FSA) or a health savings account (HSA): You can use the money to purchase at-home COVID-19 tests.
  • Uninsured: There’s a stockpile of free tests; use this search tool to find a location.

Do antigen tests expire?

Expiration ranges from 6 months – 2 years, depending on the brand. The date on the box may be incorrect, as the FDA later extended dates. Here is an updated list to see if it’s still good after brushing off cobwebs.

Antigen tests can get too hot (and too cold).

Antigen tests can withstand heat from regular shipping processes. But, if your test has been living inside your car and getting very hot for days, consider it defective.

If you get a negative…

False negatives at the beginning of infection are very common, thanks to the virus mutating. In a recent study, antigen and PCR tests only agreed 47-58% of the time. If they did agree, there was a 1-8 day delay between a PCR turning positive and an antigen test turning positive.

The higher we are in a wave, the more skeptical you should be of a negative result. There are two things you can do to help reduce skepticism (i.e., false negatives):

  1. Swab throat and salvia. These are positive days before the nose.
  2. Repeat testing. Two tests within 48 hours catch 92% of symptomatic cases and 39% of asymptomatic cases. Three tests 48 hours apart detected 94% of symptomatic and 57% of asymptomatic patients.

If you get a positive…

Positives are positives. You’re infectious.

The faintness of a line provides clues, though:

  • Very bold line= you’re very contagious.
  • Barely see the line= you’re at the beginning or the end of your infection window.

Should I report my positive to the health department?

I wouldn’t bother. Wastewater is where it’s at these days, and, fortunately, that doesn’t require you to do anything different.

Isolate for five days, at minimum.

  • When is Day 0? The first day of symptoms (not the day you get a positive test).
  • When do we leave isolation? Technically the CDC says Day 5. But 2 out of 3 people will still be infectious, so if you do, wear a mask. It’s best to stay in isolation until you have a negative antigen test or it’s been at least ten days.
  • Where was I infected? Wherever you were ~48 hours before symptoms started.

If you’re over 65, get Paxlovid!

The first question to my 93-year-old relative was: Did you get Paxlovid? I was incredibly disappointed with the answer. The nursing home waited too long to test, so she was outside the eligibility window. (Paxlovid has to be given within five days of symptoms starting.)

She’s not alone. A recent study found only 1 in 4 nursing home residents with COVID-19 were prescribed an antiviral. This is absolutely unacceptable.

How long will I have symptoms?

~6-12 days. Maybe longer, maybe shorter. It depends on a lot of individual factors.

But having symptoms doesn’t necessarily mean you’re infectious. A great way to know is to test to exit (if negative, you’re clear).

Pink eye with kids?

According to the American Academy of Ophthalmology, the newer subvariants of COVID-19 are responsible for some cases of pink eye. In a small study in China, 25% of children aged 2-11 had pink eye during COVID-19 infection. Among adults, it’s much lower rates (1-2% of cases have pink eye).

Should I wear a mask?

  • In your house: Masks work. A recent study found that if the index case (i.e., infected person) was masked at home, household transmission was reduced by 67%. Not sharing a bathroom reduced risk by 78%.
  • Going outside. You don’t need to wear a mask to walk your dog.

Does this mean I’m in the clear for Winter?

Maybe. Data from the UK shows that, on average, people get 1-2 infections yearly. You’ll have good protection going into the fall respiratory season. (I would delay a fall booster by at least six months; more on this later).

(Source: Omicron Data)

I’ve never had an infection. Do I have superpowers?

Maybe. Or, perhaps, an infection went undetected. Scientists recently discovered that if you have two copies of a specific gene (HLA-B*15:01), you are 8x more likely to remain asymptomatic. Unfortunately, there’s no way for the average person to know. So, harm reduction is still the name of the game.

Bottom line

A COVID-19 wave is here. Thanks to our immunity wall, 2023 looks very different, but we can still use tools to help minimize disruption. To me, it’s still worth it. (I really don’t want to miss an upcoming summer vacation.)

As we say when catching ocean waves in San Diego: Shaka.

Love, YLE


“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations. At night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

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The Isabel Villar Story. Renaissance Woman. Cuban Immigrant 1966, Founder of El Centro Hispano pioneered immigrant acceptance, progress in Westchester: A White Plains Shining Light

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WPCNR SHINING LIGHTS. Obituary from McMahon,Lyon & Hartnett Funeral Home. August 1, 2023:

Isabel Elsa Villar…

Founding Executive Director of El Centro Hispano in White Plains and a retired guidance counselor in the Norwalk, CT, school system, passed away July 12, 2023 after battling ovarian cancer for the last 15 years at the age of 74.

Born on September 23, 1948 in Cuba, she resided in White Plains for last 57 years.

Isabel immigrated to the US with her family in 1966.

Upon enrolling soon thereafter at White Plains High School, she was immediately sensitized to the problems newcomers to this country face because of the language barrier and cultural differences. Her experiences in those early years were instrumental in shaping her future vocation, her calling in life.

After receiving her B.A. in Political Science/Latin American Studies from Manhattanville College, Isabel was hired in 1972 as a bilingual middle school teacher in Norwalk, CT. In 1978 she began teaching American History, ESOL and Spanish at Brien McMahon High School.

During those years she earned three master’s degrees, from New York University, Iona College, and Long Island University as well as her license in counseling. In 1988 Isabel became a guidance counselor at Brien McMahon and a decade later founded the Brien McMahon High School Hispanic Alumni Association with the mission of having Hispanic alumni serve as role models and mentors for current students.

A devoted educator and counselor, Isabel herself was an extraordinary role model who earned the gratitude of so many students who understood that she had once walked in their shoes.

In spite of a demanding full-time job in education, Isabel wanted to do even more to help those newly arrived in this country. In 1974 she co-founded El Centro Hispano in White Plains, New York.

This community organization offers a variety of programs to Hispanic residents of White Plains and Westchester County. The programs currently offered by El Centro Hispano are changing the lives of their clients through education, technology, support services, cultural events, outreach, counseling and empowerment, and through special activities.

They include but are not limited to English as a Second Language; High School Equivalency Prep; Citizenship classes; all levels of computer classes for adults, tutorial services for children in k-12; scholarships for graduating high school students; a stipend program for college and high school students tutoring children in all our educational programs; educational and informational workshops; semimonthly food distribution; legal and Affordable Care Program assistance; free health services, as well as translation services and assistance in finding housing and looking for employment.

These programs educate and inform the immigrant community about how to exercise their rights in this country and prepare them to succeed and make a better future for themselves and their children.

From its inception in 1974 El Centro Hispano was housed at St. Bernard’s Roman Catholic Church in White Plains. The support of the parish over the years enabled the fledging organization to not only survive but to grow and flourish. When circumstances changed in early 2020, it became clear that Centro Hispano needed a new home. Even though plagued by health problems, Isabel devoted her last years to making that dream a reality.

Thanks to her vision and hard work, as well as the support of many individuals and community organizations, in June of 2022 El Centro Hispano purchased a building on Central Avenue in White Plains. Renovations took almost a year, but on June 26 2023, El Centro Hispano opened its doors and began serving the Hispanic community in its new location.

Throughout her long and distinguished career, Isabel was not only co-host of the Centro Hispano cable TV program, “El Centro Hispano Informa”, but she served on numerous committees, councils and advisory boards.

Her voice and influence reached far beyond her own community. Honored with forty-two different awards over the years, she was grateful for each and every one. A few of those that were especially meaningful to her were The Statue of Liberty Award, the Americanism Award from the Daughters of the American Revolution, the Women of Distinction Award from the New York State Senate,

The Caring New Yorker Award from Fidelis Care New York Liberty at the Madison Square Garden arena, the Harold Fitzpatrick Community Leadership Award from the African American Men of Westchester and the Business Council of Westchester, The AJC Westchester/Fairfield Woman of Valor Award and the Westchester County Board of Legislator for her outstanding contributions and civic activities in Westchester County as the Founding Director of El Centro Hispano.

She was proud to be inducted into the White Plains High School Hall of Fame, the YWCA Hall of Fame, and the Westchester Senior Citizens Hall of Fame. A very special moment was having a section of Lexington Avenue in White Plains renamed Isabel Elsa Villar Boulevard in her honor in October of 2013.

Isabel loved life and her spirit was indomitable. No matter how busy, she still found time for her two great passions, travel and music, sometimes combining them. She traveled to 102 countries and islands, some of them more than once, and she always had her next trip lined up. Isabel had a lovely voice and enjoyed singing, sometimes accompanying herself on the piano.

She delighted wedding guests in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Spain, Italy, and here at home in New York, Connecticut and Florida with her rendition of Ave Maria, and she never missed an opportunity to sing along with street musicians wherever she was. From 1966 – 2020 she was director of the Spanish choir at St. Bernard’s Church in White Plains.

Predeceased by her parents, Elsa Sanchez and Francisco Villar, Isabel’s survivors include her brother, Dr. Frank Villar Sanchez (Dr. Celis Fernandez) and her sister, Dalia Gonzalez (Carlos). She is also survived by her nephew, Dr. Franco Villar Fernandez, nieces, Yvette and Vanessa Gonzalez, grand-nephew, Ephrain Castillo, Jr., two aunts, one uncle, and eighteen cousins.

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