WPCNR HOUSING NEWS. From the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors. April 11, 2016
Realtors operating in the four-county lower Hudson region served by the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors reported 3,391 closed residential transactions during the first three months of 2016, an increase of 530 sales or 18.5% from the same period in 2015.
The burst of closings largely resulted from market activity that took place during the winter months of 2015 and the first few weeks of 2016. First quarter closings are not only increasing but are accelerating with year-to-year increases of 10.8% from 2013 to 2014, and 12.1% from 2014 to 2015. The sales activity in 2016 was accompanied by relatively flat average prices.
Westchester County, typically accounting for 50-60% of the region’s real estate sales, posted a 14.0% first quarter gain over 2015. Setting aside its relatively small multi-family sector, cooperatives were the best performing sector with a 17.5% increase over last year. Condominiums followed at 15.7% and single family houses at 11.2%. Altogether there were 1,847 sales, an increase of 227 units over last year’s first quarter total.
However home prices in Westchester County continued to decline:
The median sale price of a single family Westchester house was $569,950 – down 5.0% from last year’s $600,000 (and 2014 as well).
The overall end-of-quarter supply of properties for sale in the Hudson Valley region hardly budged from 9,662 units in 2005 to 9,703 units in 2016 although there were differences
Westchester, having the most housing stock, also posted the highest percentage of inventory increase, 3.2%, among the counties.
As observed in prior reports, the region’s supply of for-sale housing seems sufficient to support increasingly high volumes of sales without undue upward pressure on prices. In fact, median* and mean* sale prices actually decreased year to year in most cases.
The lower Hudson Valley real estate market is running smoothly and at high speed. The supply of housing seems adequate to support the high volume of sales. Price increases are not outpacing inflation and are falling back a little in some areas and among some property types. That easing of prices probably is one of the major factors driving prospective purchasers to enter a local real estate market where buyers’ and sellers’ expectations are in accord.
The environment that has enabled this performance has been relatively stable for the past several years. High unemployment, which makes consumers fearful for their own jobs and thus dampens their enthusiasm for acting on their own real estate needs, has steadily dropped to 4.5% or lower in all four HGAR counties. Mortgage interest rates remain at historic lows.
The recent action of the Federal Reserve to raise its base rate to 25 basis points is not perceived to have any meaningful impact on the real estate market. Volatility in the equity markets could put a damper on enthusiasm for real estate in the short term. So could chaotic post-election government in Washington. But for the time being there is every reason to expect that our local real estate market will do well for at least the next two quarters of 2016.
