COVID, FLU, RSV INFECTIONS DECLINE IN THE NORTHEAST: DR. CAITLIN RIVERS

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Welcome to the Northeast edition of Outbreak Outlook! It is only available to paid subscribers. If you wish to become a paid subscriber and access region-specific information, please click the Subscribe Now button below. Thanks for reading! -Caitlin

Influenza-like illness

Influenza-like illness (ILI) declined across the Northeast this past week, reinforcing my optimism that the region is past peak activity after a late December surge. Around 5.2% of visits to the doctor were for fever and cough or sore throat during the week ending January 13, down from 5.8% the week prior.

Northeast Region: ILI Activity
Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

Outpatient ILI: The percentage of doctors visits for fever and cough or sore throat declined in most states across the region. ILI drops occurred in Vermont (-0.1 to 1.7%), Maine (-0.3 to 2.7%), Rhode Island (-0.5 to 2.6%), Connecticut (-0.6 to 3.4%), Pennsylvania (-0.6 to 2.8%), Massachusetts (-0.8 to 4.3%) and New Jersey (-1.1 to 6.5%). Only New Hampshire saw a slight uptick (+0.1 to 3.1%).

Northeast Region: Change in ILI Activity
Percent of doctors visits for ILI symptoms

Hospitalizations for influenza: In terms of influenza hospitalization rates, Vermont posted an increase this past week (+3.8 new admissions per 100K). Most other Northeastern states posted dramatic declines, including Maine (-1.2 per 100K), Rhode Island (-1.3), Massachusetts (-1.7), Pennsylvania (-1.1), New York (-1.1) and New Jersey (-1.1).

Wastewater concentration: Wastewater data also supports my conclusion that the Northeast has reached peak flu season. Wastewater concentration has declined markedly, after a late December peak.

Spotlight on NY: In New York state, ILI fell to 2.5%, which is fairly low compared to other states in the region. However, there has been an unusual uptick in in the central part of the state, so caution is warranted. In New York City, ILI activity remains very high at 9%. And although the outpatient ILI metric is decreasing, hospitalized cases of influenza actually increased, so again additional caution is warranted.


COVID-19

Overall, Covid-19 activity is easing in the region. Leading indicators like wastewater positivity and ER visits are improving in most states. We aren’t seeing uniform declines in hospitalizations just yet, but I think that will change in the upcoming weeks.

Hospitalizations: The Northeast region saw a mix of increases and decreases in Covid-19 hospitalization admission rates over the past week. Of the 9 states, 1 saw increase and 8 saw decreases. The only increase was in Connecticut, which rose 2.1 per 100,000 population. On the flip side, Maine posted the biggest decrease at 3.2 per 100,000. Other states with drops included New Hampshire (-2.6) and Vermont (-2.3). Marginal declines were seen in Pennsylvania (-1.8), Massachusetts (-1.9), and Rhode Island (-1.7).

Northeast Region: Change in New COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Weekly new hospitalizations per 100,000

Test positivity and emergency department visits: Both test positivity and the percentage of visits to the emergency department that are for Covid-19 dropped across the region.

Spotlight on CT: I checked secondary metrics like test positivity and ER visits in Connecticut specifically, which was the only state to see an increase in hospitalizations. I found that ER visits are falling in the state, so hospitaliations should soon follow.

Wastewater concentration: On the bright side, wastewater concentration dropped quite a bit in the Northeast, after peaking in late December. This gives me additional confidence that the winter wave is receding or will soon.


RSV

RSV activity in the Northeast has fallen for 6 weeks in a row now, with PCR test positivity currently at 6.6%, down from a recent high of nearly 14%. Looking ahead, I expect activity to continue to fall in the weeks ahead, likely dropping below the 5% threshold by the end of this month. Activity should continue to fall and remain low through the remainder of winter and spring until the season resumes in early fall.

Northeast Region: RSV Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage

Norovirus

Norovirus activity has slowed a bit in the northeast, with test positivity dropping below 12%. Test positivity has been in the 10% to 14% range since mid-December. For comparison, last year test positivity peaked at 16% in early March. For this reason, I expect the norovirus season to continue for a while yet, but I am glad for the temporary reprieve.

Northeast Region: Norovirus Activity
Test Positivity, Percentage

Other bugs

  • Seasonal coronavirus activity, a frequent cause of the common cold, is increasing rapidly, which is typical for this time of year. Expect some stuffy noses in the weeks ahead.
  • Human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus, two causes of influenza-like illness, remain low. Adenovirus activity also appears to remain low.

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New

  • Brightfarm Spinach and Salad Kits (more info)
  • Charcuterie meats sold by Fratelli Beretta and, newly, Busseto (more info)

Previously reported:

  • Tons of different granola and oatmeal products from Quaker — more items were added to the list of contaminated products (more info).
  • Ground beef sold by Valley Meats and Scanga Meat (more infomore info)
  • Pet food sold by Blue Ridge Beef (more info). Pet food can pose a risk to humans through cross contamination.
  • If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In other news

  • Several animals with rabies have been reported in the region. This is not uncommon; the Eastern United States experiences periodic animal cases, especially in raccoon and bat populations. These contribute to the spread of rabies to domestic animals and occasionally to humans. Anyone who received a bite from an unknown animal or comes into any kind of contact with a bat should immediately call the health department or seek medical care to be evaluated for post-exposure prophylaxis (preventive shots).
  • The New York State Department of Health has issued a $300,000 penalty to a Nassau County midwife for falsifying immunization records. The scheme affected roughly 1,500 school-aged children from throughout the state. All affected children must be fully up to date with all age-appropriate immunizations, or be in the process of receiving their missing vaccinations, before they can return to school. The vaccination scheme began at the start of the 2019-2020 school year, shortly after the elimination of non-medical exemptions for required school immunizations.
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THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE is BACK

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THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE

The Old Polo Grounds, my brother-in-laws favorite ballpark

 

WPCNR THE SUNDAY BAILEY.  News & Comment By John F. Bailey. January 21, 2024. Reprinted from the WPCNR Archives.:

The best league of all is not any of the professional leagues.

It is the Hot Stove League,  the league where every team and your team wins.

Because you talk about the coming season.

The Hot Stove League refers to the decades when baseball was the National Pastime. It no longer is, you rarely see pickup games around town anymore. Now they play  football and basketball, and if they play baseball they are in organized rec leagues, or little league which still places emphasis on playing the best players. (I wonder if this season they will install the 9 seconds to hit and 18 seconds to pitch major league rules.)

( Full Disclosure: I was 0 for 3 in Little League and struck out three times, and never caught a flyball in rightfield where I was played in the 1957 season. Why? Because the coaches never spent time to teach me how to catch a fly ball.)

But then neither is any professional sport really a national pastime.

They are television entertainment, and as we learn more and more they do not have the health and well-being of players or fans as one of their first concerns.

Can anyone explain to me why there is no heated tarp  on the Kansas City and Buffalo fields? How cheap! Playing games in 0 degree temperatures putting fans in danger of frostbite? Paying fans, not groundskeepers on staff to shovel out the stadium?  What an amateur operation. 

In America more people still see baseball games than any other sport. It is still the sport you do not have to be big or tall to play. You have to develop instincts and situational awareness. And if your’re a girl, you can play fast pitch softball a really lightning like game.

When I was a kid we listened to the World Series on the radio in the afternoons during school. Sympathetic teachers occasionally announced the score. It was what you talked about if you were a boy.

We’d race home in Pleasntville (we walked to school then) to catch the last few innings on tv if we had one. Series Games started at.1 PM or sometimes 12 noon.

Now there are so many playoff games leading in to the World Series that the series is played at night in cold weather and the games end late in the evening when we kids in our 70s have to go to bed.And Texas a wild card wins the Series.

When I was growing up in the 1950s, baseball’s World Series concluded the first week of October (in glorious autumn  had low sun and fantastic endings.

Brooklyn’s sinker baller, Johnny Podres, 7th Game October 4, 1955, shutting out the Yankees.
The day Brooklyn will never forget.

Podres shutting out the Yankees in Game 7 in 1955; the Don Larsen no-hitter, in 1956, saved by Mickey Mantle’s one-hand backhand robbery of a Gil Hodges drive in the left center gap, saving the no-hitter.

Mantle Fifth Game 1956, coming from right centerfield in full stride
catching up and backhanding Gil Hodges line drive
o preserve Don Larsen’s perfect game.

Lew Burdette winning three games in 1957; the White Sox playing the Dodgers in 1959; Willie Mays” Over-the-Shoulder robbery of Vic Wertz in 1954; If you saw those moments, or “saw them on the radio,” as Terry Cashman sang, you remembered them always.

Willie” robs Vic Wertz in the 8th– 450 feet from home plate to save Game One–1954

When it is 10 degrees like it is right now on the 21stth of January, old-timers would gather around a hot stove in small town general stores across the great continent and talk baseball about the coming season.

Arguments would ensue on who was the best Mantle or Mays or The Duke (at least in NY). In Chicago the lament was the long-suffering Cubs who never had winning season. Until 1969 when the Mets overtook them.

 

You aren’t having those discussions this year because nobody is making moves because of the lockout.

Baseball today, like baseball has always been does not care about the fans. The old owners would build teams and sell off their good players as Connie Mack did when he built three championship teams  1911 Philadelphia Athletics, the 1930s Philadelphia Athletics and the Philadelphia Athletics of the late 40s, poised to win, they even had a batting champion, Ferris Fain, but Mr. Mack  disbanded that team.

Calvin Grifith did that too with the Washington Senators of the mid-20s, and early 30s, they never contended after the mid-1930s.

Then we have the modern examples the owner of the Montreal Expos, who moved them to Miami. Nowadays in free agency days you never have a great player play a long time for team, or hardly ever. Fans hated it when the Mets traded away Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan.

The Red Sox traded away Babe Ruth for cash and did not win again until 1946.

Are you getting the idea? This is what fans talked about in the cold dead of winter, the shoveling of snow.

At this time of year we could hardly wait for spring training which should start in three weeks. I loved listening to exhibition games on the radio hearing the Yankee play-by-plqy from St. Petersburg and eagerly hearing about Gordon Windhorn who was just tearing the Grapefruit League in Florida apart in 1959. He hit something like 400 in spring training. He made the team and went 0 for 11 in his first two weeks of games and the Yankees traded him. But Gordon gave young fans hope. He had, though a Topps baseball card.

The Hot Stove League warmed us until the ritual of the baseball season would return.

I was reminded of this when the best brother-in-law in America called me last week  while I was trying to put together this week’s White Plains Week.

He is a Giants fan, and he called to tell me about a website devoted to the Polo Grounds, the old home of the New York Giants before they moved to San Francisco, he called to share with me the views of the ghost ballpark, and how the pictures stirred his memory.

In the lee of Coogan’s Bluff. The Polo Grounds
“Willie’s” Rookie Topps Card 1951

He recalled Willie Mays the Giants centerfielder, whom he mused could have become the all time home run leader had he not only played 34 games in 1952 and all of 1953 in  military service. Larry surmised that Willie could have hit 40 to 50 homers in those years of service, giving him 760 possible homers for his career, best Henry Aaron and possibly Barry Bonds, the current homerun all-time leader (762), despite his use of steroids.

I remembered that Mickey Mantle, the Yankee young star did not lose any years to military service.  Larry was surprised by that.

Mickey Mantle’s Rookie Card, 1951.

According to Major League Baseball and I quote, “ While playing high school football, Mantle was kicked in the left ankle. An infection developed which resulted in chronic osteomyelitis. Mantle was classified 4-F the first time he was examined, but his draft board decided to re-examine him and disqualifed him twice more. We mused that Mays may have very well hit over two hundred homers naturally. Based on his record.

This led  Larry to remember the winningest left-hander of all-time—Spahnie, Warren Spahn who won 363 games.

Spahnie–Baseball’s Winningest Southpaw

I said yeah, I saw him pitch in 1958 in the World Series shutting out the Yankees, 3-0, and then again in 1965, losing 2-1 in a game I think against the Giants in Shea Stadium. Even in his 40s, he went  8 innings. And he pitched every 4th day. He was crafty, had a sweeping curve ball that sunk and was unafraid to use it. Spahn served in the Navy in World War II losing 4 seasons  serving his country in the Pacific.

He returned to the Boston Braves in 1946 and in his first six years back from the Navy he won 21, 15,21,21,22 and 23 games with the old Braves.

If he had been pitching in his service years he possible could have won at least 15 or 20 a year in those 4 years giving him 423 wins lifetime.  We talked about his pitching motion, the high leg kick, and his pitching deep into games. (He went 10 innings against the Yankees in the sixth game of the 1958 World Series.)

In the cold 36 degree day Larry was experiencing that day last week in the south, and I was experiencing at 17 degrees in White Plains, the Hot Stove League of our own was keeping us warm, feeling the sunshine on our faces of early spring.

Larry remembered the first game he ever saw, in Yankee Stadium no less.

“I remember the thing most was how green the grass was as we walked into the lower box seats.’ I agreed with a huge smile over the miles of phone line, “Absolutely it hit me with its emerald majesty, the blasts of color from the billboards in the farflung bleacher adds “FYING A,’ “BALLENTINE BEER & ALE” ”.  Images of the Big ball Park were real again in our recall of our shared experience in a ballpark.

We warmed to the task. Talk turned to the Giants-Dodgers Playoff of 1951, and he wondered who had pitched for the Dodgers. I said I could not understand why Charlie Dressen the Dodger manager at the time called in Ralph Branca to face Bobby Thompson, who had homered off Branca earlier in the series.

Then I remembered Willie Mays was on deck. However I had to leave the phone to see what pitcher had Branca relieved. I was shocked to discover it was “Big Newk,” who had entered the 9th inning after going 8 innings, handcuffing the Giants.

Dressen figured Newcombe was done after he coughed up three hits and Dressen took him out.

But Branca was not a regular reliever.  He won 1, lost 2, and saved 3 in relief in 1951. He came in fired two fastballs to Thompson and the second fastball landed in the left field stands winning the pennant. If Thompson knew the second fastball was coming he still had to hit it.

Just talking with Larry about that game brought me back from my January  bad news-17 degrees- covid funk.

This faded into conversation about pitching and baseball memories came rushing back.

Larry recalled when Juan Marichal , then 24 years old the great Giant righthander was locked in a late inning pitching duel with Warren Spahn. Alvin Dark, the Giant Manager, Larry remembered asked Marichal whether he wanted to come out. Marichal, “I ain’t coming out. As long as that old man is pitching. I’m pitching.’

Usually in the Hot Stove League, we’d be talking about the coming season, and in the Hot Stove League every team had made changes which would have them be contenders. Just anticipating the lazy atmosphere of spring training made you impatient if you were a fan in the ‘50s.

I loved that old ball park, the Polo Grounds. It had soul. I loved the old Yankee Stadium with its grand stand to the sky with original façade with a rake in the upper deck stands that hung over the box seats giving you God’s view of the game.

In my last moments of life I will be thinking baseball, my daughter and my wife, my parents, the day in 1961 when my father took me to a Yankee-Tiger night game in sweltering 95 degree heat. (My Dad hated the heat, especially humid heat).

The game goes 9 innings, 3 hours, with the Tigers putting ducks on the pond every inning. Casey changing pitchers every inning. Then the Yankees string 3 singles together in the bottom of the ninth with 2 out to win it. My father never even mentioned leaving the game early.

There was the first game he took me to in Yankee Stadium in 1956 when I was 11. It was Indians and the Yankees in a Wednesday afternoon game. The Yanks won 3-2 when Billy Martin kicked the ball out of the thirdbaseman’s bare hand as the third sacker was trying to tag him out. Martin was a dead duck, but he kicked the ball out of his hand and scored. My father in the only burst of fan interest I ever saw from him, said “Did you see that? He kicked the ball out of his hand.”

I see that play in my replay of memory perfectly to this day.

I miss that Hot Stove League, where there’s never a losing season, you can taste the crisp refresher and stretch in the middle of the 7th, and the great plays, the greats play and cavort on the endless green once more.

So thanks Larry for that call. It was like old times.

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TONIGHT AT 7:30 JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS, THE FRIDAY JANUARY 19 REPORT FIOS CH 45, WP OPTIMUM CH 76 OR WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG

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GEORGE LATIMER AND MIKE SPANO ON THE POUGHKEEPSIE TO PENN STATION LINE ON THE HUDSON SHORE

MAYER ENDORSES LATIMER IN JAMAAL BOWMAN 16TH DISTRICT PRIMARY

COVID NUMBERS IN METRO AREA VIRTUALLY EQUAL TO CASES LAST JANUARY

 

INTERVIEW BEN BOYKIN ON THE POWER OF DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK

22 YEARS ON THE AIR ACROSS THE UNIVERSE

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COUNTY LEGISLATOR BEN BOYKIN TONIGHT ON DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. AT 8 ON CH 45 FIOS COUNTYWIDE, OPTIMUM CH 76 WHITE PLAINS AND WWW.WPCOMMUNITY MEDIA

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en Español

Dear Friends and Neighbors,

I was interviewed by Mr. John Bailey for his show called “People to Be Heard” regarding the legacy of Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and other issues. Below is a link to watch the interview.

http://wpcommunitymedia.org/people-to-be-heard/01162024-501

The show will broadcast on the White Plains local channels (Optimum ch. 76 and Verizon ch. 45) on the following days and times:

  • 1/18 @11am and 8pm
  • 1/19 @12pm
  • 1/20 @7pm
  • 1/21 @11am

Please share with others who may wish to view this interview.

Sincerely,

Ben Boykin


en Español

Queridos Amigos y Vecinos,

El Sr. John Bailey me entrevistó para su programa llamado “People to Be Heard” sobre el legado del Reverendo Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. y otros temas. A continuación se muestra un enlace para ver la entrevista.

http://wpcommunitymedia.org/people-to-be-heard/01162024-501

El programa se transmitirá en los canales locales de White Plains (Optimum canal 76 y Verizon canal 45) en los siguientes días y horarios:

  • 18/01 a las 11 a.m. y 8 p.m.
  • 19/01 a las 12 p.m.
  • 20/1 a las 7 p.m.
  • 21/1 a las 11 a.m.

Compártala con otras personas que deseen ver esta entrevista.

Atentamente,

Ben Boykin

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WESTCHESTER SURPASSES NYC NEW COVID CASES ON ONE DAY SATURDAY. COVID SPREAD RETAINS MOMENTUM, SPREAD RATE.

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NASSAU SUFFOLK, ORANGE, ROCKLAND, DUTCHESS ULSTER, PUTNAM, SULLIVAN AND WESTCHESTER NEW COVID CASES COMBINED HAVE 2,906 FOR THE WEEK.  NEW YORK CITY REPORTED 15,321 CASES IN 7 DAYS LAST WEEK (2,881 DAILY)

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from New York Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. January 17, 2024:

Westchester Reported 1,984 new persons coming down with covid January 7-13, the second week of the month.

The Westchester new covid cases on Saturday  were 38% more than reported by the five boroughs New York City new cases of 1,234  on one day Saturday according to New York State Department of Health.

For the week January 7 to 13, the Westchester 1,984 cases compared to 15,321 new covid cases in New York City

The number persons in Westchester County also reported one day  in which covid cases confirmed by New York State  positiveS based on persons coming in after they had had an antigen test (self administered), exceeded lab-verified PCR tests.

WPCNR has long suspected that antigen tests taken by individuals that show positive have been ignored until they start to feel sick then they go and get tested are confirmed positive.

Last Thursday, January 12 of the  380 new Westchester covid positives, only 163 tests were confirmed PCR tests and 217 were found positive among antigen test self-administered persons.

WPCNR has long suspected  before antigen tests were available  for the home that the reason positives were higher than NY Health Department numbers that persons were not getting tested, They were going to work or sending students to school, until they got sick then went in to be treated, and tested positive.

No one  in official capacity in Health Departments or in county or town positions have pointed this possibility.  I noticed this in August of 2023 when antigen test-positives were separarated out in the daily totals.

The growing number of antigen positive indicate  Individuals that show positive have been ignored the positive  until they start to feel sick then they go and get tested and are confirmed positive. This  behavior, of persons ignoring positive antigen results until they got symptoms, may be contributing to the obviously growing suburban counties that are approximately have the New York City population are now infecting more than all five boroughs of the city.

The first week in December 2023, Westchester had 764 covid infections, of those infections 387 (51%) tested positive through an antigen test and were confirmed.  Last week ending January 13, 6 weeks later, of 1,984 covid cases last week , 1,325 were confirned with PCR tests, and 717 (54%) were confirmed positive as a result of antigen tests.

What do I take from this?  People relying on antigen tests as they they go about their lives in (“post-covid times,”) if they do not take an antigen test, or if they do, and it is positive,but they do not feel sick, but for one reason or another do not want to miss work, get treated, not socialize, they could be spreading the disease to more persons who do not have it because they are infected with the virus.

The fact that in six weeks Westchester infections of covid have gone from 764 infections that week of Dec 3-9 to– 1,984  5 weeks later as of January 13, indicates that though antigen test positives make up about 54% of all new covid infections, it cannot be overlooked as a factor that many are thinking they are not sick after they take an antigen test even if positive or worse do not self-test after socializaations, until you feel sick could be a source of the spread  we are experiencing, combined of course with not having all your vaccines, or worse out socializing in schools, parties, large events.

The JN.1 variant is highly contagious if you have the variant in your respiratory system you can spread it inside of 1 hour to another person.

This could be why the middle to end of the week reported infections are soaring and have been doing so since the New Years weekend.

Monday through Friday the last two weeks: Daily New Cases Day by Day in Westchester

WEEK             SUNDAY    MONDAY  TUESDAY  WEDNESDAY  THURSDAY    FRIDAY      SAT     TOTAL

3/31-JAN 6        202           265              426               378            303              272      196     2,036

JAN 7-13            154           397              321               275             289              380      168     1,984

 

In the Mid-Hudson Region, Westchester led all 7 counties with 1,984 infections of covid, followed by Orange with 99, Rockland, 50 and Dutchess 45. Ulster, Putnam and Sullivan had 20, 14,and 11 respectively.

Nassau and Suffolk continue to average 700 infections a week between both counties.

Westchester averaged  29.3 infections a day for 7 days per 100,000 per population, there are 10.04 sections of 100,000 in the county This  29 a day in new infections resulted in 294 infection a day in the county for 7 days which works out to 2,059 a week.

Multiply that by 4 times and the month of January could see 8,236 infections by the end of end of the month. In the last three weeks, the 2,191 infections the week of Dec 24-31 in Westchester County  have spread the disease to  2 persons in 2 weeks ended Saturday  slightly increasing the 1 spreading to 1 person that resulted in keeping the numbers of new infections slightly lower the last two weeks.

 

 

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MEASLES: “OFF TO GREAT START IN 2024:” DR. KATELYN JETELINA ON TRENDS AND COLLECTIVE AMNESIA

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Si quiere leer la versión en español, pulse aquí.


Measles, trends, and collective amnesia.

Are cases increasing? What will 2024 look like? What can we do about it?

Yesterday I got a Google News alert: “Measles.” Yes, measles. In the 21st century. At the height of winter. (Measles typically spreads in spring.) What’s going on?

This sure seems like a lot. Is measles increasing?

A measles case here or there is not abnormal. We see them every year. Cases typically come from international travelers, but sometimes locally acquired outbreaks emerge among unvaccinated pockets.

Cases today are still far, far, far below rates in the 1950s and ’60s thanks to vaccines. However, when we zoom into the past 10 years, we see a slow but steady rise. This shouldn’t be a surprise, given the reduction in routine vaccination coverage and the increase in vaccine exemptions.

As you may also notice above, measles has epidemic cycles. It flares up every four to five years—2008, 2011, and 2019. We can also see this pattern during the pre-vaccine era (see below).

It is exactly 5 years since the last flare-up, which suggests this may be a bad year. Of course, the pandemic could throw off patterns, but we aren’t off to a great start.

What is (and is not) a way forward?

Measles is preventable. And, in the PA outbreak, one unvaccinated child went to daycare while infected, defying isolation.

People are disappointed and shocked that fellow parents wouldn’t vaccinate their children. People are angry that their loved ones may get exposed as a result, especially since babies under 12 months old cannot be vaccinated.

I share a lot of the frustration. But I remember what Dr. Sandro Galea said during the pandemic, “We cannot finger-wag our way to a healthier world.”

Is there collective amnesia? Let’s fix it. As generations age, the memory of mid-20th-century diseases like measles fade. This is a blessing and a curse.

Some don’t know why this disease is bad or if this vaccine is safe. This is understandable. The onus is on public health—we need to equip trusted messengers to start communicating, as measles is:

  • The most contagious disease, with an infected person infecting an average of 12-18 others (assuming no immunity in the population). In some cases, a single person has infected hundreds of people.
  • It’s not “just a fever or a rash.” While most people who get measles will recover, it can harm the body in every way possible. Measles can wipe out a huge fraction of immune memory to other diseases, causing an increase in all-cause deaths. 
  • The risks of infection far outweigh the risks of the vaccine, as shown beautifully by the New York Times below.

(Source: New York Times)

Is this a consequence of individualism? Let’s engage. One of the biggest challenges is the rise of individualism, as it goes against public health’s DNA: a collective response for the good of the population. We desperately need to engage with people who find individualism increasingly important. Develop interventions with them.

Is this due to a recent and dramatic decline in trust? Let’s do something about it. Mistakes were made during the pandemic. Misinformation is supercharged by social media.

Bad actors, like the disinformation dozen, drive the majority of anti-vax content.

Politics are further dividing individual health. Many people talk about these challenges (it’s even the theme of Davos this week!),

but I’m getting increasingly frustrated with inaction.

Bottom line

Unfortunately, measles is off to a great start in 2024. We expect trends to increase.

We need to heed the underlying warning. A laissez-faire approach to public health, on both sides, will not work. Harrowing stories like Roald Dahl’s below will creep into the 21st century. We can do better.

Love, YLE

NOTE: If you’re in Philadelphia, the Health Department has added several additional vaccination sites to ensure that children and adults who need the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine can get vaccinated at no cost. Check for locations here.


A big thanks to Edward Nirenberg for his help pulling a lot of the research integrated above.

“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, M.P.H. Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations, including CDC. At night, she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

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DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR. ADDRESSES BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS ON CIVIL RIGHTS, VOTING RIGHTS, IMMIGRATION

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DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR. ADDRESSES THE SENATE

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WPCNR NEWS & COMMENT. By John F. Bailey. January 15, 2024:

Editor’s Note: Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s birthday is today..  

There was a more important proceeding (that is actually not proceeding) why his spirit is dimmed this day .

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s ghost is in the Nation’s Capitol before a joint session of congress called at Dr. King’s request today.

He had to appear in Washington D.C. today to address a joint session of the United States Congress on a situation of utmost importance to every man and woman of any color, position and race in this nation and the nations of the world.

The man who spearheaded the civil rights movement in the 1960s has traveled on our behalf to address the President, the Senators,  the Congress on the impending roll back of voting rights now being implemented across the country that could apply to every person, no matter who they are, unless the both houses come to their senses.

The session has been called to order by the Vice President.

President Biden is standing awaiting for Reverend King’s introduction. It will be interesting how Dr. King approaches the two houses which is at an impasse on the Voting Rights bill.  It has been striking how few members of the joint houses have issued statements on Dr. King’s Birthday.  Dr. King has appeared. A solo figure at the entrance to the Senate chamber. Applause starts. Here is the President:

“I am proud to welcome to the Senate chambers, The Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King,Jr.”

(Applause sustained, rising to a crescendo. Dr. King in black suit, black tie, is walking slowly down the aisle hands at his sides turning his head left to right, acknowledging the Senators with nods of his head. He looks the same as he did when when we lost him to an assassin’s bullet in 1968.

The steadfast eyes that appear always focused on the sky, the big hands at his side. The  din of applause is unlike any this reporter has ever heard in the Senate chamber.

Dr. King approaches the podium circles and is welcomed by President Biden. Then Dr. King turns and approaches podium, rises. Looking at Senators and congressional reps, he acknowledges his accolade.

He has no notes. No teleprompter. Now, Reverend King is about to begin. Here we go:)

“President Biden, Distinguished Senators, Republicans, Democrats, Vice President Harris, thank you on this historic moment in the history of the United States for inviting me to address you today. Today is a time where  to paraphrase Charles Dickens, observer of another tumultuous time, that is the best of times it is the worst of times.

In my life on Earth I was fortunate to advance the cause of the Black Man resulting in the desegregation of schools, and emboldening more awareness of their rights and a new effort grew more fairness, restricting segregation in employment, housing, and increased programs for the Black Man.

This era since the mid-1960s has seen the greatest expansion of the economy, housing, education and success America has ever achieved because it involved all of us black men, black women, Latinos. immirants, because they came to us and were fairly employed and paid by American companies.

I ask is it just a coincidence that this prosperity has come parallel to expanding education for those long denied equal education, training, and equal opportunity employment, and has seen more leaders of minorities elected to offices  for the first time? It is not. The diverse make up of congress and leaders across the country were responsible for that.

But now a majority in this great cathedral of freedom feels this has not worked. They express fear of the immigrant. Fear of the Black man, the Hispanic man, the white race is afraid of them.

Parallel to this tumultuous time came the move for women’s equality that has greatly  fueled the American Economic Engine  the last 60 years.  Our workplaces became more like the faces of America: white, Irish, Jewish, black, Latino, Asian, Muslim, Indian. More than at any other time, America today is the work of  the votes of these citizens, because they could hold politicians accountable.

They had freedom.

They voted for Republicans for President, Democrats for President, they decided.

You sit there before me and I ask you to dream another dream of the future of what will happen if the voting rights being denied by some 36 states through selective rules for registering voters and how votes are done are not preserved in the Voting Rights Bill you have before you.

I have a very different dream for states applying measures denying votes, requiring identification, proof of citizenship, all designed to make it impossible for persons present (you fearful elected officials) feel would not vote for them.

Let us tell it like it is:  not vote fowhite politicians— would suffer a departure of persons of all nationalities (targeted by these measures) that would hurt the state workforce quality, ability and earnings potential.

(A wash of boos ,with vigorous applause)

How are you going to entice persons of the race you want in your workforce to do jobs the white portion of the population feels too good to do —  if they are going into a state that harasses Mexicans, Haitians, Muslims, Blacks, Indians, Asians for identification, restricted voting hours, only in-person voting.

I see a vast declaration  of independence by persons blatantly targeted by states seeking to preserve their whiteness in government and politicians in office who think that way and exclude persons of other races from voting.

(Catcalls, mixed with applause, applause slightly louder)

Senators and Congresspersons, I direct you to other consequences of suppression of voting rights: economics.

If you restrict voting  and gerrymander districts to create a state unfriendly to change or to address their needs they are going to be poorer and not spend as much money.

Your economy will not grow. Without a workforce educated and successful and involved, you will have nothing to offer companies. Your ability to tax will decline because you will have less people to tax. The wealthy will have to stop firing staff to make a fatter profit (at workers’ misfortune), or as the Captains of Industry explain it “right-sizing.”

(Boos cascade)

I have a greater dream today. When I and you see where America is today, what a more equal fair and accepting society we built the last 50 years, that I believe is what you have to see.

America is not worse for bringing the oppressed from other countries into our country. The facts are there to prove it. They build businesses, they serve in our restaurants, they host television shows, become doctors and nurses who have fought us through Covid.

The politics of hate and division have been with us just five years. My spirit is here today because I am troubled at the  horrifying atmosphere in this country that is Jim Crow at its almost worst (without the whips and the overseers).

The endorsement of hate was introduced by the worst President of this country ever, Donald Trump, who sparked mass shootings of minorities ,school children. Instead of lynchings we now do shootings. We have heard on this Senate floor heinous threats of Senators on Senators.

(Wait Dr. King is raising his hand, pointing his finger. You can hear a pin drop, ladies and gentlemen.)

Now, I have a dream that must become real, this body should not be remembered as the one that took away voting rights in the United States of America.

This body is the the congress that will forever be known as the American Reichstag that turned the country over to the Fourth Reich.

This Senate should not be the one that strikes from the Constitution, Article 15, ratified in 1870 on February 3, 152 years ago.

(Voices are buzzing in the crowd, the tension is thick.)

  1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude
  2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation

(Roars, boos, applause intense, impassioned, vigorous fills the chamnber, I do not believe what I just heard, ladies and gentlemen.)

Is this Senate is this house going to take the responsibility for suppressing  the vote in elections this fall, by ignoring the obscene laws being passed to crush the minority votes across the country?

Ask yourself Republicans who have stood on the side of decency once very long in 1965, can you not summon an ounce of courage to vote to eliminate the filibuster?

Send it to the floor. Let the Senate have its say

Then you all will own it.

There’s a dream I want you to realize tonight.

Better yet all Republicans should vote yes to eliminate the filibuster, then bring the Voting Rights to the floor, with the proviso that the filibuster will be reinstated.

There I have given you a way to do it.

There’s even a greater dream. The Republicans can all vote to eliminate the filibuster and then repudiate the hate I saw in the 1960s by unanimously approving the bill, shaming the two Democrats refusing to vote to preserve voting rights.

(There is awed silence, ladies and gentleman.)

You do not have to be afraid, Republicans and Democrats. It is the easiest and the right way out of this fear of Trump wrath. He has no power unless you give it to him.

You are about to give it to him and endorse a dictatorship. Support for him is make him an overseer, and he will use more than whips. He will suppress the media. He will curtail the internet websites. He will charge reporters with insurrection, or God knows what else. He has already stocked the courts with justices whom I have no faith in because of their lack of reason.

You now have a Supreme Court that has the same reason as the court that made the Dread Scott decision that started the Civil War. We have Court that that restricts appropriate health care for women. You in this body have participate in this courts decisions by not voting legislation overturning the court decisions on women’s help. Yes, you could do that, but you are too afraid.

Right now the man about to turn American into a white plantation who has enslaved you to do his bidding under threat of flogging through his own fixed elections.

You are as enslaved as the blacks of the past.

(A din of angry boos coming from the Republican side of the Senate, ladies and gentlemen, some are walking out. Dr King waiting until the din subsides. He is reaching under the podium, he is withdrawing a book. It is The Bible)

I dream that all 100 of you have a sense –conscience and an awareness of history.

An awareness of the holiness of the vote.

I suggest you listen to your mind tonight the voice within telling you what you should do.  Please do not send America back to repression of the past and pave the way for God knows what.

May the almighty guide your decision.

I know, I KNOW, this dream has to come true, for persons white, Negro, Latino, Indian, Asian, Muslim, Arabic all the citizens and people who are in America because they love what it stands for and will always stand for –for them, not the politicians

Thank you.

Please do your duty!

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MONDAY NIGHT AT 7 WHITE PLAINS WEEK THE JANUARY 12 REPORT WITH JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS ON FIOS COUNTYWIDE CH 45 AND WP OPTIMUM CH 76 AND WORLD WIDE ON WWW.WPCOMMUNITYMEDIA.ORG

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ANTISEMITISM ON THE COURT–COUNTY EXECUTIVE LATIMER ORGANIZES FORUM ON SECTION I SPORTS BEHAVIOR IN SECTIONALS.

LATEST RESEARCH FINDINGS ON FALL COVID VACCINES FROM DR. KATELYN JETELINA

THE BIG WHITE IS NO PROBLEM FOR WHITE PLAINS DPW…THEN RAIN MOPS IT UP

SALES TAX $$ IN WP AND WESTCHESTER FLAT. COUNTY HAS $23 MILLION DEFICIT.  THE CASE OF THE MISSING INFLATION. 

 

JOHN BAILEY AND THE NEWS

EVERY WEEK ON WHITE PLAINS WEEK FOR 23 YEARS

REPORTING THE NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW.

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LATEST RESEARCH SHOWS NEW FALL COVID VACCINES EFFECTIVE . “HIGHLY” EFFECTIVE WITH CHILDREN. NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR CARDIAC ARREST CASES IN CHILDREN. THE MORE SHOTS YOU GET THE MORE YOU ARE PROTECTED. COVID SPREADING FASTER: TRANSMISSION OCCURS WITHIN 1 HOUR

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Si quiere leer la versión en español, pulse aquí.


There are several new scientific developments regarding Covid-19 that might be useful to you, given that we are in a big wave right now. Here is a quick research roundup.

(Note: I will dive deeper into long Covid next week. We’ve learned a lot more over the past year. Stay tuned.)

Fall 2023 vaccines are effective

What we know: Recommendations for an updated 2023 Covid-19 vaccine were based on lab and some human data. We didn’t have real-world data or clinical trial efficacy data. (This follows a similar model to the flu.)

New info: Vaccine effectiveness data is rolling in:

  • 70% effectiveness against hospitalization (preprint; Netherlands; among 60+ year-olds previously vaccinated).
  • Another study found significant added protection for (at least) 30 days against emergency department use, outpatient use, and hospitalization. (Kaiser; among those over 18 years.)

Why does this matter? If you’re up-to-date on vaccines, you can be confident it’s providing additional protection.

Vaccines help protect against long covid

What we know: Vaccines have many benefits, including preventing long covid. We didn’t know the incremental benefit of additional doses.

New info: A recent study showed that the more vaccines you get, the less likely you will get long covid. This is called a dose-response relationship: One dose of vaccine reduces risk by 21%, 2 doses reduce by 59%, and 3+ doses reduce by 73%.

Why does it matter? Most people still pay attention to Covid-19 to prevent long covid. Keeping up with vaccines helps a lot.

Children and vaccines

New info: We’ve been lacking real-world effectiveness data among children lately. The evidence is flooding in now. Four recent studies show:

  • Vaccines were highly effective against infection and severe disease across all pandemic periods. Across 4 Nordic countries, for example, there was 73% vaccine effectiveness against severe disease among adolescents. The risk difference was 2 per 10,000 adolescents vaccinated.
  • Vaccines are safe. The rate and cause of sudden cardiac death in young people was not due to vaccines during the pandemic. One study even included autopsy investigations.

Transmission takes hours

New info: Transmission increased linearly by 1% chance per hour. Most transmission resulted from exposures lasting one hour to several days. Households accounted for 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions.

Figure from Ferretti et al., 2023.. Nature. Source here.

Why does this matter? Transmission = time x proximity. This may help your risk calculations. Quick passersby at a grocery store are far less risky than staying in a house with someone infected.

JN.1 is more severe?

New info: Lab data suggests that JN.1 (the dominant subvariant today) is more severe on a microscopic level than other Omicron variants.

Why does this matter? We don’t know whether this has implications on an individual level (i.e., feeling more crappy). But, it does not seem to affect a population level (hospitalizations are less common than last year). Regardless, it may be worth doubling down on protections right now.

Covid-19 viral load peaking later

What we knew: The virus and our immunity wall have changed significantly over time, which may have implications for antigen testing.

New info: A new study showed that, during the Omicron era, viral load peaked (i.e., had low values in the graph below) on days 3-4. This is very different than the beginning of the pandemic when it peaked at the start of symptoms. (They also looked at the flu, which peaked on days 1-2.)

Original image from Frediani et al., 2023; Annotations by YLE

Why does this matter? You may not reliably test positive on a rapid antigen test until the third, fourth, or even fifth day of symptoms. This raises questions on how best to use tests, too, like with Paxlovid (which needs to be given within 5 days of symptoms) and isolation.

No seasonality?

What we knew: Other viruses are sensitive to temperatures, partially explaining the seasonality patterns of flu and the common cold, for example.

What’s new: A recent animal study suggested SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not driven by temperature or humidity changes. SARS-CoV-2 remains capable of transmission under a variety of temperature and humidity conditions. This is surprising.

Why does this matter? We will likely continue to see multiple waves per year, as human behavior and immune status dominantly determine when we get waves of Covid-19 infection, not the environment.

Bottom line

Although we are four years into this thing, we still learn every day. Yes, science can still help us make better and more informed decisions.

You’re now caught up.

Love, YLE


“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, M.P.H. Ph.D.—an epidemiologist, wife. During the day, she is a senior scientific consultant to several organizations, including CDC. At night, she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health world so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support this effort, subscribe below:

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