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306 NEW CASES IN WESTCHESTER JULY 23-29,  

980 IN MONTH. UP FROM 826 IN JUNE. 

HIGHEST WEEK OF INFECTIONS IN 5 MONTHS

WPCNR COVID SURVEILLANCE. From the New York Covid Tracker. Observation and Analysis By John F. Bailey. July 31, 2023:

Westchester experienced its third consecutive week of more persons coming down with lab-verified cases of covid since declining the first week in July. The county was reported by the state with 306 cases the week of July 23-29.

Last week saw a continuation of more infections immediately after the weekend, the daily cases last week Sunday through Saturday were 28, 38, 47,37,56,46,and 54,  an average of 44 new cases a day. Westchester has not seen this consistent level of lab-verified infections since the second week of March (354)  and third week of the same month (238).

The daily AVERAGE  covid infections repoted was 5 persons per 100,000 persons last week. The population of Westchester is 1,004,000. Multiplying 5 persons times 10.04 means 50 person a day caught covid. If this  rate continues this would give Westchester  344 new cases a week, or 2,410 for the month.

There could be a number of easons for this sharp increase in the daily infection rate: People are definitely socializing more at beaches, concerts, it is summer vacation. People are hardly masking at all. They are not socially distancing. Many according to the CDC have not gotten the bivalent booster. (CDC reports only 17% of the nation have gotten the booster.

Reporting only lab-verified cases creates a false sense of confidence that the disease is spreading at a less rate than it actually is, so we are more confident not taking personal precautions.

Antigen tests (the home covid test kit)  may tell persons they are positive, but unless they have symptoms they may ignore having it verified. But and this is a big but, they may be carriers of the didease in their nose and mouth. Everytime they breathe they spread the disease.

Last week show 306 Westchester residents catching covid two weeks ago there were  212 new cases. This means those 212 spread the disease to roughly 4 pers (1.4) who in turn may spread it to 4 others per person. This Spread Rate has been the same for the past two weeks. It tells me the disease is likely to spread quicker if present behavior continues.