LOWER TESTING CREATES LOWER COVID POSITIVES. COMFORTS A PUBLIC EAGER FOR PANDEMIC TO BE OVER. COVID SITUATION UNEASY. WE DON’T HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION. WE NEED MORE NOT LESS. AND NOT NONE.
WPCNR CORONAVIRUS SURVEILLANCE. Statistics from NY Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. February 27, 2023:
Westchester County lowered new cases of covid to 497 through Friday.
The county is on track to finish approximately 570 new persons testing positive for covid (Lab-Verified) the week of February 19 through 25. The figure would be about 70 less than last week’s total of new positives (642).
The 570 total would mark the 9th straight week Westchester new cases have declined.
In the Mid-Hudson Region of Westchester, Orange, Rockland Dutchess, Ulster, Putnam and Dutchess have reported 986 cases (197 A DAY) for 5 of the 6 days. Nassau and Suffolk Counties however reported 1087 new cases, an average of 217 a day.
The cases across the region of all 9 counties continue to run almost 70% of all of New York City pace of covid, that Friday was 578 new cases for all 5 boroughs, compared to the 9 county total of 392 (68% of the NYC-resident nubers).
Friday (one single day), the Mid Hudson Region reported that 5,061 Lab Tested persons were tested and 167 were positive a 3% infection rate of those tested. This 3% rate still means, though lowering, the region still contributes 200 persons a day in new positive cases, about 1,400 new positives a week. I believe this indicates quite a lag between total new cases for a week as reported by the number of infections a day per 100,000 of population.
In the Mid-Hudson region for 5 days last week, the daily new cases per 100,000 average over the 9 counties was 7.4 new cases per 100,000 of population.
The population of the 7 counties is the Mid-Hudson region is 2,232,635. That means there are 22.33 — 100,000 sections in the Mid-Hudson region.
Multiply the Mid-Hudson region 7.4 average new cases a day by 22.3 you get in reality 172 new cases a day, 1,203 new cases a week and 4,815 new cases a day a month. From February 1 through February 24, the Mid-Hudson County through 18 days reported 4,479 cases. The daily average when computed to the accurate total of population segments is definitely lower than the actual number of infections for the DAY AND month.
This situation I think is caused by a lag in lab-verified tests of persons finally deciding to get tested by a lab after testing positive taking an antigen test.
The state policy reporting the daily average new infections a day per county produces less anxiety by presenting the information to the average reader giving a false sense that you and me as a region are doing ok.
We are not O.K.–
If you present the daily average infection rate as the number per 100K of population without stating the total population of the county reported.
The reality of 172 cases a day for all 7 counties the last week is a much stronger spread of the disease than the grid would indicate per day day — presents.
Thank you for making us feel better, New York State by presenting the misleading average daily numbers in terms 100k of the actual counties instead of the total of the 100,000 segments each county has.
When Westchester reports Friday the county had 6.1 cases per 100,000 of population that sounds much better than printing 61. What do you think?
On Long Island, the Nassau and Suffolk Counties, (for weeks, the leaders in new covid cases with 300 to 600 new infections weekly than the Mid-Hudson region the effects of covid) are this:
Those two counties have 2, 900,000 in population. The last three weeks of February the counties onLong Island averaged 21.4 daily average infections. They have 29 segments of 100,000 population.
Multiplying 29 times 21.4 infections daily per 100,000 population produces 620 infections a day, 4,340 infections a week, 28,000 a month. You see the lag effect there.
The “Happy Stats” of not presenting the real-time situation, the accumulative affect and projecting what it means in 4 weeks time may get the economy going, but it makes me uneasy of what a “Comfy with Covid” could mean.
New York City reported 26,000 lab-verified tests Friday. Of those persons tested, 3% tested positive or 578.
New York City reports 8,804,000 in population . That is 88.04 segments of 100,000 persons. This means that NYC (all 5 boroughs) is possibly seeing 50,000 new infections a day.. 350,000 in a week and 1,400,000 in a month.
But you don’t know if this nightmare progression is possible unless you test more and zero in on the exact numbers. The current stats do not project ahead!
At 3% positive testing trends, on 25.000 lab-verified tests daily this computes to 203,548 covid positives in a month, not 1,400,000.
That is still a lot of “walking covid.”
Walking, mingling, infecting covid making persons miserable when they were thinkin “It is OK now.”
But we do not know if this progression comes true or not—but the new variant is spreading faster according to observing epidemioligists. One million with covid is not what you want in New York City. 200,000 is not what you want.
You do not want to get covid. The hospitals as filled as they are with covid patients and flu patients that we hear from anecdotal sources. and the casual mention of it in the media.
What I surmise is that at the current 3% infection rate on 25,000 New York City Lab-Tests, each infected person infects 6 persons each. So those 578 infections this week in NYC could infect 3,468 persons in shorter than two weeks time.
What this says to me, is health officials must provide more explicit information. No matter if it is bad news and hurts business.
More testing must be done before infected people with covid escalate cases to unmanageable levels, and more medicine is needed in exponential quantities that we cannot get.
Are we controlling the disease or aren’t we? What is control? How adequate are our health resources right now? We need the thinking the Governor Andrew Cuomo brought to supplying information. Detailed, “lift-you-out-of-your-chair ready to change your behavior”
No one is writing about this. No one is thinking about this at the state level.
Not knowing the real situation or worse, ignoring it, and not wanting to know guarantees the disease covid will have its way.