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WESTCHESTER 7 DAY SPREAD BY POPULATION: 391 – ON TRACK FOR CLOSE TO 3,000 INFECTIONS…

WPCNR COVID DAILY. From the New York State Covid Tracker. Observation & Analysis by John F. Bailey. June 2, 2022UPDATED 7:21 P.M. EDT:

The New York State Covid Tracker reported 349 Covid Positives in Westchester County yesterday without an explanation of any sort that the total of 349 was the cumulative positives for  the last 4 days Saturday, the 28^th, Sunday the 29^th, Memorial Day the 30^th and Tuesday, May 31^st.

ON JUNE 1, the Covid Tracker reported late this afternoon, 398 testing positive Wednesday on 4,775 tested an 8.4% positve rate, bringing the county total since Sunday to 747, or 186 positives a day that would register 1,302 positive for the week if that pace continued. On Wednesday, the 9 counties surrounding Westchester reported 1,815 positive cases on June 1, yesterday, which is 73% of the 2,484 new positive cases New York City experienced Wednesday. IF the 398 level continues in that level of positives , the week total could reach 2,902 for the week by Saturday continuing the 3,000 a week pace for Westchester alone.

As WPCNR reported Monday, the state in a  Governor Kathy Hochul covid update on May 17^th   said they would suspend reporting of test results over Memorial Weekend in this note  pictured below:

WPCNR asked the Governor’s Press Office this morning if the Tuesday results were cumulative for all 4 days, since there was no special disclaimer on the standard state format explaining it was (or was not a 4 day total covering the 28^th,29^th,30^th, 31^st total positive tests for all the counties by county.

So, assuming as the state did exactly what they said they would do, the 349 new positives for Westchester are a total of the Saturday, Sunday Monday Tuesday positive results, which as the graphic from yesterday shows 349 positives for Westchester, let’s go to see what this appears to show:

The 349 new positive test results on 3,017 tests those last 4 days yield a 12.4% infection rate.

It is a little uneasy to realize that that infection rate the last 4 days is the highest infection rates since  the week of January 9^th to the 15th when we were testing 13,000 to 14,000 a day. On January 15 there were 17,534 tests with 2,171 infections (12.4%) This means that a lot more persons are spreading the disease right now than we know have it.   WPCNR  finds this a matter of concern.

A second way of measuring spread is the Positives per 100,000 metric that as WPCNR pointed out Monday gives a false impression of how good the counties across the state, including Westchester are doing. Last night, I broke out the state metric put out yesterday for the 9 counties surrounding New York City by total population.

Here is what I found:

MID-HUDSON  AVG DAILY POS/100k   2020 POP.     7 DAY POSITIVES

WESTCHESTER           36                            1,004,456                  391  

ORANGE                     31                             401,310                     124    

ROCKLAND                 31                             338,329                    115

DUTCHESS                 27                              293,293                      80

ULSTER                       26                              177,716                       46

PUTNAM                    32                                97,668                       32

SULLIVAN                   37                                78,624                        29

7 COUNTIES            220 (31 avg)               2,391,396                     817 (117 avg)

This means Westchester is averaging for last 7 days, 400 new positives weekly tops in the Mid-Hudson Region in spread, and each of the 7 counties including Westchester is averaging 117 new positives a week and 817 positives a week from all 7 counties combined.

It is easy to see why a positives per 100,000 calculation is more comforting for the Center for Disease Control to rely on. It has the effect of diminishing the scope of the spread across the nation and New York State over 7 days.

Down on Long Island, Nassau County and Suffolk showed these figures yesterday for previous 4 days.

                        AVG  DAILY POS./100K         2020 POP          7 DAY POSITIVES WEEK

NASSAU                      44.7                           1,355,090                           609

SUFFOLK                     39.2                            1,525,290                          594

 All 9 Counties combined for 2,020 new positives last week.

Take into account the figures for New York City on yesterday WPCNR COVIDSTOPPERS NOTEBOOK, and you can note that all 9 counties were counted for 1,949 new positives, compared to 2,802 for New York City. 

The aberration caused by suspended counts the last  5 days has created perhaps too much of an impression that covid is over.

The numbers say otherwise.

Last week from May 15 to  21, Westchester had 3,510 infections, this week May 22 through  28, giving Saturday 87 new positives, the total for the week was 2,553 infections 27% less than last week.

We await tonight’s report.