WPCNR CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS. By John F. Bailey. August 25, 2021 UPDATED 11 PM EDT AUGUST 25:
THIS JUST IN: The Tuesday NY State Covid Tracker confirmed a third straight day of a spread rate the controls growth of new covid cases below the 1 person infects 1 other person stable spread ratio.
On Tuesday, 176 new cases were reported out of 5,593 tested, an infection rate of 3.1% of those tested. Significantly, two weeks ago on August 10, there were 215 new cases, meaning that over 14 days those 215 new infected persons infected less than one person, and more significantly the numbers the last three days lowered the close to 200 new cases Westchester saw all last week. The decline to stable infection spread began on Saturday, August 21 when the spread hit 1:1.
The rate at which new persons getting Covid-19 are infecting new persons has been lowering for 10 days (dating back).
Westchester County continues to spread the disease at an average 3% of new positives a day, but the number of new positives directly relates to the number of new cases 14 days prior. (Fourteen days is the incubation period for the covid disease to show symptoms)
On Sunday and Monday, the rate of which new persons testing positive 14 days before infected new daily cases reported in the county Sunday and Monday was directly proportional to number of new cases Sunday and Monday.
On Sunday, August 22, 154 new cases were reported out of 4,787 tested. On Sunday, August 8, 14 days ago, 168 persons tested positive and 14 days later August 22, 154 tested positive. The 168 cases two weeks ago Sunday infected 154 persons, resulting in a 1 person to .9 persons infected. (That is found by dividing the 154 cases by the 168 new cases two weeks ago.
The actual Westchester Spread Rate is almost never discussed by State or local officials. But it is easy to figure out, and as we can see the new cases testing positive two weeks ago are infecting less people.
To determine the Westchester Spread Rate at which new positive cases each day produce new infections for a date two weeks later you divide the number of positives today and divide them by the number of positives on the date two weeks previously.
The lower spread rate happened again Monday.
Westchester County reported 146 new persons testing positive for covid Monday August 23 of 4,210 tested. a 3.5% new infection rate not good at all, but, going back to August 9, 14 days prior there were 161 new infections. Divide 161 into 146 and you find that the 161 infections two weeks ago resulted in infecting .9 again. This is a good news trend.
In fact since August 8, the number of persons each new infection has resulted in infecting has been going down to now when it has declined two days one person infecting just 1 other person, to wit:
August 9: 161 new infections 2.2 positives for every 1 infected on July 26 when there were 74 new infections
August 10: 215 new infections , 2.6 positives for every 1 infected on July 27 when there were 82 new infections
August 11: 228 new infections or 1.7 persons for every 1 infected on July 28 when there were 129 new infections
August 12: 202 new infections or 1.5 persons for every 1 infected on July 29 when there were 140 new infections
August 13: 186 new infections or or 1.0 persons infected for every 1 infected July 30 when there 186 new infections
August 14: 208 new infections or 1.5 persons infected for every 1 infected July 31 when there were 137 new infections
August 15: 146 new infections or 1.5 persons infected for every 1 infected Aug 1 when there were 98 new infections
August 16: 189 new infections or 1.3 persons infected for every 1 infected Aug 2 when there were 147 new infections
August 17: 234 new infections or 1.7 persons infected for every 1 infected Aug 3 , when there 139 new infections
August 18: 243 new infections or 1.3 persons infected for every 1 infected Aug.. 4, when there were 183 new infections
August 19: 232 new infections or 1.5 persons infected for every 1 infected Aug 5 when there were 148 new infections
August 20: 230 new infections or 1.2 persons infected for every 1 infected August 6 when there were 192 new infections
August 21: 151 new infections or 1.1 persons infected for every 1 infected August 7 when there were 134 new infections
August 22: 154 new infections or .90 persons infected for every 1 infected August 8 when there were 168 new infections
August 23: 146 new infections or .90 persons infected for every 1 infected August 9 when there were 161 new infections
AUGUST 24: 176 NEW INFECTIONS or .8 PERSONS INFECTED FOR EVERY 1 INFECTED AUGUST 10 WHEN 215 WERE INFECTED