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WPCNR CORONAVIRUS BULLETIN. News and Comment From New York State Covid Tracker. By John F. Bailey August 12, 2021:
Yesterday Westchester County tested 7,779 residents for Covid and saw new infections climb from 215 Tuesday to 228 yesterday.
The infection rate yesterday declined which is a false positive, because the tested number was higher, but at this rate, the infections the last 7 days from August 4 through yesterday August 11 will create a super spreader disaster Labor Day Week.
Here’s the math.
In 14 days (approximately August 25 just a week before the next big summer weekend and subsequent religious holidays), the 1,420 new infections during the last week, each will infect 7 others or have already been infecting others up until the day they tested positive.
This new Delta variant and covid-19 combination 1-2 Covid wave created by the “it’s over” attitude of the July 4th weekend is turning into a viral tsunami.
That’s what the exponential numbers of spread dynamics tells me.
Hitting a consistent over 200 new infections each day the 228 tested positive yesterday will pass the variant or the covid 19 to 7 other persons. By August 25—14 days 1,596 new infections could appear from the contacts made by the 228 August 11 positives alone for covid until yesterday.
If you take into account all 1,420 new infections in Westchester the last 7 days aggregate of them could produce 10,000 new infections by August 25 to September 1. They will have without knowing it already will have spread disease wherever they have gone or whomever they were with—brothers, sisters, parents, grandparents, friends, acquaintances for two weeks not knowing they themselves were sick and carriers of this deadly of all plagues ever.
The decisions as to what to do have to made now.
The decisions about safe opening of schools have to be made now as New Jersey’s Governor did Monday.
New York’s Health Commissioner has said it is up to the schools how they open: No oversight, no analysis by the state
The decisions cannot be what people want or consider convenient or “normal.”
The decisions cannot be decided in general consensus in town meetings, town halls or listening opportunities to gather what people think we should do.
The last time we were spreading infections in Westchester at 10,000 a week or even close to it was on January 1, 2021 when Westchester had 1,000 positives on a New Year’s week.
That takes my breath away.
Because if every positive now out there has interacted with 7 people, what the unfortunate 1,420 will generate the last 7 days may generate 9,996 new positives.
I truly hope I am wrong but that is just the simple, very hard uncompromising math.