Hits: 624

WPCNR CORONAVIRUS INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. News Comment by John F. Bailey

WPCNR has analyzed the four weeks of Corona positives reported in Westchester County, a total of 11,966 persons reported tested positive from February  9 through March 7, and I have found  the Westchester County hospitalization rate may be higher than the reported state average of 3.5%.

How high does it seem to be?

Of the 6,264 persons reported positive in the 14 days from February 9 to Feb. 22 (447 persons a day), WPCNR estimated at the time that at a 3.5% hospitalization rate, the county would show 15 hospitalizations a day or 210 hospitalizations within a 10 to 15 day period.

Monday County Executive George Latimer reported there were 270 hospitalizations in Westchester County .

Using dead reckoning, (acknowledging the ominous rise may be made up of spillover hospitalizations from positives from Feb 15 to Feb 22 falling ill enough from covid to hospitalized in the week of Feb 23 to March 8) this could mean the hospitalization rate is not the generally accepted  “3.5 TO 4%” (Even the Governor does not tell you specifically what the state hospitalization rate is on a regular basis.) but 4.3% , 269 of 6,264.

If “only 3.5%” of persons testing positive  (6,264)over two weeks (from Feb 9 to Feb 22) then the hospitalizations on February 23 would be 210. Instead they were 270 as of Saturday or 4.3% being hospitalized from the Feb 9 through Feb 22 period. (Again this may appear to be hospitalizations left from the Jan 26 to Feb 9 two weeks, but we do not  know.)

Yes, I know there is overlap with persons getting infected from February 15 to February 22 perhaps not taking as ill in that first week.

However this would mean the hospitalizations will perhaps be higher the third week in March than 4.3% in the February 9 to Feb 15 cohort

What can we expect in  hospitalizations the two weeks of the new positives from February 23 through March 8, a total of 5,702 ( 407 new positives a day in Westchester County) come into the hospitals?

Let’s take a look:

From February 23 through March 8 (yesterday) 5,702 tested positive. If that unfortunate group begins to get seriously ill with covid at a 3.5% rate the county could expect to see hospitalizations of 14 persons a day  perhaps beginning 5 days from infection or 126 persons a day for the 9 days beginning February 27

Another way of looking at it , if the 4.3% rate continues we may see hospitalizations from this second period of 17 persons a day beginning 5 days after the beginning of the February 23 two week interval) this would result in 153 new hospitalizations, that would compound the infection spillovers from the February 9 to February 22 two week period.

The question is what is the real infection rate. Is it 4.3%, or less? If it is approaching 4.5% why?

Are the new infections being seen more serious? Do they last longer or shorter as authorities are telling us, or not telling us.

We need more information than we are getting.

Saying hospitalizations are down 50% does not mean we are doing better if new infections are still averaging 400 new infections a day.

Does that mean the disease is being treated better? Or does it mean they are not getting as sick from Covid? Or does it mean more are getting infected because of over eagerness to get back to normal? (And politicians mad rush to revive the economy.)

If the hospitalization gets up to 5% that last figure of 150 persons could easily mean 200 a week in new hospitalizations which would not be good for overstressed doctors nurses and hospitals. The more people get the disease the more chronic their after recovery conditions may be.

I also believe Westchester should be getting much more vaccines than we are getting. We were only at 11% fully vaccinated as of Monday. We have a long way to go.

I would also mask up and not take chances of getting this disease.

This is not meant to frighten and make you feel badly.

It is to keep making you feel good.