JULY 8– COVID SETS STAGE FOR SURGE IN INFECTIONS IN JULY IN WESTCHESTER

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  WPCNR WESTCHESTER COVID LOG.From the New York State Covid Tracker, Observation and analysis by John F. Bailey July 8, 2024:

Westchester County reported 2,540 new cases of Covid through  June 30, 363 a day. The case rate has been rising all month of June

For the 7 days ended July 2, Westchester  averaged 10.1 new cases a day per 100,000 people. With a county population of 1,400 000 new cases per day times 10.04, that is 102 cases a day, or 710 a WEEK.

If that 10 persons a day per 100,000 figure does not go down or worse rises, this means in July we will see 2,839 new cases at the present rate of 1 person infecting 2!

If the number of Westchester new cases rises to 15 a day that will mean 4,216 new covid cases a week. 

Should it balloon to 20 new cases a day that creates 5,622 new cases a week, over 20,000. And the covid lab continues to create new variants. If you are not fully vaccinated through the June Booster, you are a sitting duck.

Here’s why

Last June 2023, Westchester reported 826 cases.

In July 2023 after the July 4 break,  that created 1,064 cases in July.

Look at the situation we face:

The 826 cases  spread to 1098 others with 1 person infected in June spreading to 3 others others. Granted the three persons each covid June case spread it to in July included persons  infected by June covid cases when covid had a 1 week to 10 days before showing symptoms. The July covid cases who got covid from those infected in June, then  spread to those they associated with in July.

Looking at my spread log from last July  weekly  totals the spread rate per week at its highest was 1 July covid case spreading it to up to  4 persons, the highest was 1 spreading it to 6.

 The weekly new infections were in July 2023: 192,133,212,260, 306,134 adding to  1,064.

Add the August Weekly infections, 490, 788, 858,749, 964 for a total of 3,849 you come up with 4,913 through July and August traceable to the June spread of 826 cases.

The July August Spread of 2023 of 4,913 cases produced 4,629 cases.

Taking into account the 24 hours to spread LN-1 variant just identified by the Center for Disease Control, the Westchester County 10 new cases per day rate troubles me.

I fear that the lack of persons fully vaccinated or who have not gotten their booster now available creates the potential for an exponential spread of the LN-1 varient because more persons are going to infect others fastee (within 2 days!)

Covid is spreading faster.

Last week through July was the 20th of 23   consecutive weeks  since May that covid cases have risen steady and the 7th consecutive week we have seen a rise.  You simply must be careful folks with this new variant LN-1 out there.

I expect it will decline this last week the 30th of June through July 6  because of the July 4th holiday.

But the bulge in Monday through Friday cases shows the effects of the LN-1 varient, over 100 cases a day the last two weeks Monday through Friday:

From June Monday the 16 to Friday the 21st: 134,124,103,116.102

From June Monday the 24 to Friday June 21: 155,131,124,103,116,102!

That’s when people go back to work and into the workplace.

The hospitalizations in White Plains Hospital shows rate of those admitted and being found with covid continues steady  around 50%.

In the last two weeks,  June 20 to July 5, 79 persons were admitted to White Plains Hospital and 37 or 47% tested positive for covid after admission.

From May 31 to July 5—the last 5 weeks, 147 persons were admitted to WHP and 92 once admitted were found with covid—62%.

The hot weather, proximity in air conditioned cooling centers, shoulder to shoulder on the beach will contribute to covid spread.

I eagerly await the October vaccine booster. We are going to need it.